Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TropicalTundra]

Someone tell South Texas Storms to go thump wxman57 on the head and let him know, he needs to head to Australia.

I think he's aware the cold is coming...he just doesn't want to accept it yet. My long-range coworker and I have been calling for a colder weather pattern to return in late December since Thanksgiving, but wxman keeps calling us cold misers.

He'll come around soon enough.

Alter ego 57 will come around sooner than later

[Iceresistance]

Someone tell South Texas Storms to go thump wxman57 on the head and let him know, he needs to head to Australia.

I think he's aware the cold is coming...he just doesn't want to accept it yet. My long-range coworker and I have been calling for a colder weather pattern to return in late December since Thanksgiving, but wxman keeps calling us cold misers.

He'll come around soon enough.

Alter ego 57 will come around sooner than later

Or better yet, like TSD said, he may need to run and fly to Australia like what he did in February 2021!

[Iceresistance]

Update CPC Hazards map, likely the last one until Monday, 12/12 unless otherwise noted.


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours-2.png

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Severe cold is definitely on the table now. As noted earlier we get blinks of it because the time frame is too far out but as the period gets closer it becomes louder. It's a gradual succession of air masses beginning middle of the new week.

3-4 Standard Deviation Ridge above normal for a Mean across
Alaska this far out is about the best indicator you’ll find for a lower 48 Severe Outbreak week 2 forecast. Like you discussed earlier, this doesn’t look like a very difficult forecast for an outbreak…it’s just a matter of how severe at this point

Side note: The 3 most populated regions in the northern hemisphere are about to get hit pretty hard…should be very concerning for our energy supplies going forward if this drags on too long

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg%20/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_5day/1670587200/1671710400-a21lIiKxM2Y.png

I made this point earlier in the week. It's wild how far out the ensembles are seeing such a large anomaly.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Severe cold is definitely on the table now. As noted earlier we get blinks of it because the time frame is too far out but as the period gets closer it becomes louder. It's a gradual succession of air masses beginning middle of the new week.

3-4 Standard Deviation Ridge above normal for a Mean across
Alaska this far out is about the best indicator you’ll find for a lower 48 Severe Outbreak week 2 forecast. Like you discussed earlier, this doesn’t look like a very difficult forecast for an outbreak…it’s just a matter of how severe at this point

Side note: The 3 most populated regions in the northern hemisphere are about to get hit pretty hard…should be very concerning for our energy supplies going forward if this drags on too long

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_5day/1670587200/1671710400-a21lIiKxM2Y.png

You’re absolutely correct on the energy side, and it could have easily been avoided. Alas, the circus clowns running the major global economies, especially ours, are going to screw their own supporters.

I can’t say I feel sorry for them.

[bubba hotep]

The WPO isn't talked about that much, but the negative phase is often associated with widespread cold, and December '83 was a negative WPO month. Most models now see the WPO going negative.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The WPO isn't talked about that much, but the negative phase is often associated with widespread cold, and December '83 was a negative WPO month. Most models now see the WPO going negative.

https://i.ibb.co/2YtkHp7/WPO.png

Itryatgolf is going to love you so much.

[Iceresistance]

Now the Euro and GFS flipped again! Could the Euro get it's revenge after the February 2021 flop?

[harp]

Now the Euro and GFS flipped again! Could the Euro get it's revenge after the February 2021 flop?

Flipped??

[Iceresistance]

Now the Euro and GFS flipped again! Could the Euro get it's revenge after the February 2021 flop?

Flipped??

The Euro is now showing insane cold while the GFS has been all over the place.

Mid-20s in the DFW area and a light freeze in Houston on the 18th is "insane cold"? Well, I guess it is, for me. GFS has 40s for the lows that day. I love the 18Z GFS run with mid 70s here on Christmas Day. Not quite 80F, but getting closer. I'm still not seeing any significant cold in the long range. Upper air pattern just doesn't look right. Air coming from the Gulf of Alaska vs. cross-Polar.

[Ntxw]

I remember in summer when the cpc had so much fun drawing lines all over the place over and over for Texas with heat risks forever. Well just as fun the other way now let us hope it is all kinds of cold forever .



We have a near perfect (projection) planetary alignment of all the indexes. Not to mention the secret sauce that was Hunga Tonga.

[Quixotic]

Don’t know if it’s been posted yet but the CPC analogs is like an all time list of cold and snow for DFW. Not hyperbole when I say I’ve never seen a list like that.

[Quixotic]

61, 63, 77, 83, 89, 2009

[Ntxw]

Now the Euro and GFS flipped again! Could the Euro get it's revenge after the February 2021 flop?

Flipped??

The Euro is now showing insane cold while the GFS has been all over the place.

GFS puts a big trough over the Canadian Archipelago where it had a ridge just last run, but of course long range .

[harp]

The GFS is truly schizophrenic. Each run is different. Glad there are other tools that show SOME consistency.

[Itryatgolf]

That's why I get online once a day to not get into all the emotional rollacoasters models will bring. Except when there is a realistic chance at a winter storm and then that's different lol. In all seriousness, hopefully we have some opportunities at winter weather if it's going to get cold

[bubba hotep]

The longer range OPs are no more accurate than the individual members of an ensemble. The 12z Euro EPS had members with highs at DFW in the 60s on the 23rd but also members with lows in the single digits. So the 18z GFS OP was well within those boundaries, lol! However, ensembles do highlight the fact that there are still warmer risks, even if they are small.

[Iceresistance]

The longer range OPs are no more accurate than the individual members of an ensemble. The 12z Euro EPS had members with highs at DFW in the 60s on the 23rd but also members with lows in the single digits. So the 18z GFS OP was well within those boundaries, lol! However, ensembles do highlight the fact that there are still warmer risks, even if they are small.

Would the odds of a failed cold become a torch be around 10-15%?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The longer range OPs are no more accurate than the individual members of an ensemble. The 12z Euro EPS had members with highs at DFW in the 60s on the 23rd but also members with lows in the single digits. So the 18z GFS OP was well within those boundaries, lol! However, ensembles do highlight the fact that there are still warmer risks, even if they are small.

Would the odds of a failed cold become a torch be around 10-15%?

You don’t torch with a -AO.

It would just be seasonal or average if the warm members verified. I put it at <5%

[Iceresistance]

The longer range OPs are no more accurate than the individual members of an ensemble. The 12z Euro EPS had members with highs at DFW in the 60s on the 23rd but also members with lows in the single digits. So the 18z GFS OP was well within those boundaries, lol! However, ensembles do highlight the fact that there are still warmer risks, even if they are small.

Would the odds of a failed cold become a torch be around 10-15%?

You don’t torch with a -AO.

It would just be seasonal or average if the warm members verified. I put it at <5%

Makes more sense now with a -AO in play.