Texas Winter 2022-2023

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aggiecutter
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6121 Postby aggiecutter » Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:56 pm

Talimena Scenic Drive(SE Oklahoma-SW Arkansas) Thursday February 2nd 2023:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klTL4PNyio0
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6122 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:11 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Talimena Scenic Drive(SE Oklahoma-SW Arkansas) Thursday February 2nd 2023:


Link: https://youtu.be/klTL4PNyio0


Fixed it so it can be more visible here ;)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6123 Postby Portastorm » Sat Feb 04, 2023 6:12 pm

I want to cry right now. Just got back from one of our (me and my two labs) favorite walking trails in my neighborhood, it's mostly tree lined. I saw such much devastation. So many beautiful majestic trees either completely destroyed or seriously injured. Even trees with trunks as large as a foot in diameter were snapped. All these wonderful trees that gave us shade in the scorching summer now gone. I honestly cannot recall a more widespread weather disaster in my 39 years here. :cry:

If I never experienced an ice storm again it wouldn’t be soon enough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6124 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Feb 04, 2023 7:56 pm

Portastorm wrote:I want to cry right now. Just got back from one of our (me and my two labs) favorite walking trails in my neighborhood, it's mostly tree lined. I saw such much devastation. So many beautiful majestic trees either completely destroyed or seriously injured. Even trees with trunks as large as a foot in diameter were snapped. All these wonderful trees that gave us shade in the scorching summer now gone. I honestly cannot recall a more widespread weather disaster in my 39 years here. :cry:

If I never experienced an ice storm again it wouldn’t be soon enough.


Terrible news. Here is a clip I came across from one of the local Austin Mets (Tomasco) discussing the amount of tree damage and it being comparable to a CAT 2 Hurricane. Brutal for the region.

 https://twitter.com/averytomascowx/status/1621486704048705538


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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6125 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:48 pm

Portastorm wrote:I want to cry right now. Just got back from one of our (me and my two labs) favorite walking trails in my neighborhood, it's mostly tree lined. I saw such much devastation. So many beautiful majestic trees either completely destroyed or seriously injured. Even trees with trunks as large as a foot in diameter were snapped. All these wonderful trees that gave us shade in the scorching summer now gone. I honestly cannot recall a more widespread weather disaster in my 39 years here. :cry:

If I never experienced an ice storm again it wouldn’t be soon enough.


So sad to hear about all of the devastation over there. I can't believe how many people are still without power this many days after the ice storm. Praying that the recovery and restoration efforts go well in the coming days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6126 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Feb 05, 2023 12:10 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I want to cry right now. Just got back from one of our (me and my two labs) favorite walking trails in my neighborhood, it's mostly tree lined. I saw such much devastation. So many beautiful majestic trees either completely destroyed or seriously injured. Even trees with trunks as large as a foot in diameter were snapped. All these wonderful trees that gave us shade in the scorching summer now gone. I honestly cannot recall a more widespread weather disaster in my 39 years here. :cry:

If I never experienced an ice storm again it wouldn’t be soon enough.


So sad to hear about all of the devastation over there. I can't believe how many people are still without power this many days after the ice storm. Praying that the recovery and restoration efforts go well in the coming days.

Around 76K still without power, it's much improved compared to over 200K yesterday.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6127 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Feb 05, 2023 1:31 pm

Going forward (next two weeks) active southern branch that hopefully provides a few opportunities for rain across areas that are in need of it. No true arctic air around during that time period.

Pattern may begin to shift again toward the middle to latter half of the month with some signs of a negative EPO setting up. Trough develops again in the west with another SE ridge fighting in between. Pretty good consensus right now among the ensembles hinting toward that possibility. MJO also signaling toward moving back into the colder phases around the 17th-18th so definitely the time period to watch as things look today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6128 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Feb 05, 2023 6:40 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I want to cry right now. Just got back from one of our (me and my two labs) favorite walking trails in my neighborhood, it's mostly tree lined. I saw such much devastation. So many beautiful majestic trees either completely destroyed or seriously injured. Even trees with trunks as large as a foot in diameter were snapped. All these wonderful trees that gave us shade in the scorching summer now gone. I honestly cannot recall a more widespread weather disaster in my 39 years here. :cry:

If I never experienced an ice storm again it wouldn’t be soon enough.


So sad to hear about all of the devastation over there. I can't believe how many people are still without power this many days after the ice storm. Praying that the recovery and restoration efforts go well in the coming days.


There are so many people out right now cleaning up and stacking brush. Had a roofer come by. He said no damage where limb hit. It fell off roof a few hours after. My chain saw broke though. So I'm in limbo until my yard guy comes Wednesday. I was more fortunate though. Only lost power for a few hours Thursday, and just need limbs cut so I can haul them to curb.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6129 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Feb 05, 2023 9:01 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6130 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Feb 05, 2023 9:30 pm


JB is a smart man, but he hypes more than anyone mainly to get ratings and subscribers. If this ssw comes to fruition, it most likely will delay spring but be too late to provide winter weather for us unless March is outrageous cold, which has happened before. I would like a decent snow event if we can get it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6131 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 05, 2023 10:47 pm

Some pretty significant changes on the 00z GFS that should pull the rainfall totals back westward into the I35 corridor.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6132 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 06, 2023 12:56 am

bubba hotep wrote:Some pretty significant changes on the 00z GFS that should pull the rainfall totals back westward into the I35 corridor.


Yeah not sure about wintry weather but it's definitely looking like a wetter pattern in general which nobody can complain about
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6133 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:12 am

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Some pretty significant changes on the 00z GFS that should pull the rainfall totals back westward into the I35 corridor.


Yeah not sure about wintry weather but it's definitely looking like a wetter pattern in general which nobody can complain about


There could be some by the end of the week, but even then, the impacts are too limited because of warm ground temperatures and marginal snowfall temperatures.

If there can't be snow, I will take rain over dryness.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6134 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:13 am

North Texas looks to be really wet over the next couple weeks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6135 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:28 am

Cpv17 wrote:North Texas looks to be really wet over the next couple weeks.


Yes it does...and really liking the look at the end of week 2 GEFS - cross Polar flow with PV reforming over Hudson Bay. Euro ENS similar.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6136 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:50 am

Cpv17 wrote:North Texas looks to be really wet over the next couple weeks.


The MJO has been constructively interfering with the ENSO base state, but that should change as a swing through 4/5/6 should favor a wet period for Texas. Then maybe we will see Nina fade, setting up a wetter Spring season for Texas. Overall, the fact that we are coming out of a 3rd yr Nina and not dealing with massive drought across Texas is pretty fortunate.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6137 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:59 am

With that SE ridge setting up, not sure I want cold again. Yay, ice storm again. Seen this record already. Lubbock NE gets the snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6138 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 06, 2023 10:04 am

orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:North Texas looks to be really wet over the next couple weeks.


Yes it does...and really liking the look at the end of week 2 GEFS - cross Polar flow with PV reforming over Hudson Bay. Euro ENS similar.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1675663200/1677045600-dv1WFllUCYE.png


This is a pretty spicy 5-day leading up to that. There will be plenty of cold air in WCAN to setup an eventful end to Feb & start to March.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6139 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Feb 06, 2023 10:24 am

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:North Texas looks to be really wet over the next couple weeks.


Yes it does...and really liking the look at the end of week 2 GEFS - cross Polar flow with PV reforming over Hudson Bay. Euro ENS similar.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1675663200/1677045600-dv1WFllUCYE.png


This is a pretty spicy 5-day leading up to that. There will be plenty of cold air in WCAN to setup an eventful end to Feb & start to March.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023020606/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

We know from 2003, 2014, 2015 that late February early March can deliver the goods in a big way. Not just with snow and sleet but some frigid cold as well. Ntwx has pointed out numerous times look out for the "20th" an thereafter and it does appear February will be no different. Hopefully the cold will be deeper and the SER can get pushed back a couple hundred miles. It that happens look out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6140 Postby harp » Mon Feb 06, 2023 11:05 am

See Larry Cosgrove’s Facebook post this morning… I don’t know how to post it.
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