Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Would take 1978 and 2009.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Would take 1978 and 2009.

https://i.imgur.com/yqTPRWr.gif

This whole board would… minus one missing Heat miser!!

[harp]

From Anthony Masiello regarding MJO:

Another quick post, this time on the MJO:

The signal has not been a real MJO for the last couple of weeks. Instead, it's higher frequency waves (KW/ER) with extratropical feedback from the blocking patterns inducing the wind anomalies in the Tropics. The eastern hemisphere firing up this month was anticipated as instability from extratropical influence ignites Walker Cell uplift. What you're seeing on the plots ahead is the ER induced TCs on both sides of the IO equator. This signal carries well into extended range with ensemble mean CHI fields averaging negative here, esp. in the southern IO. However, the state of the W PAC is less clear on them so while averaging out it seems like a weak to no signal. The MJO however will emerge across the W PAC during second half of Dec once the TC situation is resolved. The intensification of the subtropical W PAC high is already underway within 1-2 weeks (with typhoon BTW) and this extends the N. Pac jet (and starts dropping the EPO). RMMs will look anemic when they have 1 signal continuing over the S IO and the other progressing over Indo/W. Pac. Stay level-headed during this process.

. Can someone interpret this please?

[Cpv17]

From Anthony Masiello regarding MJO:

Another quick post, this time on the MJO:

The signal has not been a real MJO for the last couple of weeks. Instead, it's higher frequency waves (KW/ER) with extratropical feedback from the blocking patterns inducing the wind anomalies in the Tropics. The eastern hemisphere firing up this month was anticipated as instability from extratropical influence ignites Walker Cell uplift. What you're seeing on the plots ahead is the ER induced TCs on both sides of the IO equator. This signal carries well into extended range with ensemble mean CHI fields averaging negative here, esp. in the southern IO. However, the state of the W PAC is less clear on them so while averaging out it seems like a weak to no signal. The MJO however will emerge across the W PAC during second half of Dec once the TC situation is resolved. The intensification of the subtropical W PAC high is already underway within 1-2 weeks (with typhoon BTW) and this extends the N. Pac jet (and starts dropping the EPO). RMMs will look anemic when they have 1 signal continuing over the S IO and the other progressing over Indo/W. Pac. Stay level-headed during this process.

. Can someone interpret this please?

Yes. What this basically means is that the Pacific will start cooperating and we should start to see a more favorable EPO.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

From Anthony Masiello regarding MJO:

Another quick post, this time on the MJO:

The signal has not been a real MJO for the last couple of weeks. Instead, it's higher frequency waves (KW/ER) with extratropical feedback from the blocking patterns inducing the wind anomalies in the Tropics. The eastern hemisphere firing up this month was anticipated as instability from extratropical influence ignites Walker Cell uplift. What you're seeing on the plots ahead is the ER induced TCs on both sides of the IO equator. This signal carries well into extended range with ensemble mean CHI fields averaging negative here, esp. in the southern IO. However, the state of the W PAC is less clear on them so while averaging out it seems like a weak to no signal. The MJO however will emerge across the W PAC during second half of Dec once the TC situation is resolved. The intensification of the subtropical W PAC high is already underway within 1-2 weeks (with typhoon BTW) and this extends the N. Pac jet (and starts dropping the EPO). RMMs will look anemic when they have 1 signal continuing over the S IO and the other progressing over Indo/W. Pac. Stay level-headed during this process.

. Can someone interpret this please?

Masiello has forgotten more about obscure background variables than I’ll ever know. He’s written papers on them.

With that said, there are a few sentences in there that are easy to decipher.

1). Jet extension correlates to -EPO

2). Because there’s not much of a W PAC signal, the MJO plots are struggling and throwing Mets who are only model readers way off

[harp]

Thank you, gentlemen. Your neighbor to the east in Louisiana, watching and waiting….

[Ntxw]

1). Jet extension correlates to -EPO

2). Because there’s not much of a W PAC signal, the MJO plots are struggling and throwing Mets who are only model readers way off

I think a lot of us misunderstand/misinterpret the MJO. It isn't a driver signal from the sources I've read as much as we would like to think it is. However it is a great tool as a tea leaf reading. When looking at charts and plots, we have to view it in a sense of constructive or destructive interference. MJO moves consistently but amplifies when it is in a favorable background state region (constructive) and weakens (the circle) in an unfavorable (destructive) phase. The past couple of months it has told us to expect it to be coherent in phases 6-7-8. That's why amplification keeps happening there. So there is a cyclical ~30 day -EPO pattern.

[Iceresistance]

Why has no one noticed the 0z Euro on the cold shot? The 534 line is past DFW


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

[wxman57]

Would take 1978 and 2009.

https://i.imgur.com/yqTPRWr.gif

This whole board would… minus one missing Heat miser!!

Correct! I remember a big ice storm up at Texas A&M in 1978. Was staying in a small non-insulated (well) house just off campus. Came back to the house after visiting my father up in Ft. Worth and my toilet was frozen. No central air in the house, only gas space heaters.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

1). Jet extension correlates to -EPO

2). Because there’s not much of a W PAC signal, the MJO plots are struggling and throwing Mets who are only model readers way off

I think a lot of us misunderstand/misinterpret the MJO. It isn't a driver signal from the sources I've read as much as we would like to think it is. However it is a great tool as a tea leaf reading. When looking at charts and plots, we have to view it in a sense of constructive or destructive interference. MJO moves consistently but amplifies when it is in a favorable background state region (constructive) and weakens (the circle) in an unfavorable (destructive) phase. The past couple of months it has told us to expect it to be coherent in phases 6-7-8. That's why amplification keeps happening there. So there is a cyclical ~30 day -EPO pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/sQtmcnT.gif

Great post! That should be a pinned post.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Would take 1978 and 2009.

https://i.imgur.com/yqTPRWr.gif

This whole board would… minus one missing Heat miser!!

Correct! I remember a big ice storm up at Texas A&M in 1978. Was staying in a small non-insulated (well) house just off campus. Came back to the house after visiting my father up in Ft. Worth and my toilet was frozen. No central air in the house, only gas space heaters.

My father was a freshman at A&M that year. I’ll have to ask him about it.

We’ve come a long ways!

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting Facebook update today from Larry Cosgrove:

“A turn toward a colder, snowier forecast for the lower 48 states.”

And…

“When all is said and done, we have that high-latitude compound blocking ridge scenario (Alaska, northern Canada, Greenland) and active southern branch storm track (Baja California, Texas, along or off of East Coast) working in combination to give locations to the right of the Continental Divide a shot at significant cold, ice and/or snow. Using the analogs to this pattern suggests an abrupt January 9 - 21 Thaw below the Canadian border, then a return to winter mayhem in the U.S. in the last third of next month.”

[DallasAg]

This whole board would… minus one missing Heat miser!!

Correct! I remember a big ice storm up at Texas A&M in 1978. Was staying in a small non-insulated (well) house just off campus. Came back to the house after visiting my father up in Ft. Worth and my toilet was frozen. No central air in the house, only gas space heaters.

My father was a freshman at A&M that year. I’ll have to ask him about it.

We’ve come a long ways!

For those who love to walk down memory lane or fact check your memory of old weather events, NOAA posts archives of daily weather maps here: https://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Di ... ather-Maps

It's fun to step through memorable weather events like Feb 1978, Dec 1983, Dec 1989, etc. Or even some of the ones I remember as a kid being significant winter wx events for NTX (New Years 1979 and 1985, Feb 1982, etc.)

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a secondary push of colder air towards here in Mid December, that was not featured to come earlier in the 6z run.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has a secondary push of colder air towards here in Mid December, that was not featured to come earlier in the 6z run.

The big storm on the guidance ~Mon-Weds of next week signals the shift of the EPO.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a secondary push of colder air towards here in Mid December, that was not featured to come earlier in the 6z run.

The big storm on the guidance ~Mon-Weds of next week signals the shift of the EPO.

I get the severe storms early next week, then possibly snow the next! (Week after)

It's been a while since most people get excited for the long range GFS, the outlook is improving daily! CPC may have to follow suit.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a 1080+ HP in Greenland within 8 days! Dropping the lows to near -70°F

[Ntxw]

12z GFS while not perfect shows the dislodging of the Arctic air mass, belly up. That's what we're looking for.

[Iceresistance]

This might be the start of the big OOF!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_45.png

EDIT: Nevermind, it may be the one behind this system!

[Ntxw]

This might be the start of the big OOF!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_45.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_45.png

EDIT: Nevermind, it may be the one behind this system!

It's really only the first run that shows the potential. -EPO -> -AO and -NAO locking it down. The cold will push/win out and you will have a long duration chill if it plays out that way.