Texas Winter 2022-2023

[orangeblood]

Thundersleet!!!! I am in the club!!!

Heard several, a few more coming. DFW airport to Fort Worth nail zone right now.

Yep, training starting to set up like the RGEM has been hinting at for a few days…30-60 mile wide zone from DFW to Mexico along the 925-850mb frontal boundary

[UTSARoadrunner4]

It’s a bad day when you’ve already reached your predicted high temperature for the day (33°). This is gonna look bad for SA later.

Ice reported on 281 in Bulverde and the 281/Borgfeld intersection.

[bubba hotep]

13z HRRR shows another 4-6 hours of sleet for DFW, with some areas pushing 0.5" QPF.

[Ntxw]

If only this were snow with the dbz.

[bubba hotep]

Will we see a WPC MD for training sleet today?

[rwfromkansas]

Well that woke me up. Thundersleet.

Too bad it’s not thunder snow.

I have fond memories of snow dumping so hard it became a foot in a few hours. A forecast two inches became 12.

If only.

[CaptinCrunch]

Big thunder coming through now, already had power issues.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1620435993860915201

[GeauxTigers]

Will today be primarily a DFW event or will northern counties get in on anything today? I know someone commented yesterday that we/ northern counties would get big event tomorrow, but just wondering about anything today. Thanks!

[fendie]

Will we see a WPC MD for training sleet today?

Mesoscale Discussion 0118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent west-central and southwestern Arkansas...and southward to central Texas

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 311318Z - 311715Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, falling at rates in excess of 0.05" per hour, can be expected this morning from central Texas northeastward across southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the cold front now over the western Gulf of Mexico, having cleared even deep South Texas. As a result, temperatures across much of the state -- with the exception of the Coastal Plain -- are near or below freezing.

As the western U.S upper system (low centered over far northern Baja at this time) advances slowly eastward, a broad/leading plume of ascent -- evident in water vapor imagery across northern Mexico and the southern Plains, and arcing anticyclonically eastward across the Southeast -- is contributing to the development of convective precipitation across parts of central and northern Texas.

This evolution is fairly well-handled by current CAM runs, which suggest the convection will continue to increase in coverage, and spread northeastward across southeastern Oklahoma with time, and eventually into parts of western Arkansas through late morning/midday.

Morning RAOBs, and model point forecast soundings, reveal warm air aloft and weak instability, atop the sub-freezing boundary layer.

This suggests potential for freezing rain, with rates in excess of 0.05" per hour, including substantially greater rates over short intervals locally, as convective cells shift quickly northeastward.

Freezing rain is being observed at this time across central and northern Texas with this developing precipitation, though parts of western North Texas and into south-central Oklahoma may also experience sleet, given the increasingly deep surface-based layer of sub-freezing air with northward extent.

..Goss.. 01/31/2023

[Texas Snow]

Finally after years of trying, I just joined the thundersleet club!!!

[WacoWx]

Thundersleet at the high 5! Absolutely dumping!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

THUNDERSLEET IN THE 972!!!!!

[chickypez]

My husband drove the 20 miles into Dallas for work and just texted that they have thundersleet there. I'm jealous!

[Ntxw]

Thor came early.

Now to see what the 00z models spit out. The off-hour hi-res models have decreased QPF across DFW but let's see if that is a trend or just a data gap issue.

0z HRRR first, some convective stuff early morning, then most qpf is south and east for the heaviest. Austin is clobbered with ZR. By evening the qpf band of thor sets up shop. Slightly NW of the 18z run.

[Gotwood]

Will we see a WPC MD for training sleet today?

https://i.imgur.com/suozhxp.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent west-central and southwestern Arkansas...and southward to central Texas

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 311318Z - 311715Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, falling at rates in excess of 0.05" per hour, can be expected this morning from central Texas northeastward across southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the cold front now over the western Gulf of Mexico, having cleared even deep South Texas. As a result, temperatures across much of the state -- with the exception of the Coastal Plain -- are near or below freezing.

As the western U.S upper system (low centered over far northern Baja at this time) advances slowly eastward, a broad/leading plume of ascent -- evident in water vapor imagery across northern Mexico and the southern Plains, and arcing anticyclonically eastward across the Southeast -- is contributing to the development of convective precipitation across parts of central and northern Texas.

This evolution is fairly well-handled by current CAM runs, which suggest the convection will continue to increase in coverage, and spread northeastward across southeastern Oklahoma with time, and eventually into parts of western Arkansas through late morning/midday.

Morning RAOBs, and model point forecast soundings, reveal warm air aloft and weak instability, atop the sub-freezing boundary layer.

This suggests potential for freezing rain, with rates in excess of 0.05" per hour, including substantially greater rates over short intervals locally, as convective cells shift quickly northeastward.

Freezing rain is being observed at this time across central and northern Texas with this developing precipitation, though parts of western North Texas and into south-central Oklahoma may also experience sleet, given the increasingly deep surface-based layer of sub-freezing air with northward extent.

..Goss.. 01/31/2023

It’s pretty much all sleet had maybe 10 minutes of freezing rain.

[Portastorm]

I'm happy for you folks in North Texas getting your thundersleet this morning! It's a rare thing for us but when you experience it, and you're a weather enthusiast, it makes you want to do a Jim Cantore dance!

Enjoy and stay safe guys!

[utpmg]

Here in east Austin, just east of I-35, I've got exactly 30 degrees on my porch, streets/sidewalks wet but not icy, objects are icy though. Starting to see a coating on trees and shrubs. Current precip seems to be rain.

[cstrunk]

Help us folks stuck at 34F out... This thread needs more pictures!

[Ntxw]

Help us folks stuck at 34F out... This thread needs more pictures!

Reed Timmer still chasing and is driving through the heart of the metroplex.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPKop-UXU6E