Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Radar returns from SJT starting to light up around the Big Bend. Moving NE.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
It’s still odd to me that as the ULL brings deeper cold it warms up and becomes ZR or rain. That’s not what usually happens. Usually it becomes snow.
Is the rain supposed to be so heavy it basically drags down warm air?
Is the rain supposed to be so heavy it basically drags down warm air?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
DallasAg wrote:Radar returns from SJT starting to light up around the Big Bend. Moving NE.
Makes you wonder if the lull in activity will be short lived judging by the position of the moisture stream. Looks like Abilene is back in the mix currently.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Looks like NAM was probably right...most of the moisture appears to be setting up north of us down here. Good luck DFW guys!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
15 minute commute from Keller to my office at 820 and 35 in Fort Worth this morning took 30 minutes. Very slick out there, Beach st is a major artery in Fort Worth and it was pretty much an ice rink with a little sleet traction. I could’ve worked from home but what’s the fun in that when icy road challenges await! Probably won’t be an option tomorrow with freezing rain instead of sleet
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Disclaimer: This is not an official weather forecast. I am only an amateur weather enthusiast therefore any weather forecasts or opinions should be taken with a grain of salt. Hook em Horns!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
rwfromkansas wrote:It’s still odd to me that as the ULL brings deeper cold it warms up and becomes ZR or rain. That’s not what usually happens. Usually it becomes snow.
Is the rain supposed to be so heavy it basically drags down warm air?
Not 100% sure on this, still learning this stuff. We're under an extreme case of temperature inversion. The lid of warm hair has trapped the cold air. Temperature normally cools with height (cold to colder). As the ULL cools the upper layers that lid is slowly removed and the cold air near the surface can rise and revert back to normal. Rising air warms, thus shrinking our bottom cold layer.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Seeing videos of people seeing snowflakes just NW of me..only getting frz rain here. Gatesville and brownwood getting fat flakes im assuming. Im jealous
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
rwfromkansas wrote:It’s still odd to me that as the ULL brings deeper cold it warms up and becomes ZR or rain. That’s not what usually happens. Usually it becomes snow.
Is the rain supposed to be so heavy it basically drags down warm air?
Somewhat counter intuitive but the Temp Inversion dissipates as the ULL gets closer, allowing the dense/shallow cold at surface to mix/lift
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:It’s still odd to me that as the ULL brings deeper cold it warms up and becomes ZR or rain. That’s not what usually happens. Usually it becomes snow.
Is the rain supposed to be so heavy it basically drags down warm air?
Not 100% sure on this, still learning this stuff. We're under an extreme case of temperature inversion. The lid of warm hair has trapped the cold air. Temperature normally cools with height (cold to colder). As the ULL cools the upper layers that lid is slowly removed and the cold air near the surface can rise and revert back to normal. Rising air warms, thus shrinking our bottom cold layer.
Ha Ntxw beat me to it!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I got the mail this morning, I also checked the road and there is a layer of Ice under the sleet.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:It’s still odd to me that as the ULL brings deeper cold it warms up and becomes ZR or rain. That’s not what usually happens. Usually it becomes snow.
Is the rain supposed to be so heavy it basically drags down warm air?
Not 100% sure on this, still learning this stuff. We're under an extreme case of temperature inversion. The lid of warm hair has trapped the cold air. Temperature normally cools with height (cold to colder). As the ULL cools the upper layers that lid is slowly removed and the cold air near the surface can rise and revert back to normal. Rising air warms, thus shrinking our bottom cold layer.
Its gonna be a very interesting situation. I think if if comes across strong then it will be able to generate enough cold from above to counteract the loss of surface cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ralph's Weather wrote:Ntxw wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:It’s still odd to me that as the ULL brings deeper cold it warms up and becomes ZR or rain. That’s not what usually happens. Usually it becomes snow.
Is the rain supposed to be so heavy it basically drags down warm air?
Not 100% sure on this, still learning this stuff. We're under an extreme case of temperature inversion. The lid of warm hair has trapped the cold air. Temperature normally cools with height (cold to colder). As the ULL cools the upper layers that lid is slowly removed and the cold air near the surface can rise and revert back to normal. Rising air warms, thus shrinking our bottom cold layer.
Its gonna be a very interesting situation. I think if if comes across strong then it will be able to generate enough cold from above to counteract the loss of surface cold.
Agreed, I’m thinking we get a dose of snow on it’s way out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I always thought ULLs created their own cold atmosphere
Last edited by harp on Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
That makes sense. If there’s no cold left then I could see it happening. Will see.
Looks like some light returns from azle SW.
Looks like some light returns from azle SW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low sitting over SoCal pumping in a constant stream of moisture directly out of the EPAC ITCZ. We will stay wet with little to no break until the upper low ejects over us later this week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Keller closed tomorrow again. No shock. Thursday is iffy if it gets warmer but I can’t imagine opening until Friday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
rwfromkansas wrote:Keller closed tomorrow again. No shock. Thursday is iffy if it gets warmer but I can’t imagine opening until Friday.
It will still look bad Thursday morning even if it warms up during the day. The eyeball test.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:Keller closed tomorrow again. No shock. Thursday is iffy if it gets warmer but I can’t imagine opening until Friday.
It will still look bad Thursday morning even if it warms up during the day. The eyeball test.
Yeah the morning will still be very slick which is why I’m betting Friday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
rwfromkansas wrote:Ntxw wrote:rwfromkansas wrote:Keller closed tomorrow again. No shock. Thursday is iffy if it gets warmer but I can’t imagine opening until Friday.
It will still look bad Thursday morning even if it warms up during the day. The eyeball test.
Yeah the morning will still be very slick which is why I’m betting Friday.
Outside chance it may even look bad Friday morning. Warm up is mid to upper 30s if being optimistic. Sleet and crust of ice over it is tough to melt quickly.
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