Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

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utpmg
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6001 Postby utpmg » Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:36 am

That one elm looks like it was in a tornado. My other elm not shown here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6002 Postby utpmg » Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:55 am

34 degrees on my front porch. Raining. Not sure if the trees are getting any lighter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6003 Postby cstrunk » Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:56 am

Sitting at 34F this morning in Longview, still raining.

Since a week ago Tuesday, I have had 7.75" of rain. 6.16" since Saturday. A week and a half of muddy dog paws is enough. I'm ready for the sun to come back this weekend!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6004 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:18 am

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6005 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:42 am

An unexpected batch of heavier Freezing rain has developed over me and it's reaching the ground, everything is covered in a glaze of Ice.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6006 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:53 am

Still 30 IMBY but glaze not too think and nothing sagging so didn’t get a ton overnight. Wife said it was slick when walking dog or trying since she demands one daily. But frozen wonderland. Sleet encased under the sheet. I had worse ice storms in West Texas. Not complaining….
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6007 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:58 am

Mostly for the east coast, but does take note for here too.

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1621091565425885184


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6008 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:54 am

Glad this one is over (especially with the precip types involved along with the unfortunate loss of power for may across the SA/AUS region into areas south of DFW). Now those folks can get their power restored hopefully in the next few days. I am definitely looking forward to a reprieve from the cold with the return of sunny skies along with some warmer weather (70's Sunday into early next week).

Great news (all things considered) that DFW was spared I think the worst of the event overall. Some of the model runs were quite scary up there in the lead up but fortunately didn't verify in terms of overall impact which would've been crippling. The early round of sleet I think helped limit some of the travel/power concerns. I thought the forecast for the HC and SC TX region was pretty much spot on by the NWS once the event got going down here.

I don't think we're done with winter just yet, but great discussion by all in the lead up to this one. The Texas late Jan/early February Ice Storm of 2023 is history and in the record books.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6009 Postby WinterMax » Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:03 am

txtwister78 wrote:Glad this one is over (especially with the precip types involved along with the unfortunate loss of power for may across the SA/AUS region into areas south of DFW). Now those folks can get their power restored hopefully in the next few days. I am definitely looking forward to a reprieve from the cold with the return of sunny skies along with some warmer weather (70's Sunday into early next week).

Great news (all things considered) that DFW was spared I think the worst of the event overall. Some of the model runs were quite scary up there in the lead up but fortunately didn't verify in terms of overall impact which would've been crippling. The early round of sleet I think helped limit some of the travel/power concerns. I thought the forecast for the HC and SC TX region was pretty much spot on by the NWS once the event got going down here.

I don't think we're done with winter just yet, but great discussion by all in the lead up to this one. The Texas late Jan/early February Ice Storm of 2023 is history and in the record books.


We are grateful over south central Louisiana as the coldest we got was 35, it is 38 now with a lot of cold rain, not pleasant, but no ice, by tomorrow the spicket should shut off and slowly warm up for everyone after a light freeze Friday night.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6010 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:03 am

Is the possibility there for flurries as this storm wraps up? People were mentioning that as the ULL moves in
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Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6011 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:11 am

GFS showing consistency of a heavy rainfall event next week for most of Texas and Oklahoma
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6012 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:18 am

Just hit 32F here at home. Last time I was at 32F was 1PM on Sunday the 29th. I've been mid to upper 20's the whole time.

So glad Pete Delkus was all over this one ahead of time so I was prepared.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6013 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:24 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Just hit 32F here at home. Last time I was at 32F was 1PM on Sunday the 29th. I've been mid to upper 20's the whole time.

So glad Pete Delkus was all over this one ahead of time so I was prepared.

From Sunday, January 29th at 1PM to 10:20 AM on Today, February 2nd, you've been below freezing for 93 hours.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6014 Postby cstrunk » Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:29 am



I'm glad we'll get a break before the next wave of heavy rain. After ~8" of rain over the last 10 days, we need it to get a bunch of this water out of here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6015 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:46 am

cstrunk wrote:


I'm glad we'll get a break before the next wave of heavy rain. After ~8" of rain over the last 10 days, we need it to get a bunch of this water out of here.

The latest GFS has 9 inches of Rain from that system (may be slightly contaminated from the last wave of this system) near Paris, TX
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6016 Postby snowballzzz » Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:48 am

I've now been below 32 degrees for 100 hours. Sitting at 31, currently.
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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6017 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Feb 02, 2023 12:00 pm

After this warm up, what is the rest of Feb looking like temp wise?
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#neversummer

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6018 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 02, 2023 12:07 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Glad this one is over (especially with the precip types involved along with the unfortunate loss of power for may across the SA/AUS region into areas south of DFW). Now those folks can get their power restored hopefully in the next few days. I am definitely looking forward to a reprieve from the cold with the return of sunny skies along with some warmer weather (70's Sunday into early next week).

Great news (all things considered) that DFW was spared I think the worst of the event overall. Some of the model runs were quite scary up there in the lead up but fortunately didn't verify in terms of overall impact which would've been crippling. The early round of sleet I think helped limit some of the travel/power concerns. I thought the forecast for the HC and SC TX region was pretty much spot on by the NWS once the event got going down here.

I don't think we're done with winter just yet, but great discussion by all in the lead up to this one. The Texas late Jan/early February Ice Storm of 2023 is history and in the record books.


Yep, DFW was spared by the 1st round of sleet. DFW Airport officially recorded 0.82" precip, 0.35" of it was sleet. Considering the trees/power lines around the Metroplex are hanging by a thread, sleet was the saving grace!!!

Agreed, great discussions all the way around and plenty of learning lessons. One of which is a continued one we've archived on here over several years...THROW OUT THE GFS AND EURO DURING SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD/DAMMING SETUPS (HP down spine of Rockies with Strong SE Ridge). It'll give you decent clues for 500mb pattern recognition but the surface depiction is absolute garbage and in turn made some of the Pro Mets in this state look pretty foolish! Hopefully, they learn and archive as well as this forum does.

Fun one to track but not to experience. Bring on the warmup then Snow in the 2nd half of February!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6019 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 02, 2023 12:11 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:After this warm up, what is the rest of Feb looking like temp wise?


Cold building in source region again mid-month. Also, of interest for an extended winter into March/April...Strat Warm is working its way down and looks to be the real deal this time. March looks like a below normal temp month at this time

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6020 Postby funster » Thu Feb 02, 2023 12:13 pm

Somehow have power after that. Maybe 1/4 inch or so in the trees in north dallas. Big tree branch lowered over and blocking driveway but should hopefully rebound when thaws.
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