Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Abdullah]

Would you folks consider the CMC more accurate than the GEFS?

No, CMC is considered to have a cold bias

[TropicalTundra]

28 degrees this morning with a decent frost. MUCH more winter-like than 80 degree afternoons

[Iceresistance]

Great, my local TV met has already mentioned the possibility of a "Crippling Ice Storm" . . .

Someone I know who follows the Farmer's almanac said that next week in Oklahoma could have "2 inches of Ice" according to the book, they were really close on the "6 inches of snow" from the last storm system.

[Iceresistance]

28 degrees this morning with a decent frost. MUCH more winter-like than 80 degree afternoons

Same here on the frosting, I got down to 24°F

[CaptinCrunch]

29 this morning at the house and nice & frosty.

As for next week, I'm thinking this is going to be a major icying event with the potential for snow as it come to an end.

.LONG TERM... /Issued 306 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023/
/This Weekend Through the Middle of Next Week/


Sunday`s cold front will bring an end to the precipitation event
and set the stage for an unseasonably chilly week. Largely zonal
flow above the invading arctic air will keep the bitter cold
confined to the Upper Midwest, but daytime temperatures across
North and Central Texas will steadily fall through the middle of
the week. As an upstream trough approaches, veering southwesterly
flow aloft will return rain chances early in the week and maintain
this unsettled weather on Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures
dip below freezing. Rain could transition to freezing rain Monday
night into Tuesday morning in areas north and west of the Dallas/
Fort Worth Metroplex. The process would repeat Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning when the freezing line will progress further to
the southeast, and the depth of the sub-freezing layer may be
sufficient for sleet. These details will come into better focus as
the event approaches, including the potential impacts to travel.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro looks like a repeat of this last system, with deep cutoff kicking out across Texas, plenty of QPF, but borderline cold.

[Tammie]

NWS Norman is already putting 3 consecutive days of ice starting next week. Usually they wait to pull the trigger on those things. I’m seeing some good support for ice storms but I still think it’s much too early to call that, especially given how much temperatures can change even 5 days out.

What models are showing Oklahoma with ice? Only ones I saw had ice in Texas but dry in Oklahoma.

It wasn’t a “model”. Read the “NWS Norman OK” area discussion write-up from this morning.

[Iceresistance]

NWS Norman is already putting 3 consecutive days of ice starting next week. Usually they wait to pull the trigger on those things. I’m seeing some good support for ice storms but I still think it’s much too early to call that, especially given how much temperatures can change even 5 days out.

What models are showing Oklahoma with ice? Only ones I saw had ice in Texas but dry in Oklahoma.

It wasn’t a “model”. Read the “NWS Norman OK” area discussion write-up from this morning.

Forecast discussion for my area from NWS-Norman

Highs will skyrocket back to or above average tomorrow. Sunny skies
and southwest winds will dominate. Saturday will be warmer yet for
much of the area, especially western north Texas and central and
southern Oklahoma as a thermal ridge develops ahead of an advancing
cold front. Fire weather should not be a problem thanks to the
snowfall event, which helped to add moisture to all fuels.
Meanwhile, the cold front will crash into place Saturday evening and
Saturday night, with gusty northerly winds possible behind it.

This cold front will be the harbinger of yet another pattern change.
Whereas recent cold fronts have only brought transient periods of
colder air at the surface, this one will have an Arctic source and a
1040 mb high across Alberta to reinforce it. Thus, we can anticipate
a prolonged period of below-average temperatures to begin on Sunday
and last through at least the middle of next week. In addition,
several chances for precipitation will exist. The first will be
Saturday night across southeastern Oklahoma, as warm advection aloft
is supplemented by moisture advection. The arrival of the cold front
will limit chances for rain spatiotemporally.

A more widespread chance for precipitation will occur during the
Monday night to Wednesday timeframe. A trough is currently forecast
to cut off and slowly approach from the southwest, with broad
southwest flow in front of it. This pattern will favor 850-700 mb
southerlies, which will encourage Gulf moisture advection. Unlike
Tuesday`s snow event, which was driven by dynamic forcing from the
upper-level low, this one will likely be driven by isentropic
ascent. In our area, that means a warm nose. Significant uncertainty
exists in global and ensemble guidance regarding surface and warm
nose temperatures. However, an early guess would suggest that rain
might dominate across southeast Oklahoma, with freezing rain
possible across central Oklahoma and western north Texas, and snow
possible across northern Oklahoma. The heaviest precipitation looks
to be across the southeastern part of our area. Confidence is medium-
high that precipitation will develop. Confidence is medium that a
warm nose will develop to complicate precipitation types, and
confidence in any one precip type at any one location is low.

[orangeblood]

06Z GEFS Ens Mean temps for next week now coming in much colder and more in line with the Canadian....Euro, as usual, won't have a clue on surface temps until we get much closer.

I imagine these Mean Temps will likely continue to lower

[Gotwood]

NWS Norman is already putting 3 consecutive days of ice starting next week. Usually they wait to pull the trigger on those things. I’m seeing some good support for ice storms but I still think it’s much too early to call that, especially given how much temperatures can change even 5 days out.

What models are showing Oklahoma with ice? Only ones I saw had ice in Texas but dry in Oklahoma.

Oh ok lol I was like what am I missing.
It wasn’t a “model”. Read the “NWS Norman OK” area discussion write-up from this morning.

[Iceresistance]

What models are showing Oklahoma with ice? Only ones I saw had ice in Texas but dry in Oklahoma.

It wasn’t a “model”. Read the “NWS Norman OK” area discussion write-up from this morning.

Oh ok lol I was like what am I missing.

I fixed your post

NWS-Norman is conservative for this because of the higher model uncertainty, but the potential is really high.

[CaptinCrunch]

It wasn’t a “model”. Read the “NWS Norman OK” area discussion write-up from this morning.

Oh ok lol I was like what am I missing.

I fixed your post

NWS-Norman is conservative for this because of the higher model uncertainty, but the potential is really high.

It's the same for NWS FTW, until we get into the weekend and 72 hr model runs is when everyone is going to know whether or not your in the target zone.

Highs/Lows for mon-wed is key, if highs hover in the mid to lower 30s then we may see a sleet/rain mix, unless the column is deep enough to support snow. The big question will be the over night lows. If we do drop to or just below freezing then morning commutes are going to be a mess, and as we have seen in the past, once you get that layer of ice on the ground anything falling through out the day has the potential to accumulate regardless of precip type. Then you have the rinse and repeat effect of the same thing multiple mornings.

It best to start preparing for the possibility than be caught off guard at the time of the event. That's the fine line our NWS offices have to balance.

[Iceresistance]

Oh ok lol I was like what am I missing.

I fixed your post

NWS-Norman is conservative for this because of the higher model uncertainty, but the potential is really high.

It's the same for NWS FTW, until we get into the weekend and 72 hr model runs is when everyone is going to know whether or not your in the target zone.

Highs/Lows for mon-wed is key, if highs hover in the mid to lower 30s then we may see a sleet/rain mix, unless the column is deep enough to support snow. The big question will be the over night lows. If we do drop to or just below freezing then morning commutes are going to be a mess, and as we have seen in the past, once you get that layer of ice on the ground anything falling through out the day has the potential to accumulate regardless of precip type. Then you have the rinse and repeat effect of the same thing multiple mornings.

It best to start preparing for the possibility than be caught off guard at the time of the event. That's the fine line our NWS offices have to balance.

I already warned the entire school about this possibility.

[Iceresistance]

Just got this from KWTV


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-26-9.20.57-AM.png

[rwfromkansas]

00z Euro looks like a repeat of this last system, with deep cutoff kicking out across Texas, plenty of QPF, but borderline cold.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012600/ecmwf_z500_vort_us_54.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012600/ecmwf_T850a_us_54.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023012600/198/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Why is it shunting the cold east? That doesn't make sense.

[Gotwood]

Just got this from KWTV

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-26-9.20.57-AM.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-26-9.20.57-AM.png

If the lows get that low I doubt the highs get close to 30 if the precipitation and cloud cover is consistent.

[rwfromkansas]

The GEFS seems to be eroding the cold very fast. Only 3 days of actual cold, then back to 50s. I thought this was an extended cold event. Looks less likely now, just another tease.

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS seems to be eroding the cold very fast. Only 3 days of actual cold, then back to 50s. I thought this was an extended cold event. Looks less likely now, just another tease.

The models have a bad tendency of eroding the cold quicker than expected, the Shallow Cold Air will be horribly underestimated by the models as it ignores the upper level patterns.

[rwfromkansas]

The GEFS seems to be eroding the cold very fast. Only 3 days of actual cold, then back to 50s. I thought this was an extended cold event. Looks less likely now, just another tease.

The models have a bad tendency of eroding the cold quicker than expected, the Shallow Cold Air will be horribly underestimated by the models as it ignores the upper level patterns.

That's true. I guess I just thought the ensembles might pick it up better, but if very shallow it may miss it as well. But, that definitely means ice storm potential, which...ugh. No good.

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS seems to be eroding the cold very fast. Only 3 days of actual cold, then back to 50s. I thought this was an extended cold event. Looks less likely now, just another tease.

The models have a bad tendency of eroding the cold quicker than expected, the Shallow Cold Air will be horribly underestimated by the models as it ignores the upper level patterns.

That's true. I guess I just thought the ensembles might pick it up better, but if very shallow it may miss it as well. But, that definitely means ice storm potential, which...ugh. No good.

12z ICON has temperatures between 17°F and 24°F and it's Sleet and Ice, yikes!