Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6041 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:34 pm

40 degrees and feels like spring here after 4 days below freezing
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6042 Postby gboudx » Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:36 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Meso analysis shows light ZR (frz rain) or ZR sleet mix with the last batch if you're below freezing.



I can confirm that it is back to 32F here and FRZ Rain/Sleet mix. Trees are reglazing and you can hear the ice cracking as the branches move around. So much for being done with this stuff :lol:


The cold is eroding faster here. It's been above 32 since about 10am. It's 35 right now, street in front of my house is wet but clear of ice, and ice is falling off the trees at a furious pace. You don't want to be standing under them. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6043 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:40 pm

Bhow wrote:All hail King CMC? GFS and Euro got embarrassed by the crazy Canadian


I have to admit that the Canadian model did well with this storm. However, it's just a single event with a specific setup. No guarantee it will do well with the next storm if the setup is even slightly different.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6044 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Bhow wrote:All hail King CMC? GFS and Euro got embarrassed by the crazy Canadian


I have to admit that the Canadian model did well with this storm. However, it's just a single event with a specific setup. No guarantee it will do well with the next storm if the setup is even slightly different.


Nailed Feb 2021 too, not just a one hit wonder…it’s the best tool there is under shallow cold setups. Doesn’t mean it’s perfect, just that there isn’t a better alternative
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6045 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:47 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Bhow wrote:All hail King CMC? GFS and Euro got embarrassed by the crazy Canadian


I have to admit that the Canadian model did well with this storm. However, it's just a single event with a specific setup. No guarantee it will do well with the next storm if the setup is even slightly different.


Nailed Feb 2021 too, not just a one hit wonder…it’s the best tool there is under these setups

Canadian seems really good with high precip Arctic outbreaks. Been that way for many years.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6046 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:52 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Bhow wrote:All hail King CMC? GFS and Euro got embarrassed by the crazy Canadian


I have to admit that the Canadian model did well with this storm. However, it's just a single event with a specific setup. No guarantee it will do well with the next storm if the setup is even slightly different.


Nailed Feb 2021 too, not just a one hit wonder…it’s the best tool there is under shallow cold setups. Doesn’t mean it’s perfect, just that there isn’t a better alternative


Its 500mb improvements over the years have made it a much more stable and consistent model even outside of outbreaks. Unlike the GFS/Euro the upgrades have shown progress. If you understand its flaws it can be the best voice of reason model, unlike in the past. It wasn't just 'colder' because the CMC is always colder. it was colder because the CMC was better at many other levels of the atmosphere.

We've seen medium range Euro do some wacky things like send troughs to the Pacific, GFS sends stuff to the east vice versa.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6047 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Feb 02, 2023 3:57 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
I have to admit that the Canadian model did well with this storm. However, it's just a single event with a specific setup. No guarantee it will do well with the next storm if the setup is even slightly different.


Nailed Feb 2021 too, not just a one hit wonder…it’s the best tool there is under shallow cold setups. Doesn’t mean it’s perfect, just that there isn’t a better alternative


Its 500mb improvements over the years have made it a much more stable and consistent model even outside of outbreaks. Unlike the GFS/Euro the upgrades have shown progress. If you understand its flaws it can be the best voice of reason model, unlike in the past. It wasn't just 'colder' because the CMC is always colder. it was colder because the CMC was better at many other levels of the atmosphere.

We've seen medium range Euro do some wacky things like send troughs to the Pacific, GFS sends stuff to the east vice versa.


Well said. It's upgrades over the past few years have definitely made the model better, especially in regards to its 500 mb projected pattern. It's a top 3 model for me now. The only issue is it still has a notable cold bias, especially in non outbreaks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6048 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:07 pm

If it doesn’t warm up in Tarrant County soon (at 31F), we may reach breaking point with trees/power lines during this next batch
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6049 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:08 pm

Not seeing much blue on RadarScope. Just rain or FZR.

I’m at 32.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6050 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:11 pm

The EWX had a little blurb about ice event for Austin area. I was here for the 2007 event. Our new dog at the time didn't do her business for about two days.lol
Meanwhile, ice is falling off the trees like ICEMAGGEDON. :eek: :P Winds are helping it along. Should ease the burden.

We`ve received a lot of questions about historical analogues to this
event. Unfortunately there is not a robust database of ice
accretion data, and ASOS measurements of ice have existed for less
than a decade. However, some other ice events that had similar
impacts in the Austin area include Jan 15-17, 2007 and Feb 24-26,
2003. The primary difference is that each of those events featured
some minor snow and sleet accumulations in addition to freezing
rain, but widespread travel and power impacts similar to those
experienced this week did occur.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
Last edited by weatherdude1108 on Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6051 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:13 pm

orangeblood wrote:If it doesn’t warm up in Tarrant County soon (at 31F), we may reach breaking point with trees/power lines during this next batch


I'm in Tarrant and it was 34,now back down to 33 and no ice has melted off of the trees as of 45 minutes ago when I took a pic. A little nervous...
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6052 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:19 pm

orangeblood wrote:If it doesn’t warm up in Tarrant County soon (at 31F), we may reach breaking point with trees/power lines during this next batch


HRRR kills that batch off as it moves east. However, if it survives through DFW, then I wouldn't be surprised to see some reports of snow mixing in later this afternoon.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6053 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:24 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:If it doesn’t warm up in Tarrant County soon (at 31F), we may reach breaking point with trees/power lines during this next batch


HRRR kills that batch off as it moves east. However, if it survives through DFW, then I wouldn't be surprised to see some reports of snow mixing in later this afternoon.


Fairly moderate rates too!

Still amazing how poor even our most Hi Res models handle surface dense cold….they’ve been chasing sub freezing temps for days now. Continually pushing it back, trying to remove them but it sticks around. Some areas in western DFW may not make it above freezing today
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6054 Postby funster » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:27 pm

What is the precip to the west? Not much melting in trees here. Trees can't handle more weight.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6055 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:36 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Bhow wrote:All hail King CMC? GFS and Euro got embarrassed by the crazy Canadian


I have to admit that the Canadian model did well with this storm. However, it's just a single event with a specific setup. No guarantee it will do well with the next storm if the setup is even slightly different.


Nailed Feb 2021 too, not just a one hit wonder…it’s the best tool there is under shallow cold setups. Doesn’t mean it’s perfect, just that there isn’t a better alternative


Fortunately, I saved forecasts from that event. The Canadian operational run didn't see the cold air at all from 3 days before the cold air arrived Sunday night. Its ensembles (dashed blue line) saw at least some cold. Note that the Canadian operational is the top blue line with temps in the 70s. By the day of the freeze, it was in line with other models. However, it showed a second very hard freeze the following weekend which never occurred. GFS and ICON did fairly well. Euro was way too warm throughout the event.

Every one of these events is different. Models that do well with one event may not do so well the next time. No setup is identical.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6056 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:50 pm

After a brief rain shower, its risen to 39 and clearing off with the sun peaking out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6057 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:57 pm

it's 33 at DFW, but 32 here at the house, but I can't tell it the rain that's falling is frz or not. Trees are heavier than they were at noon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6058 Postby Itryatgolf » Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:58 pm

The rgem model did well also. It picked up the shallow arctic air moving in when other models were playing catchup to it. The euro used to never miss a beat 7 days on in, but when they upgraded, it never was the same after.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6059 Postby funster » Thu Feb 02, 2023 5:55 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6060 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Feb 02, 2023 5:59 pm

Down to 34 degrees. We warmed up to 37 and most of the ice here has melted. Wanting flurries real bad, this week has been treacherous
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