Texas Winter 2022-2023

[ThunderSleetDreams]

From the 12th to the 19th it’s average to below average, on the GFS.

But I digress, I follow people who can’t afford to be wrong (traders) who are largely discounting the GFS right now and are blending the Canadian and Euro.

Thank you for being a voice of reason. Some people I will just never understand.

I mean your average person will live or die by the models. It’s fairly common. There’s even some mets (lazier ones) that have been known to do that. One model run could show Houston getting down to 15°F 300 hours out and an hour later you’ll see it being posted/talked about all over the internet. Yeah I get annoyed by that but at the same time I can understand where they’re coming from so I’m not going to talk down to them about it. Instead, educate them. Let them know models can’t be trusted that far out. You’d be surprised by how many people would actually believe one model run 300 hours out.

I wasn’t talking down and I agree with your statement.

[Itryatgolf]

The sentiment is we got a ways to go and it will probably be after mid month at the earliest imo. Hopefully we will have a few opportunities this winter at some point

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Models are in a big disagreement even up to next weekend. Thats not normal, i think it shows how they are still trying to grasp whats going to happen. The greenland block is a very big deal and we must remember, typically the chaos occurs after we see that monster red blob on the maps lol.

[bubba hotep]

Winter 2022-2023 could be like the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Delayed, but not Denied.

-NAO isn't always a slam dunk for the Southern Plains, but it's better than a +NAO. We will still need some help from the Pacific. However, give me this all-day every day, and I'll be happy lol

[harp]

I have been closely following weather since I was a teen and had a close encounter with a tornado in Tulsa.(see the Brookside Tornado of 1974). I know better than to live and die by each model run. I certainly know this, believe me. My point is that with all of the predictions of a pattern flip coming, you would think the GFS would start to sniff it out by now. Is that an unrealistic thought? I’m sincerely asking this question. I’m now in south Louisiana and I get a lot of information here. I belong to this forum and another one in my area.

[Cpv17]

I have been closely following weather since I was a teen and had a close encounter with a tornado in Tulsa.(see the Brookside Tornado of 1974). I know better than to live and die by each model run. I certainly know this, believe me. My point is that with all of the predictions of a pattern flip coming, you would think the GFS would start to sniff it out by now. Is that an unrealistic thought? I’m sincerely asking this question. I’m now in south Louisiana and I get a lot of information here. I belong to this forum and another one in my area.

I kinda fall under this same category. I do think as well that if a pattern change is truly coming that has been talked about for a while already, you’d think we would start seeing hints of it in the models but I’ve yet to really see that. I think sometimes (from what I’ve learned on here) is that the MJO is throwing off the models and they can’t figure out what it wants to do. I’m not sure about this but I believe if something major is coming the models will have a hard time seeing it…

[txwxwatcher]

I have been closely following weather since I was a teen and had a close encounter with a tornado in Tulsa.(see the Brookside Tornado of 1974). I know better than to live and die by each model run. I certainly know this, believe me. My point is that with all of the predictions of a pattern flip coming, you would think the GFS would start to sniff it out by now. Is that an unrealistic thought? I’m sincerely asking this question. I’m now in south Louisiana and I get a lot of information here. I belong to this forum and another one in my area.

Thought you were out until the New Year?!

[Iceresistance]

Winter 2022-2023 could be like the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Delayed, but not Denied.

-NAO isn't always a slam dunk for the Southern Plains, but it's better than a +NAO. We will still need some help from the Pacific. However, give me this all-day every day, and I'll be happy lol

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022120306/384/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Nice, I hope that can give us a more favorable setup for snow later on this winter.

[harp]

I have been closely following weather since I was a teen and had a close encounter with a tornado in Tulsa.(see the Brookside Tornado of 1974). I know better than to live and die by each model run. I certainly know this, believe me. My point is that with all of the predictions of a pattern flip coming, you would think the GFS would start to sniff it out by now. Is that an unrealistic thought? I’m sincerely asking this question. I’m now in south Louisiana and I get a lot of information here. I belong to this forum and another one in my area.

Thought you were out until the New Year?!

It’s an illness I suppose… I’m seeking treatment.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I have been closely following weather since I was a teen and had a close encounter with a tornado in Tulsa.(see the Brookside Tornado of 1974). I know better than to live and die by each model run. I certainly know this, believe me. My point is that with all of the predictions of a pattern flip coming, you would think the GFS would start to sniff it out by now. Is that an unrealistic thought? I’m sincerely asking this question. I’m now in south Louisiana and I get a lot of information here. I belong to this forum and another one in my area.

Thought you were out until the New Year?!

It’s an illness I suppose… I’m seeking treatment.

We all suffer from it.

[bubba hotep]

It's way out in fantasy land, but the end of the 12z GFS does offer one option for how this pattern could unfold. We finally see ridging into WCAn and some s/w coming out of the Pacific. Ultimately, I think that is what we will see in the second half of December into January, and that should offer up some winter wx chances for the Southern Plains.

[txwxwatcher]

I have been closely following weather since I was a teen and had a close encounter with a tornado in Tulsa.(see the Brookside Tornado of 1974). I know better than to live and die by each model run. I certainly know this, believe me. My point is that with all of the predictions of a pattern flip coming, you would think the GFS would start to sniff it out by now. Is that an unrealistic thought? I’m sincerely asking this question. I’m now in south Louisiana and I get a lot of information here. I belong to this forum and another one in my area.

Thought you were out until the New Year?!

It’s an illness I suppose… I’m seeking treatment.

All in good fun!

[txwxwatcher]

It's way out in fantasy land, but the end of the 12z GFS does offer one option for how this pattern could unfold. We finally see ridging into WCAn and some s/w coming out of the Pacific. Ultimately, I think that is what we will see in the second half of December into January, and that should offer up some winter wx chances for the Southern Plains.

That would be gravy. I’m just looking forward to what would typically be seasonal temps around here in Houston.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It's way out in fantasy land, but the end of the 12z GFS does offer one option for how this pattern could unfold. We finally see ridging into WCAn and some s/w coming out of the Pacific. Ultimately, I think that is what we will see in the second half of December into January, and that should offer up some winter wx chances for the Southern Plains.

That would be gravy. I’m just looking forward to what would typically be seasonal temps around here in Houston.

We should start getting seasonal on the 12th and head below shortly thereafter.

[txtwister78]

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022120312/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_50.png

Not bad for 300 hours out.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022120312/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_50.png

What kind of temps is that showing?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022120312/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_50.png

What kind of temps is that showing?

That would equal lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s depending on your location and highs in the 40s to low 50s.

[Iceresistance]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022120312/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_50.png

On College of DuPage, the snowfall signal for Oklahoma and Northern Texas has increased for the entire run. So maybe there is hope for N TX snow in December after all.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm not concerned with the models, especially anything more than 5 days out. It's the background state and teleconnections that's important. It's those 2 that dictates our weather patterns, and models only try and decipher the coming changes.

Over the last 10yrs there have been so many signs of climate change, and certain weather patterns like La Nina, and El Nino have become more diluted.

We just don't get the cold winters we had 30-50 yrs ago. Instead we get micro winter events, like the foot of snow across DFW in 2010, the arctic freeze in 2021, as examples. Our winters in this region have become less intense and sustainable (gets cold for 3 to 7 days and warms right back up)

So unless you're ready to move to a more winter friendly location, you are just going to have to enjoy the occasional winter we get here in North Texas, and hope those models pan out for us.