Texas Winter 2022-2023

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Am I wrong in that the situation was the opposite just a few days ago...Euro was on team cold, GFS warm. Now the opposite? If so, why would you assume the Euro is right when it flip-flopped as well? It would be hard to say what to trust in that situation to me.

Lol a couple days ago this forum was team “the upgrade ruined the GFS it can’t be trusted” now it’s team “GFS is king and euro can’t be trusted”. This is why I always like to see what wxman57 has to say when everyone is behind one solution just for devils advocate if nothing else. Either way, I think we would all like to see some run to run consensus across all models.

Trust not OP beyond day 5 . The only almost promise is that wxman57s dream of an 80F Christmas is likely not going to happen.

Hell, his compromise of a 60 degree Christmas isn't happening.

[Texas Snow]

Oh I agree on 5 days out and really 72 hours for precip maps, but we have already snow maps on here for 10-12 days from now.

[Ntxw]

Euro weekly extends this pattern through New Years. Second week or so of January the Pacific becomes unfavorable but we keep the -AO. Then Pacific shows another -EPO spike after that.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro weekly extends this pattern through New Years. Second week or so of January the Pacific becomes unfavorable but we keep the -AO. Then Pacific shows another -EPO spike after that.

Imagine that, our constructive phases of the MJO (Winter weather favorable ones) doing their monthly dance!

[Ntxw]

Euro weekly extends this pattern through New Years. Second week or so of January the Pacific becomes unfavorable but we keep the -AO. Then Pacific shows another -EPO spike after that.

Imagine that, our constructive phases of the MJO (Winter weather favorable ones) doing their monthly dance!

With a weakened SPV, there would be a risk of an SSW. Like in 2020-2021 season bottom up warming that eventually goes top town, feedback.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro weekly extends this pattern through New Years. Second week or so of January the Pacific becomes unfavorable but we keep the -AO. Then Pacific shows another -EPO spike after that.

Imagine that, our constructive phases of the MJO (Winter weather favorable ones) doing their monthly dance!

With a weakened SPV, there would be a risk of an SSW. Like in 2020-2021 season bottom up warming that eventually goes top town, feedback.

Yeah the SSW talk has been heating up the last couple of days.

[Haris]

Been mad busy these last few months so havent been around in a while, but excited for the upcoming season! May we all get pummeled with snow

[DallasAg]

CPC Heavy Snow guidance looks great for NTX and OK!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ntours.png

[Ntxw]

This doesn't relate to most of us but at this rate the pattern change storm will probably end up an Amarillo blizzard . What's a few hundred miles of shifting up north?

[Ntxw]

CPC Heavy Snow guidance looks great for NTX and OK!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ntours.png

This is the period where cold air is in place and guidance shows shortwaves to the west, southwest. Setting up for the bigger blast of cold.

[Iceresistance]

Saved the image so no one can forget it!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours-1.png

[Ntxw]

18z GFS while not bitter up north, unloads whatever cold is up there due to the blocking. US becomes Canada and Canada becomes the US. Big shortwave kicking out of the southwest.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS while not bitter up north, unloads whatever cold is up there due to the blocking. US becomes Canada and Canada becomes the US. Big shortwave kicking out of the southwest.

I was just about to say that, someone (likely me and other Oklahoma peeps) is about to get absolutely dumped on the 18z GFS.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS while not bitter up north, unloads whatever cold is up there due to the blocking. US becomes Canada and Canada becomes the US. Big shortwave kicking out of the southwest.

I was just about to say that, someone (likely me and other Oklahoma peeps) is about to get absolutely dumped on the 18z GFS.

This was the delivery method Feb 2021 (again not saying temperatures) but you're basically dislodging the Arctic. Cold 1st then comes the systems.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS while not bitter up north, unloads whatever cold is up there due to the blocking. US becomes Canada and Canada becomes the US. Big shortwave kicking out of the southwest.

I was just about to say that, someone (likely me and other Oklahoma peeps) is about to get absolutely dumped on the 18z GFS.

This was the delivery method Feb 2021 (again not saying temperatures) but you're basically dislodging the Arctic. Cold 1st then comes the systems.

I don't think the temperatures are going to be that cold, yet.

However! It really looks like that the Arctic Cannon has fired towards here on the 18z GFS!

[Iceresistance]

Now the 18z GFS is trolling us!

[harp]

So far on this run, nobody really gets anything.

[WinterMax]

The Euro and EPS are showing off the scale -EPO, but is it just their bluff?

I have been maybe the biggest cold monger ever, but I’m 60 now and have been hit with some heath issues. It’s 76 here in south central Louisiana, and that’s too warm, but if I had to live an entire winter of highs in the 50s every day I would be miserable, too cold. This is new for me, like since this year, give me low humidity and a high of 68, and I’d be happy.

Now, if it’s gonna be cold, give me snow, otherwise nope !

[Iceresistance]

So far on this run, nobody really gets anything.

Even another system did not give us snow, a lot of rain though.

[bubba hotep]

It won't take much more shifting in the models to really put N. TX & OK under the gun for svr wx next week.