Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Quixotic]

I hate the warm nose.

[txtwister78]

That run also reverses a warming trend that occurred across the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs.

check out the short range RGEM, even colder

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/tx/t2m_f/1674842400/1675144800-oURQyPUrUgc.png

Why won’t this make it to Louisiana?

Some of it will however placement/delivery of the arctic airmass matters along with in this particular case the SE ridge dominating that region. Arctic air will more than likely slowly bleed east into parts of Louisiana as it spreads out and modifies up against the ridge. It just takes a little more time to do under this setup.

Another factor that often delays arctic air from SE TX into parts of Louisiana is the mountain range (Quachita) up in Arkansas that act as a temporary dam. This is why you see the coldest air drain down into central and southern TX first (depending on the strength of the arctic HP) before spreading into your region.

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah not liking the NAM trend of more ice. May mess up plans next week I had for classes.

I may have to move things to Monday just in case.

A light glaze to .15 or so isn’t too bad. But don’t want a heavy accretion.

[Cpv17]

Y’all should watch the Wednesday-Friday timeframe up there in Dallas for a possible snow event. Wouldn’t rule it out.

[Gotwood]

Y’all should watch the Wednesday-Friday timeframe up there in Dallas for a possible snow event. Wouldn’t rule it out.

Winter is coming

[Iceresistance]

Good lord, I got SLEETED by the 18z RGEM!

[Cpv17]

Y’all should watch the Wednesday-Friday timeframe up there in Dallas for a possible snow event. Wouldn’t rule it out.

Winter is coming

Yeah, it’s definitely going to be cold up there in Dallas and all of north Texas next week. Question I have is how far that cold can make it south. Local forecasts here in the Houston area have 50’s and 60’s for highs next week lol hardly cold at all.

[Ntxw]

Y’all should watch the Wednesday-Friday timeframe up there in Dallas for a possible snow event. Wouldn’t rule it out.

Winter is coming

Yeah, it’s definitely going to be cold up there in Dallas and all of north Texas next week. Question I have is how far that cold can make it south. Local forecasts here in the Houston area have 50’s and 60’s for highs next week lol hardly cold at all.

I feel your pain. SE ridge arch nemesis is -AO and -NAO (west based) that's how cold is really driven to Mexico and the gulf. Ridging in Eastern/Atlantic Canada crushes the SE ridge. Numerous times in other years the cold is hung up on Kansas/Oklahoma because eastern Canada is easy path.

[Gotwood]

If you haven’t done so already just throw out the GFS OP.

[harp]

If you haven’t done so already just throw out the GFS OP.

Why?

[orangeblood]

If you haven’t done so already just throw out the GFS OP.

No question, it’s now 6-7 F warmer than its Ensemble Mean now…which is trending colder toward CMC

[Iceresistance]

If you haven’t done so already just throw out the GFS OP.

Why?

It's horribly underestimating the Shallow Arctic Air.

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnhEJL1agAAL5xQ?format=jpg&name=small

What is it? I can't see it

[Ntxw]

If the trends go colder and faster probably a product of the high showing up over the land now.

[SnowintheFalls]

Good lord, I got SLEETED by the 18z RGEM!

Where can you see the RGEM? I didn't see it on TT.

[Iceresistance]

Good lord, I got SLEETED by the 18z RGEM!

Where can you see the RGEM? I didn't see it on TT.

It is on TT in the Mesoscale section on the models, it's near the bottom of the selection.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-27-6.09.14-PM.png

[bubba hotep]

Pete Delkus
@wfaaweather
·
1m
Next week: Most of North Texas will see just a cold rain. Areas mainly northwest of the metroplex could see some freezing rain Tuesday and Wednesday morning. This could lead to slick roads in those areas before temps go above freezing during the afternoon. #wfaaweather

[SnowintheFalls]

Good lord, I got SLEETED by the 18z RGEM!

Where can you see the RGEM? I didn't see it on TT.

It is on TT in the Mesoscale section on the models, it's near the bottom of the selection.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-27-6.09.14-PM.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-27-6.09.14-PM.png

Found it, thanks!

[CaptinCrunch]

Pete Delkus
@wfaaweather
·
1m
Next week: Most of North Texas will see just a cold rain. Areas mainly northwest of the metroplex could see some freezing rain Tuesday and Wednesday morning. This could lead to slick roads in those areas before temps go above freezing during the afternoon. #wfaaweather
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnhL_WIWAAALloc?format=jpg&name=small