Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4601 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:17 pm

gboudx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Was it in February 2021 when there was Freezing drizzle that cause a huge mess?


Yeah, in Ft Worth it caused a massive pile-up of vehicles, including fatalities.

There was another big ice storm I remember, I think it was December 2013 or early Jan 2014. I remember it was around Christmas because our decorations were out and covered in ice. I took some really cool pics from the open land near our house. That was the infamous "cobblestone ice" on I-35 storm.

Christmas 2013, I fled to Missouri to get away from the Ice.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4602 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:18 pm

Quixotic wrote:Please let it be sleet.


Yes. Sleet at least looks like snow once it builds up enough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4603 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:19 pm

gboudx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Was it in February 2021 when there was Freezing drizzle that cause a huge mess?


Yeah, in Ft Worth it caused a massive pile-up of vehicles, including fatalities.

There was another big ice storm I remember, I think it was December 2013 or early Jan 2014. I remember it was around Christmas because our decorations were out and covered in ice. I took some really cool pics from the open land near our house. That was the infamous "cobblestone ice" on I-35 storm.


Early Dec 2013...seems like we get a big ice storm at least once a decade. North Texas maybe due unfortunately !!!
Last edited by orangeblood on Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4604 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:19 pm

AO is now positive, but maybe it's because the PV is over Canada?

PNA does not appear to be crazy with Positive and/or Negative on the GEFS, the GFS overdoes it.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4605 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:22 pm

gboudx wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Was it in February 2021 when there was Freezing drizzle that cause a huge mess?


Yeah, in Ft Worth it caused a massive pile-up of vehicles, including fatalities.

There was another big ice storm I remember, I think it was December 2013 or early Jan 2014. I remember it was around Christmas because our decorations were out and covered in ice. I took some really cool pics from the open land near our house. That was the infamous "cobblestone ice" on I-35 storm.

The Fort Worth pile-up was on Feb 11 I believe, the first day of any frozen precip with that cold wave. The cobblestone ice event was in early December 2013, maybe around the 5th or 6th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4606 Postby Sambucol » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:28 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4607 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:29 pm

Sambucol wrote:Pow Ponder


Link: https://youtu.be/7WUgGuUSlAk


Reminder that you can use the "[Youtube][/Youtube]" function to pop up the video.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4608 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:36 pm

I'd like to remind you all that the ICON and Canadian were the two worst models for the Christmas week event. They were way too cold. Fear not, my newest wall will hold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4609 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd like to remind you all that the ICON and Canadian were the two worst models for the Christmas week event. They were way too cold. Fear not, my newest wall will hold.


Lol, hope you didn't waste too much money at that wall....Completely different synoptic setups. Even the most conservative model of all, the NBM, is coming around!

Image
Last edited by orangeblood on Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4610 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:41 pm

Sambucol wrote:Pow Ponder
https://youtu.be/7WUgGuUSlAk

I like this guy. He makes great videos that are easy to follow and are accurate. Didn't realize until today he is from McKinney Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4611 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:43 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'd like to remind you all that the ICON and Canadian were the two worst models for the Christmas week event. They were way too cold. Fear not, my newest wall will hold.


Lol, hope you didn't waste too much money at that wall....Completely different synoptic setups. Even the most conservative model of all, the NBM, is coming around!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/scentus/flatice/1674738000/1675490400-5Dr4crv0e4c.png


I'm ready for the temperature here in Houston to top 60F so I can go outside again. Cold temps are useless.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4612 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd like to remind you all that the ICON and Canadian were the two worst models for the Christmas week event. They were way too cold. Fear not, my newest wall will hold.


I typically dont even waste my time by looking at them. The major models are already suspect enough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4613 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:48 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Sambucol wrote:Pow Ponder
https://youtu.be/7WUgGuUSlAk

I like this guy. He makes great videos that are easy to follow and are accurate. Didn't realize until today he is from McKinney Texas.


I don't think he is a professional met, but he knows his stuff. He also interacts and replies to comments on his FB page. Actually, I kind of envy the guy. Would be fun to do what he does, and he's not a hype machine like certain other nameless YouTubers...

The only criticism I have is he loves to spell perform as "preform." Drives me up the wall since I have to fix that often as a teacher.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4614 Postby WinterMax » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:50 pm

harp wrote:Looks like the cold air gets dammed up and doesn’t make it to Louisiana until later.


I think for us, anywhere in South Louisiana can begin to look towards spring maybe. I have no interest in freezing rain or even dry arctic air at this point. Sleet and snow would be good.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4615 Postby harp » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:52 pm

WinterMax wrote:
harp wrote:Looks like the cold air gets dammed up and doesn’t make it to Louisiana until later.


I think for us, anywhere in South Louisiana can begin to look towards spring maybe. I have no interest in freezing rain or even dry arctic air at this point. Sleet and snow would be good.
Yes, we are running out of time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4616 Postby Haris » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd like to remind you all that the ICON and Canadian were the two worst models for the Christmas week event. They were way too cold. Fear not, my newest wall will hold.



This ones a shallow airmass :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4617 Postby gboudx » Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:30 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Sambucol wrote:Pow Ponder
https://youtu.be/7WUgGuUSlAk

I like this guy. He makes great videos that are easy to follow and are accurate. Didn't realize until today he is from McKinney Texas.


I don't think he is a professional met, but he knows his stuff. He also interacts and replies to comments on his FB page. Actually, I kind of envy the guy. Would be fun to do what he does, and he's not a hype machine like certain other nameless YouTubers...

The only criticism I have is he loves to spell perform as "preform." Drives me up the wall since I have to fix that often as a teacher.


He also likes to say "patteren", "southeren", "easteren", etc. It's not quite nails on a chalkboard to my ears, but it's annoying. But I do like his videos, even though they tend to be too long for my attention span.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4618 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:43 pm

gboudx wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:I like this guy. He makes great videos that are easy to follow and are accurate. Didn't realize until today he is from McKinney Texas.


I don't think he is a professional met, but he knows his stuff. He also interacts and replies to comments on his FB page. Actually, I kind of envy the guy. Would be fun to do what he does, and he's not a hype machine like certain other nameless YouTubers...

The only criticism I have is he loves to spell perform as "preform." Drives me up the wall since I have to fix that often as a teacher.


He also likes to say "patteren", "southeren", "easteren", etc. It's not quite nails on a chalkboard to my ears, but it's annoying. But I do like his videos, even though they tend to be too long for my attention span.


Dang, you must really pay attention to small details. I would probably never catch that lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4619 Postby EnnisTx » Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:52 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
gboudx wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
I don't think he is a professional met, but he knows his stuff. He also interacts and replies to comments on his FB page. Actually, I kind of envy the guy. Would be fun to do what he does, and he's not a hype machine like certain other nameless YouTubers...

The only criticism I have is he loves to spell perform as "preform." Drives me up the wall since I have to fix that often as a teacher.


He also likes to say "patteren", "southeren", "easteren", etc. It's not quite nails on a chalkboard to my ears, but it's annoying. But I do like his videos, even though they tend to be too long for my attention span.


Dang, you must really pay attention to small details. I would probably never catch that lol


He has a spreech empredimante, you guys should be ashamed of your preformance... :moon: :moon:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4620 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:52 pm

Lots of problems next week for much of Texas if you put colder air into that precip signal. CMC obviously is the most bullish on the freezing rain/ice threat for now, but as usual models struggle with these shallow arctic airmasses right up until the duration itself. Short range guidance will be much more useful (surface temps) I think for this particular setup as was the case with the ULL dynamic event Tuesday.

Image
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