Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#121 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 02, 2022 9:31 am

Might be mostly East Coast, but this -NAO may last for months!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1598416981371555840


0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#122 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 02, 2022 10:13 am

Iceresistance wrote:Might be mostly East Coast, but this -NAO may last for months!

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1598416981371555840?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


Let’s hope not. The EC gets plenty of exciting weather. It seems like many of these mets on Twitter and the YouTubers are really biased towards the east. Year after year after year.
3 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8557
Age: 56
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#123 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Dec 02, 2022 10:30 am

The El Nino like pattern continues through next weekend with rain chances increasing by mid week. Also note the highs are trending up to mid 60s rather than the mid 50s the models had just 72 hrs ago. Looks like another wet 3-4 days next week similar to Thanksgiving weekend.

As for the "Winters Coming" alert :lol: Well, yes it's coming but not till after we past the mid month, and closer to the Winter Solstice, so Christmas thru New Years day could be very interesting :froze: :cold:
3 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#124 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 02, 2022 10:41 am

12z GFS already started, that was quick. :eek:
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1398
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#125 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Dec 02, 2022 11:17 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Might be mostly East Coast, but this -NAO may last for months!

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1598416981371555840?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


Let’s hope not. The EC gets plenty of exciting weather. It seems like many of these mets on Twitter and the YouTubers are really biased towards the east. Year after year after year.



We want the severe negative NAO to stick. Period.

It helps us with prolonged cold. But yeah, a EPO flexing every other week would make our winter very nice.
0 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#126 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 02, 2022 11:39 am

The GFS is still showing wildly different solutions on every run.
3 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#127 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 02, 2022 11:49 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Might be mostly East Coast, but this -NAO may last for months!

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1598416981371555840?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


Let’s hope not. The EC gets plenty of exciting weather. It seems like many of these mets on Twitter and the YouTubers are really biased towards the east. Year after year after year.



We want the severe negative NAO to stick. Period.

It helps us with prolonged cold. But yeah, a EPO flexing every other week would make our winter very nice.


Oh yeah, for sure! I just hope we don’t get glancing blows with the main action east of us.
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#128 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 02, 2022 12:03 pm

Good news is, none of it has happened yet. The ridge feature that will help pump the -NAO and eventual -AO is sitting over our heads right now!
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
starsfan65
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 675
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:18 pm
Location: Garland,Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#129 Postby starsfan65 » Fri Dec 02, 2022 12:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:Good news is, none of it has happened yet. The ridge feature that will help pump the -NAO and eventual -AO is sitting over our heads right now!
What kind of ridge is it?
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#130 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 02, 2022 12:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:Good news is, none of it has happened yet. The ridge feature that will help pump the -NAO and eventual -AO is sitting over our heads right now!

The dust has yet to settle, the GFS is still having wildly different outcomes on every run.

Once the dust settles, we can have a much better look for what is eventually going to come later this month.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#131 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 02, 2022 1:43 pm

The end of the 12z GFS has temperatures near -60°F near Alaska under a 1056 mb HP.
3 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#132 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 02, 2022 2:47 pm

12z GEFS is ugly. No blocking in western/NW Canada throughout the entire run.

The EPS looks a tad bit better though.
0 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#133 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:01 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Good news is, none of it has happened yet. The ridge feature that will help pump the -NAO and eventual -AO is sitting over our heads right now!
What kind of ridge is it?


One that is giving us above average temps and a lot of humidity lol
0 likes   

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1398
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#134 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:09 pm

Cpv17 wrote:12z GEFS is ugly. No blocking in western/NW Canada throughout the entire run.

The EPS looks a tad bit better though.


Just saw a post on social media where Cosgrove and Chisholm
urging traders to ignore GFS. Both agreed Canadian and Euro have a better handle on the coming pattern.
0 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
TropicalTundra
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 567
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: Temple, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#135 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:19 pm

What's the possibility of ice in Oklahoma tomorrow night and Sunday morning? Hi-Res models has close to freezing temps and precip
0 likes   
Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation

Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#136 Postby harp » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:25 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:12z GEFS is ugly. No blocking in western/NW Canada throughout the entire run.

The EPS looks a tad bit better though.


Just saw a post on social media where Cosgrove and Chisholm
urging traders to ignore GFS. Both agreed Canadian and Euro have a better handle on the coming pattern.
I wonder where he posted that? I don’t see it on his Facebook page.
0 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#137 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:26 pm

The CPC has us with above average temps all the way into mid December lol
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#138 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:30 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:What's the possibility of ice in Oklahoma tomorrow night and Sunday morning? Hi-Res models has close to freezing temps and precip

Low, the dew point is between 33°F and 35°F.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1398
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#139 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:38 pm

harp wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:12z GEFS is ugly. No blocking in western/NW Canada throughout the entire run.

The EPS looks a tad bit better though.


Just saw a post on social media where Cosgrove and Chisholm
urging traders to ignore GFS. Both agreed Canadian and Euro have a better handle on the coming pattern.
I wonder where he posted that? I don’t see it on his Facebook page.


LinkedIn
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
txtwister78
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 985
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#140 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Dec 02, 2022 3:41 pm

0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 36 guests