Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

The next chance is a week from now. That 7th-10th period is still effective. Not as cold as now but there are couple of systems of interest. The first is mostly a rain producer but the second has opportunity for the northern regions.

[Iceresistance]

I still like the CMC for consistency for the upcoming rainfall event, could it become the new king for winter?

[orangeblood]

The next chance is a week from now. That 7th-10th period is still effective. Not as cold as now but there are couple of systems of interest. The first is mostly a rain producer but the second has opportunity for the northern regions.

Yes, it does...looking at 5h, upper level temps should look much better for snow with this system but unfortunately, not a lot of backing from the Ensembles atm

Side note: roads were a disaster across Metroplex this morning, frozen residual moisture was a major problem even on side roads. No doubt now, this is the Most Under Modeled Disruptive weather event we've ever had in DFW - almost 100 hrs below freezing with 4 days of School Cancellations! To archive, The combo of CMC temp output and Euro Ensemble Mean precip output was an effective tool for this one!

[Ntxw]

Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

 https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

[orangeblood]

Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Need a better system of keeping the Public on Alert...should we have dropped the Weather Warnings like we did ? I realize there wasn't actual precip but this was almost as dangerous as anytime all week!!

[orangeblood]

Non-Texas related weather news...check out the apparent temps for the Northeast tonight



477 DM touching Maine

[txtwister78]

Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Wow! I don't know, but probably not the best example to show when you have people filming this stuff that are practically overcome with excitement at the prospect of seeing spinouts/wrecks due to ice. Just saying. Seems an awful lot of downplaying here in this video to be honest. Assuming that was your point.

[Ntxw]

Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Wow! I don't know, but probably not the best example to show when you have people filming this stuff that are practically overcome with excitement at the prospect of seeing spinouts/wrecks due to ice. Just saying. Seems an awful lot of downplaying here in this video to be honest. Assuming that was your point.

Ice is ice. Deaths are deaths. There was ice on the roads and bridges all week long, that's it nothing more to say.

[Ntxw]

Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Need a better system of keeping the Public on Alert...should we have dropped the Weather Warnings like we did ? I realize there wasn't actual precip but this was almost as dangerous as anytime all week!!

I'm not sure on this as I'm not well versed with the warnings assessed by the NWS. Though throughout this event I'm rather more concerned that many of the bridges and overpasses were not treated heavily or sanded compared to some of the non-events. Many of the bridges this morning were not any more safer than during the peak of the event.

[txtwister78]

Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Wow! I don't know, but probably not the best example to show when you have people filming this stuff that are practically overcome with excitement at the prospect of seeing spinouts/wrecks due to ice. Just saying. Seems an awful lot of downplaying here in this video to be honest. Assuming that was your point.

Ice is ice. Deaths are deaths. There was ice on the roads and bridges all week long, that's it nothing more to say.

Yup definitely got that there was ice on the roads, bridges and unfortunately fatalities associated with this winter storm.

I was specifically responding to your point of "downplaying". Just seemed like an awful lot of downplaying taking place during that back-and-forth dialogue there. I guess if we want people to take this stuff more serious, maybe we shouldn't use people like that as an example in covering it?

I take your point about the severity of ice overall. The fact that it needs to be stated/repeated is sort of interesting despite the winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings/messaging that was used throughout the duration. I just don't think people like that help in what you described as eye rolling/downplaying of the event. I agree if that's what you were suggesting.

[Ntxw]

Wow! I don't know, but probably not the best example to show when you have people filming this stuff that are practically overcome with excitement at the prospect of seeing spinouts/wrecks due to ice. Just saying. Seems an awful lot of downplaying here in this video to be honest. Assuming that was your point.

Ice is ice. Deaths are deaths. There was ice on the roads and bridges all week long, that's it nothing more to say.

Yup definitely got that there was ice on the roads, bridges and unfortunately fatalities associated with this winter storm.

I was specifically responding to your point of "downplaying". Just seemed like an awful lot of downplaying taking place during that back-and-forth dialogue there. I guess if we want people to take this stuff more serious, maybe we shouldn't use people like that as an example in covering it?

I take your point about the severity of ice overall. The fact that it needs to be stated/repeated is sort of interesting despite the winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings/messaging that was used throughout the duration. I just don't think people like that help in what you described as eye rolling/downplaying of the event. I agree if that's what you were suggesting.

Don't take it that deep, no need. The point was to show how treacherous some of the bridges and side roads were, the confidence level in some of the driving. The last half of this week the conversations, and I'm talking about at a business level and general ear to ear, was that Thurs and Friday was going to be thawing and better conditions. And it was to extent. But the thawing-refreeze ordeal was more than enough decided not to take the risk, but some did or did not have that option. Surprising little was done by officials to help these road conditions. Is this a forecasting issue? Preparation issue? I don't know.

[Portastorm]

Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Nothing apocalyptic perhaps for you North Texas folks. Down here in Austin, I would say it has been apocalyptic when one considers the widespread devastation of trees and hundreds of thousands still without power.

[orangeblood]

Wow! I don't know, but probably not the best example to show when you have people filming this stuff that are practically overcome with excitement at the prospect of seeing spinouts/wrecks due to ice. Just saying. Seems an awful lot of downplaying here in this video to be honest. Assuming that was your point.

Ice is ice. Deaths are deaths. There was ice on the roads and bridges all week long, that's it nothing more to say.

Yup definitely got that there was ice on the roads and bridges and unfortunately fatalities associated with this winter storm.

I was specifically responding to your point of "downplaying". Just seemed like an awful lot of downplaying taking place during that back-and-forth dialogue there. I guess if we want people to take this stuff more serious, maybe we shouldn't use people like that as an example in covering it?

I take your point about the severity of ice overall. The fact that it needs to be stated/repeated is sort of interesting despite the winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings/messaging that was used throughout the duration. I just don't think people like that help in what you described as eye rolling/downplaying of the event. I agree if that's what you were suggesting.

The problem here, IMO, is that we have a system that allowed these warnings to expire yesterday despite a major threat still ongoing...ice on roadways. During the warnings, they appeared to be very effective since most stayed off roads but that seemed to change today once the warnings expired. People become a lot more relaxed on area roads, this video as an example and it wasn't just an isolated incident! Had several friends/family members cite warnings expiring as a reason kids should've been back at school today when clearly roads were an ongoing problem (luckily the Districts still cancelled). It appears once weather warnings are lifted, the Public becomes more relaxed. Not sure what the exact solution is but it needs to be addressed/fixed/improved upon

[Ntxw]

Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Nothing apocalyptic perhaps for you North Texas folks. Down here in Austin, I would say it has been apocalyptic when one considers the widespread devastation of trees and hundreds of thousands still without power.

I feel for you Porta! I said before freezing rain is nothing to be excited for, it's boring, destructive, and not good for anything other than misery. Might as well get that cold rain. 70F by Sunday hopefully more of you folks down there come back up online.

[orangeblood]

Ice is ice. Deaths are deaths. There was ice on the roads and bridges all week long, that's it nothing more to say.

Yup definitely got that there was ice on the roads, bridges and unfortunately fatalities associated with this winter storm.

I was specifically responding to your point of "downplaying". Just seemed like an awful lot of downplaying taking place during that back-and-forth dialogue there. I guess if we want people to take this stuff more serious, maybe we shouldn't use people like that as an example in covering it?

I take your point about the severity of ice overall. The fact that it needs to be stated/repeated is sort of interesting despite the winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings/messaging that was used throughout the duration. I just don't think people like that help in what you described as eye rolling/downplaying of the event. I agree if that's what you were suggesting.

Don't take it that deep, no need. The point was to show how treacherous some of the bridges and side roads were, the confidence level in some of the driving. The last half of this week the conversations, and I'm talking about at a business level and general ear to ear, was that Thurs and Friday was going to be thawing and better conditions. And it was to extent. But the thawing-refreeze ordeal was more than enough decided not to take the risk, but some did or did not have that option. Surprising little was done by officials to help these road conditions. Is this a forecasting issue? Preparation issue? I don't know.

It looks like more of a forecasting system issue! Earlier this morning, even secondary roads were treacherous not just bridges/overpasses so I don't believe more treating would've solved much. Would've helped on highways but there were wrecks all over. This seems to be a Warning System issue

[gpsnowman]

Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Nothing apocalyptic perhaps for you North Texas folks. Down here in Austin, I would say it has been apocalyptic when one considers the widespread devastation of trees and hundreds of thousands still without power.

I feel for you Porta! I said before freezing rain is nothing to be excited for, it's boring, destructive, and not good for anything other than misery. Might as well get that cold rain. 70F by Sunday hopefully more of you folks down there come back up online.

Got an off day Monday. I'm thinking patio, margarita, 72 degrees, sunshine, in that order.

[txtwister78]

Ice is ice. Deaths are deaths. There was ice on the roads and bridges all week long, that's it nothing more to say.

Yup definitely got that there was ice on the roads, bridges and unfortunately fatalities associated with this winter storm.

I was specifically responding to your point of "downplaying". Just seemed like an awful lot of downplaying taking place during that back-and-forth dialogue there. I guess if we want people to take this stuff more serious, maybe we shouldn't use people like that as an example in covering it?

I take your point about the severity of ice overall. The fact that it needs to be stated/repeated is sort of interesting despite the winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings/messaging that was used throughout the duration. I just don't think people like that help in what you described as eye rolling/downplaying of the event. I agree if that's what you were suggesting.

Don't take it that deep, no need. The point was to show how treacherous some of the bridges and side roads were, the confidence level in some of the driving. The last half of this week the conversations, and I'm talking about at a business level and general ear to ear, was that Thurs and Friday was going to be thawing and better conditions. And it was to extent. But the thawing-refreeze ordeal was more than enough decided not to take the risk, but some did or did not have that option. Surprising little was done by officials to help these road conditions. Is this a forecasting issue? Preparation issue? I don't know.

My final point before moving on, but I don't know if I would call that "deep" personally. There were plenty of news outlets that I thought communicated the overall high impact nature of the event itself throughout the state including within the DFW area. I honestly thought you were using these guys as an example of what not to do in covering an event such as this one? Unfortunately, I just think that the specific point you're making isn't going to be heard/conveyed with a group (who has 384k followers on Twitter alone which claims to be a trusted emergency news source) seemingly doing some bit at the prospect of seeing cars do what that one did in that video. That whole dialogue just seems a little contradictory to me.

As to the messaging itself, I've seen it time and time again. No matter how you convey the seriousness of a weather event, unfortunately you can't fix stupid. Perhaps a discussion can be had about the lead up and as I mentioned before Monday where you sort of do an after-action review of what was done in terms of messaging/forecasting, but while the event itself is ongoing, I thought all offices did about as good a job as can be expected but unfortunately, I don't think any outlet or agency will ever be able to solve the problem of individual behavior. To your point about this morning, I saw one of your local weather guys that some often refer to on here (Delkus I think was his name) talk about the dangers of black ice and how it might even be even more dangerous than anything the area had experienced so far and so I just think people tend to let their guard down or simply don't heed the warnings.

[Portastorm]

A few observations from my recollection about model performance for this event in my neck of the woods:

* I cannot recall a winter event where the globals (GFS and Euro) were so far off on temperatures so close to the event. Sure we all know they struggle with these kinds of setups (shallow Arctic airmasses), but they're usually off by maybe 5-6 degrees. As late as Monday I think I saw some of their runs showing temps in the 40s for us. They were terrible.

* Even the trusty NAM busted on this event as its temps for us were several degrees too warm. And those several degrees ended up being crucial when it came time for either rain or freezing rain.

* King CMC?! LOL ... maybe. No doubt the CMC did quite well this time. Think I saw a post somewhere from South Texas Storms who said the CMC has improved a lot in the last few years.

* I wasn't tracking it closely but a professional meteorologist here told me the other day that the WRF-ARW is a very good short-range model and handled this event well. It was one of the few models showing temps that verified for us within 24 hours of the event.

[Ntxw]

Yup definitely got that there was ice on the roads, bridges and unfortunately fatalities associated with this winter storm.

I was specifically responding to your point of "downplaying". Just seemed like an awful lot of downplaying taking place during that back-and-forth dialogue there. I guess if we want people to take this stuff more serious, maybe we shouldn't use people like that as an example in covering it?


I take your point about the severity of ice overall. The fact that it needs to be stated/repeated is sort of interesting despite the winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings/messaging that was used throughout the duration. I just don't think people like that help in what you described as eye rolling/downplaying of the event. I agree if that's what you were suggesting.

Don't take it that deep, no need. The point was to show how treacherous some of the bridges and side roads were, the confidence level in some of the driving. The last half of this week the conversations, and I'm talking about at a business level and general ear to ear, was that Thurs and Friday was going to be thawing and better conditions. And it was to extent. But the thawing-refreeze ordeal was more than enough decided not to take the risk, but some did or did not have that option. Surprising little was done by officials to help these road conditions. Is this a forecasting issue? Preparation issue? I don't know.

My final point before moving on, but I don't know if I would call that "deep" personally. There were plenty of news outlets that I thought communicated the overall high impact nature of the event itself throughout the state including within the DFW area. I honestly thought you were using these guys as an example of what not to do in covering an event such as this one? Unfortunately, I just think that the specific point you're making isn't going to be heard/conveyed with a group (who has 384k followers on Twitter alone which claims to be a trusted emergency news source) seemingly doing some bit at the prospect of seeing cars do what that one did in that video. That whole dialogue just seems a little contradictory to me.

As to the messaging itself, I've seen it time and time again. No matter how you convey the seriousness of a weather event, unfortunately you can't fix stupid. Perhaps a discussion can be had about the lead up and as I mentioned before Monday where you sort of do an after-action review of what was done in terms of messaging/forecasting, but while the event itself is ongoing, I thought all offices did about as good a job as can be expected but unfortunately, I don't think any outlet or agency will ever be able to solve the problem of individual behavior. To your point about this morning, I saw one of your local weather guys that some often refer to on here (Delkus I think was his name) talk about the dangers of black ice and how it might even be even more dangerous than anything the area had experienced so far and so I just think people tend to let their guard down or simply don't heed the warnings.

I'm not sure what this essay is for or portaying. We can take this to pm and move on.

[txtwister78]

Don't take it that deep, no need. The point was to show how treacherous some of the bridges and side roads were, the confidence level in some of the driving. The last half of this week the conversations, and I'm talking about at a business level and general ear to ear, was that Thurs and Friday was going to be thawing and better conditions. And it was to extent. But the thawing-refreeze ordeal was more than enough decided not to take the risk, but some did or did not have that option. Surprising little was done by officials to help these road conditions. Is this a forecasting issue? Preparation issue? I don't know.

My final point before moving on, but I don't know if I would call that "deep" personally. There were plenty of news outlets that I thought communicated the overall high impact nature of the event itself throughout the state including within the DFW area. I honestly thought you were using these guys as an example of what not to do in covering an event such as this one? Unfortunately, I just think that the specific point you're making isn't going to be heard/conveyed with a group (who has 384k followers on Twitter alone which claims to be a trusted emergency news source) seemingly doing some bit at the prospect of seeing cars do what that one did in that video. That whole dialogue just seems a little contradictory to me.

As to the messaging itself, I've seen it time and time again. No matter how you convey the seriousness of a weather event, unfortunately you can't fix stupid. Perhaps a discussion can be had about the lead up and as I mentioned before Monday where you sort of do an after-action review of what was done in terms of messaging/forecasting, but while the event itself is ongoing, I thought all offices did about as good a job as can be expected but unfortunately, I don't think any outlet or agency will ever be able to solve the problem of individual behavior. To your point about this morning, I saw one of your local weather guys that some often refer to on here (Delkus I think was his name) talk about the dangers of black ice and how it might even be even more dangerous than anything the area had experienced so far and so I just think people tend to let their guard down or simply don't heed the warnings.

I'm not sure what this essay is for or portaying. We can take this to pm and move on.

Lol..funny I thought it was a response to your characterization of my comment/points you made above but no need. Not trying to get under your skin there Ntxw. Just having a discussion. Happy to move on.