Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Also the CPC ensembles package from the latest GEFS added some more years. 1963 and Dec 1985 which were frigid. List keeps growing.

[TheProfessor]

The cold is coming!

Hello old friends! It's been a while. I've been signaling this potential setup since October at my office. First highlighted the potential at our winter weather workshop. I've been pretty busy getting more involved over the last few months so it's been a lot of fun.

First I want to correct a misconception about this setup. Our source region is not the typical northwest Canada, but instead Siberia. This is a classic -EPO and -AO setup, which funnels the cold are our way. When you have just -EPO and the AO and NAO are positive the northern stream is more progressive and the cold air bleeds towards Europe. Without the -EPO but a -AO is in place the PNA and NAO become more important as a less amplified pattern allows cold to escape east and vice versa. Our source region in NW Canada is also more important in that setup. But when both come together it leads to a highly amplified pattern and cross polar flow that allows for continued shots of cold air.



Early on there may be some escape of cold air to the east so the first cold shot may be somewhat of a glancing blow "step down" we'll probably still feel the effects here in Kanasas.



By day 11 we see the -EPO ridge and -AO force Siberian air southward. We see a new trough entering the Plains interacting with the cold. This could be the big storm before Christmas.





On Day 14 we continue to see the -EPO and -AO force cold southward. The trough has advanced further east now and some real cold would be filtering in on the back side of it.







These are the temperatures the GEFS has over Siberia so we will be dealing with -30 to -40 air. This is an ensembles mean so extremes in either direction won't be represented.




Snow cover looks good over the areas that the air parcels will travel over. Some of these areas will be getting a fresh snowpack as well. This will help limit air from modifying on its journey.

Overall it's looking to be a significant cold outbreak. Right now I think we'll see single digit lows here in Kansas at a minimum, which is way too cold for my liking. After spending 2.5 years in South I love my cold resistance I built up in Ohio. 20-30 degrees is my sweet spot. I do think there is a chance we could see historic cold, but in order for it to happen we need to have a significant snowpack develop from North Texas up to northern Nebraska. This system on Monday should have northern Nebraska covered. If we can get a large snowpack then single digit temperatures will be possible all the way down to Texas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The cold is coming!

Hello old friends! It's been a while. I've been signaling this potential setup since October at my office. First highlighted the potential at our winter weather workshop. I've been pretty busy getting more involved over the last few months so it's been a lot of fun.

First I want to correct a misconception about this setup. Our source region is not the typical northwest Canada, but instead Siberia. This is a classic -EPO and -AO setup, which funnels the cold are our way. When you have just -EPO and the AO and NAO are positive the northern stream is more progressive and the cold air bleeds towards Europe. Without the -EPO but a -AO is in place the PNA and NAO become more important as a less amplified pattern allows cold to escape east and vice versa. Our source region in NW Canada is also more important in that setup. But when both come together it leads to a highly amplified pattern and cross polar flow that allows for continued shots of cold air.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/nz1RZrZ/gfs-ens-z500a-nhem-30.png [/url]

Early on there may be some escape of cold air to the east so the first cold shot may be somewhat of a glancing blow "step down" we'll probably still feel the effects here in Kanasas.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wz4W0wL/gfs-ens-z500a-nhem-49.png [/url]

By day 11 we're looking at the AO blocking the path of the cold and sending it south. We should see some real cold flow down the back side of the trough.


[url]https://i.ibb.co/k41WVSq/gfs-ens-z500a-nhem-57.png [/url]

By day 14 we continue to see the -EPO ridge and -AO force Siberian air southward. We see a new trough entering the Plains interacting with the cold. This could be the big storm before Christmas.


[url]https://i.ibb.co/CWZ3g1K/gfs-ens-T2m-nhem-30.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/NTFvhhQ/gfs-ens-T2m-nhem-49.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/6nVGnGf/gfs-ens-T2m-nhem-57.png [/url]

These are the temperatures the GEFS has over Siberia so we will be dealing with -30 to -40 air. This is an ensembles mean so extremes in either direction won't be represented.


[url]https://i.ibb.co/SwFGwnN/ims2022342.gif [/url]

Snow cover looks good over the areas that the air parcels will travel over. Some of these areas will be getting a fresh snowpack as well. This will help limit air from modifying on its journey.

Overall it's looking to be a significant cold outbreak. Right now I think we'll see single digit lows here in Kansas at a minimum, which is way too cold for my liking. After spending 2.5 years in South I love my cold resistance I built up in Ohio. 20-30 degrees is my sweet spot. I do think there is a chance we could see historic cold, but in order for it to happen we need to have a significant snowpack develop from North Texas up to northern Nebraska. This system on Monday should have northern Nebraska covered. If we can get a large snowpack then single digit temperatures will be possible all the way down to Texas.

Beautiful post Professor!

[Texas Snow]

Thanks for this. Great detail to back up your thoughts! Glad things are going well for you…

[gpsnowman]

The Professor has made it. Great post young man!! From posting in high school class to a polished meteorologist.

[Ntxw]

Great post TheProfessor! Beauty of it this is a sustained pattern meaning the snowpack we build isn't at risk of being decimated by in-between moderating period, glacier. The gradual slow burn spokes of cold is preferable over the one big blast.

Yesterday I made a post about the waves of cold, so in fact with a gradual build the absolute coldest period may actually extend out there that we cannot yet see due to model limitations (further out in time.)

[HockeyTx82]

The Professor has made it. Great post youmg man!! From posting in high school class to a polished meteorologist.

Our little Professor is all grown up...

[Iceresistance]

Now the OP GFS is being confused right now, snow or no snow.

[Cpv17]

Now the OP GFS is being confused right now, snow or no snow.

Op’s are terrible right now. They’re having big trouble figuring out the pattern change.

[harp]

Gfs is all over the place!! Sheesh??!!

[Iceresistance]

Gfs is all over the place!! Sheesh??!!

Models having a hard time figuring out the changing patterns.

[HockeyTx82]

Gfs is all over the place!! Sheesh??!!

Models having a hard time figuring out the changing patterns.

Winter Cancel

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Guys, OP runs are entertainment right now. Again, blend your ensembles.

[txtwister78]

]

[txtwister78]

The CMC Ens continue to trend colder during the Christmas week timeframe.

[Cpv17]

The CMC Ens continue to trend colder during the Christmas week timeframe.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670587200/1671732000-gSTcM7qjJZ0.png

Some of the biggest freezes our nation has seen started out west and worked east for coast to coast cold.

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro Op about to lay the Arctic hammer down across lower 48 day 9-10…PV crashing into Great Lakes with 1060 HP forming in NW Canada. Pattern is ripe for this scenario

[Edwards Limestone]

Is wxman just trolling us a little? He seems to be alone in here vs. our other pros.

[HockeyTx82]

Is wxman just trolling us a little? He seems to be alone in here vs. our other pros.

He will call it when he truly sees it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Is wxman just trolling us a little? He seems to be alone in here vs. our other pros.

He hedges in his statement with words like “for now”….

But yeah, I think he’s challenging some of the posters here to show their work…. Like the Professor did.

All I know is this…. When my clients start chirping and my trading buddies go all in, I’m positive something is coming. They are usually the last to be IN on the Arctic pattern change.