Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

I do want to point out that the Farmers Almanac has "2 inches of Ice" across Oklahoma for this upcoming week, I personally hope that this does not happen at all!

[Lagreeneyes03]

12z ICON and 12z GFS both came in warmer. Also, both are shifting the rain eastward. Things certainly seem to be trending towards a glancing blow of seasonally cold air that moderates rather quickly.

Winter cancel . No quick fading Nina either, dry hot spring.

I'd just as soon have 75 degrees and rain than 35-45 degrees and rain-that's just miserable. Looks like winter cancel for DFW and points south I'm afraid.

[orangeblood]

12z Euro puts down some freezing rain on the northern and northwest portions of the precipitation shield but warms most everyone above freezing during the main push. That is a pretty common thread in the models, warming most areas up overnight on Tuesday with the main push of moisture. Also, lock these rainfall totals in!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023012712/150/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Just curious, why should we believe these temp outputs, at this range, when in reality they have proven to fail more often than not ?? They consistently erode cold/dense air too quickly with these setups

[Ntxw]

12z ICON and 12z GFS both came in warmer. Also, both are shifting the rain eastward. Things certainly seem to be trending towards a glancing blow of seasonally cold air that moderates rather quickly.

Winter cancel . No quick fading Nina either, dry hot spring.

I'd just as soon have 75 degrees and rain than 35-45 degrees and rain-that's just miserable. Looks like winter cancel for DFW and points south I'm afraid.

Oh you know better than that. 100F and torch in March like 1911 or nothing.

[Gotwood]

NAM coming into range finally and 84 hours is colder in DFW compared to most models.

[Iceresistance]

POW Ponder's latest video



Link: https://youtu.be/rMnsf8uKbws

[cheezyWXguy]

I do want to point out that the Farmers Almanac has "2 inches of Ice" across Oklahoma for this upcoming week, I personally hope that this does not happen at all!

Wouldn’t put any stock in that, even if it happens to coincide. Farmers almanac is basically weather cold-reading

[Iceresistance]

I do want to point out that the Farmers Almanac has "2 inches of Ice" across Oklahoma for this upcoming week, I personally hope that this does not happen at all!

Wouldn’t put any stock in that, even if it happens to coincide. Farmers almanac is basically weather cold-reading

Someone I know who follows it (Not as a forecast, but keeping track of its accuracy) said that it predicted 6 inches of snow earlier this week, and it got really close to being correct.

[Ghost0321]

Winter definitely canceled for DFW. Really looking forward to those streaks of 20+ days above 95 and sunny weather coming up

[Haris]

I do want to point out that the Farmers Almanac has "2 inches of Ice" across Oklahoma for this upcoming week, I personally hope that this does not happen at all!

Wouldn’t put any stock in that, even if it happens to coincide. Farmers almanac is basically weather cold-reading

Someone I know who follows it (Not as a forecast, but keeping track of its accuracy) said that it predicted 6 inches of snow earlier this week, and it got really close to being correct.

coincidence at best

[TropicalTundra]

NAM has spotty freezing rain starting early Monday morning but confined to NW Texas. By midnight Tuesday temps are at freezing and frz rain reaches as far east as I-35. Hopefully trends better and it's either too warm or sleet falls instead.

[Cpv17]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see ice and snow next week across the northern half of Texas. Global models are struggling at an all-time record level right now at seeing this colder airmass pressing south.

CMC ensembles are otherworldly.

[orangeblood]

NAM has spotty freezing rain starting early Monday morning but confined to NW Texas. By midnight Tuesday temps are at freezing and frz rain reaches as far east as I-35. Hopefully trends better and it's either too warm or sleet falls instead.

Yep, NAM depicting a nasty Tuesday morning commute with light frz rn/drizzle. Temps at midnight 28-30F across Metroplex. May cool further before sunrise.

For comparison, it's 5-6F colder than GFS, 7-8F colder than Euro and right in line with the Canadian!

Here's its Frz Rn accumulation by midnight with radar echos continuing from the southwest

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro puts down some freezing rain on the northern and northwest portions of the precipitation shield but warms most everyone above freezing during the main push. That is a pretty common thread in the models, warming most areas up overnight on Tuesday with the main push of moisture. Also, lock these rainfall totals in!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023012712/150/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Just curious, why should we believe these temp outputs, at this range, when in reality they have proven to fail more often than not ?? They consistently erode cold/dense air too quickly with these setups

I'm not asking you to believe anything, and we all know the Euro has a warm bias. I mostly wanted to post the qpf map and just commented on the temp output. Others can pontificate on how or why they think that the temps from that run might be right or wrong, but I'm not really interested in doing that.

[bubba hotep]

NAM has spotty freezing rain starting early Monday morning but confined to NW Texas. By midnight Tuesday temps are at freezing and frz rain reaches as far east as I-35. Hopefully trends better and it's either too warm or sleet falls instead.

Yep, NAM depicting a nasty Tuesday morning commute with light frz rn/drizzle. Temps at midnight 28-30F across Metroplex. May cool further before sunrise.

For comparison, it's 5-6F colder than GFS, 7-8F colder than Euro and right in line with the Canadian!

Here's its Frz Rn accumulation by midnight with radar echos continuing from the southwest
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1674842400/1675144800-6qa3ptLloBk.png

That run also reverses a warming trend that occurred across the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs.

[Iceresistance]

1052mb Arctic HP I'm watching, it's pushing south to shove the colder air to the south towards us.

[orangeblood]

12z Euro puts down some freezing rain on the northern and northwest portions of the precipitation shield but warms most everyone above freezing during the main push. That is a pretty common thread in the models, warming most areas up overnight on Tuesday with the main push of moisture. Also, lock these rainfall totals in!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023012712/150/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Just curious, why should we believe these temp outputs, at this range, when in reality they have proven to fail more often than not ?? They consistently erode cold/dense air too quickly with these setups

I'm not asking you to believe anything, and we all know the Euro has a warm bias. I mostly wanted to post the qpf map and just commented on the temp output. Others can pontificate on how or why they think that the temps from that run might be right or wrong, but I'm not really interested in doing that.

Fair enough...just trying to get a little more discussion/opinions going into this thread but understand if not interested in going there!

[orangeblood]

NAM has spotty freezing rain starting early Monday morning but confined to NW Texas. By midnight Tuesday temps are at freezing and frz rain reaches as far east as I-35. Hopefully trends better and it's either too warm or sleet falls instead.

Yep, NAM depicting a nasty Tuesday morning commute with light frz rn/drizzle. Temps at midnight 28-30F across Metroplex. May cool further before sunrise.

For comparison, it's 5-6F colder than GFS, 7-8F colder than Euro and right in line with the Canadian!

Here's its Frz Rn accumulation by midnight with radar echos continuing from the southwest
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1674842400/1675144800-6qa3ptLloBk.png

That run also reverses a warming trend that occurred across the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs.

check out the short range RGEM, even colder

[harp]

Yep, NAM depicting a nasty Tuesday morning commute with light frz rn/drizzle. Temps at midnight 28-30F across Metroplex. May cool further before sunrise.

For comparison, it's 5-6F colder than GFS, 7-8F colder than Euro and right in line with the Canadian!

Here's its Frz Rn accumulation by midnight with radar echos continuing from the southwest
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1674842400/1675144800-6qa3ptLloBk.png

That run also reverses a warming trend that occurred across the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs.

check out the short range RGEM, even colder

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/tx/t2m_f/1674842400/1675144800-oURQyPUrUgc.png

Why won’t this make it to Louisiana?

[orangeblood]

That run also reverses a warming trend that occurred across the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs.

check out the short range RGEM, even colder

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/tx/t2m_f/1674842400/1675144800-oURQyPUrUgc.png

Why won’t this make it to Louisiana?

Warm low level jet too strong to overcome…aka you’re too close to the GOM