Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Itryatgolf]

I'm not concerned with the models, especially anything more than 5 days out. It's the background state and teleconnections that's important. It's those 2 that dictates our weather patterns, and models only try and decipher the coming changes.

Over the last 10yrs there have been so many signs of climate change, and certain weather patterns like La Nina, and El Nino have become more diluted.

We just don't get the cold winters we had 30-50 yrs ago. Instead we get micro winter events, like the foot of snow across DFW in 2010, the arctic freeze in 2021, as examples. Our winters in this region have become less intense and sustainable (gets cold for 3 to 7 days and warms right back up)

So unless you're ready to move to a more winter friendly location, you are just going to have to enjoy the occasional winter we get here in North Texas, and hope those models pan out for us.

I agree that winters aren't like they used to be. I would hate to live in an area where you literally have no chance at winter weather ever. I know we will never see alot of snow and that's how it is because of many different things, but I like our opportunity when we get them.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well 30-50 years ago we experienced the two of the coldest decades of the 20th century.

With that said, I’m not sure y’all are remembering even those decades correctly. It has never been uncommon to see 70s and occasional 80 in Texas during Winter. I remember them vividly even during and before some of our coldest winters and cold snaps.

The 1930s and 1950s-1960s largely sucked for winter weather outside of 1950 and I believe 1963.

I can tell you Latitude 30-32 N has experienced more winter events in the last decade than they did the previous 20 years.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

And I’m by no means trying to be confrontational… I just expect most on here to be born in the 60s-80s based on what I’ve read over the years so their view of their childhood winters are going to be slanted to those two decades.

I know I loved the 80s. The 90s winters were largely boring minus 90, 93 and 97 (in Texas). 2000s were much like the 90s but from 2007 onward events started picking up a lot.

[Itryatgolf]

Well 30-50 years ago we experienced the two of the coldest decades of the 20th century.

With that said, I’m not sure y’all are remembering even those decades correctly. It has never been uncommon to see 70s and occasional 80 in Texas during Winter. I remember them vividly even during and before some of our coldest winters and cold snaps.

The 1930s and 1950s-1960s largely sucked for winter weather outside of 1950 and I believe 1963.

I can tell you Latitude 30-32 N has experienced more winter events in the last decade than they did the previous 20 years.

That feb 2021 cold and snow was very fun for my area. Models showing 22inches, which actually wasn't far off. That was a 1 in 40 yr event.

[Itryatgolf]

And I’m by no means trying to be confrontational… I just expect most on here to be born in the 60s-80s based on what I’ve read over the years so their view of their childhood winters are going to be slanted to those two decades.

I know I loved the 80s. The 90s winters were largely boring minus 90, 93 and 97 (in Texas). 2000s were much like the 90s but from 2007 onward events started picking up a lot.

We all do better when a -epo set up. They are exciting when they do. Early signals should allow that outcome by shortly after mid December. Pacific is the king of cold imo

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Well 30-50 years ago we experienced the two of the coldest decades of the 20th century.

With that said, I’m not sure y’all are remembering even those decades correctly. It has never been uncommon to see 70s and occasional 80 in Texas during Winter. I remember them vividly even during and before some of our coldest winters and cold snaps.

The 1930s and 1950s-1960s largely sucked for winter weather outside of 1950 and I believe 1963.

I can tell you Latitude 30-32 N has experienced more winter events in the last decade than they did the previous 20 years.

That feb 2021 cold and snow was very fun for my area. Models showing 22inches, which actually wasn't far off. That was a 1 in 40 yr event.

I think everyone on here cashed in during 2021 event, even the coastal snow bunnies here.

[Brent]

This argument about winters is kind of ironic to me... We've actually been pretty lucky here the last couple years. I know people back east at our latitude or even north that have been stuck under the SE ridge most of the winter and all they saw was token flakes so I mean... Even in February 2021 they were not cold or winter wonderlands remotely like us

But I've also seen the Dallas snow records before and yeah the 90s were horrible or who can forget the snowless streak between 2016 and 2020. South of Dallas had the biggest snows in decades during that

Also it is December 3rd I don't think we can assume anything about this winter yet even if the pattern doesnt change before Christmas (which I still think it will) we all know most of our fun has been in February. Heck I still haven't seen a snowstorm in December since I moved west in 2014 and don't forget last Christmas it was 75 degrees

[CaptinCrunch]

Well 30-50 years ago we experienced the two of the coldest decades of the 20th century.

With that said, I’m not sure y’all are remembering even those decades correctly. It has never been uncommon to see 70s and occasional 80 in Texas during Winter. I remember them vividly even during and before some of our coldest winters and cold snaps.

The 1930s and 1950s-1960s largely sucked for winter weather outside of 1950 and I believe 1963.

I can tell you Latitude 30-32 N has experienced more winter events in the last decade than they did the previous 20 years.

I'm 54 so yes I remember the 76-79 winters very well, as well as 83' which still holds the record for most consecutive hours 192 at freezing or below, those were the good old days of winters past, however 21' will be lasting memory as well.

[Ntxw]

This argument about winters is kind of ironic to me... We've actually been pretty lucky here the last couple years. I know people back east at our latitude or even north that have been stuck under the SE ridge most of the winter and all they saw was token flakes so I mean... Even in February 2021 they were not cold or winter wonderlands remotely like us

But I've also seen the Dallas snow records before and yeah the 90s were horrible or who can forget the snowless streak between 2016 and 2020. South of Dallas had the biggest snows in decades during that

Also it is December 3rd I don't think we can assume anything about this winter yet even if the pattern doesnt change before Christmas (which I still think it will) we all know most of our fun has been in February. Heck I still haven't seen a snowstorm in December since I moved west in 2014 and don't forget last Christmas it was 75 degrees

December has been a warm month overall the past decade. Only 2012 had anything meaningful around Christmas. If we can avoid another torch December that's a win my book.

[Iceresistance]

This argument about winters is kind of ironic to me... We've actually been pretty lucky here the last couple years. I know people back east at our latitude or even north that have been stuck under the SE ridge most of the winter and all they saw was token flakes so I mean... Even in February 2021 they were not cold or winter wonderlands remotely like us

But I've also seen the Dallas snow records before and yeah the 90s were horrible or who can forget the snowless streak between 2016 and 2020. South of Dallas had the biggest snows in decades during that

Also it is December 3rd I don't think we can assume anything about this winter yet even if the pattern doesnt change before Christmas (which I still think it will) we all know most of our fun has been in February. Heck I still haven't seen a snowstorm in December since I moved west in 2014 and don't forget last Christmas it was 75 degrees

2012-2020 was terribly mild winters. Except 2013-2014. Even during the Super El Nino in 2015 had very little snow.

[Ntxw]

This argument about winters is kind of ironic to me... We've actually been pretty lucky here the last couple years. I know people back east at our latitude or even north that have been stuck under the SE ridge most of the winter and all they saw was token flakes so I mean... Even in February 2021 they were not cold or winter wonderlands remotely like us

But I've also seen the Dallas snow records before and yeah the 90s were horrible or who can forget the snowless streak between 2016 and 2020. South of Dallas had the biggest snows in decades during that

Also it is December 3rd I don't think we can assume anything about this winter yet even if the pattern doesnt change before Christmas (which I still think it will) we all know most of our fun has been in February. Heck I still haven't seen a snowstorm in December since I moved west in 2014 and don't forget last Christmas it was 75 degrees

2012-2020 was terribly mild winters. Except 2013-2014. Even during the Super El Nino in 2015 had very little snow.

1990s and 2010s were predominantly +AO winters. EPO is dominant for cold blasts, but the AO determines winter overall as a whole for DJF.

[Itryatgolf]

This argument about winters is kind of ironic to me... We've actually been pretty lucky here the last couple years. I know people back east at our latitude or even north that have been stuck under the SE ridge most of the winter and all they saw was token flakes so I mean... Even in February 2021 they were not cold or winter wonderlands remotely like us

But I've also seen the Dallas snow records before and yeah the 90s were horrible or who can forget the snowless streak between 2016 and 2020. South of Dallas had the biggest snows in decades during that

Also it is December 3rd I don't think we can assume anything about this winter yet even if the pattern doesnt change before Christmas (which I still think it will) we all know most of our fun has been in February. Heck I still haven't seen a snowstorm in December since I moved west in 2014 and don't forget last Christmas it was 75 degrees

2012-2020 was terribly mild winters. Except 2013-2014. Even during the Super El Nino in 2015 had very little snow.

1990s and 2010s were predominantly +AO winters. EPO is dominant for cold blasts, but the AO determines winter overall as a whole for DJF.

https://i.imgur.com/MuZZQNY.gif

Ntxw, I have a legitimate question. If we have a -ao/nao now or soon to have, why isnt the models reflecting that? Is it convection in the IO or is it the pacific is just that bad?

[Ntxw]

2012-2020 was terribly mild winters. Except 2013-2014. Even during the Super El Nino in 2015 had very little snow.

1990s and 2010s were predominantly +AO winters. EPO is dominant for cold blasts, but the AO determines winter overall as a whole for DJF.

https://i.imgur.com/MuZZQNY.gif

Ntxw, I have a legitimate question. If we have a -ao/nao now or soon to have, why isnt the models reflecting that? Is it convection in the IO or is it the pacific is just that bad?

-AO/NAO isn't a big indicator of cold in early December, it is more of a storm track precursor and depth of cold above. Like Bubba noted you want a - phase rather than + regardless, tendencies are get it early and it will continue later. It also attacks the strat PV. We just had an EPO unload in mid-late November it'll take some time for the Pacific to cooperate.

[Quixotic]

It’s coming. Weak PV is going to mean high latitude ridging. Just a matter of when. Even all timers like 77-78 didn’t crank up until end of December. Only winters I remember where it was Dec-Mar were 09-10 and 13-14.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It’s coming. Weak PV is going to mean high latitude ridging. Just a matter of when. Even all timers like 77-78 didn’t crank up until end of December. Only winters I remember where it was Dec-Mar were 09-10 and 13-14.

Correct and maybe 1997.

[Quixotic]

It’s coming. Weak PV is going to mean high latitude ridging. Just a matter of when. Even all timers like 77-78 didn’t crank up until end of December. Only winters I remember where it was Dec-Mar were 09-10 and 13-14.

Correct and maybe 1997.

96-97 or 95-96 or 97-98? I remember 97-98 being a torch. 63-64 is another example but alas, predates me.

[Iceresistance]

I can't check the weather models and do Concurrent College Finals at the same time!

Doing this post because I'm taking a break after finishing one of them, this is more stressful than I though it would be!

[Brent]

This would speed up the pattern change if this verified as inconsistent as the GFS has been it has been fairly consistent showing some sort of storm in this timeframe with cold air nearby

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS takes out the snow, but still has the cold air into Oklahoma.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS past 300 hours finally caving to the other models.

Pumping big ridge into Alaska and connecting with Greenland block. That would spell a cold Christmas week.