Texas Winter 2022-2023

[gpsnowman]

Made it to work under a combo of sleet and freezing rain. Just nasty. Heavy sleet shower currently. Keeps alternating back and forth. The snow is still on the table for tomorrow evening as the ULL passes over. Stay safe today Texans!!!

[orangeblood]

Mix of sleet and freezing rain here. Looks like most of the 12z hi-res models are warming things up too fast and the 14z HRRR is already too warm with it's 15z forecast. The WRF-NSSL seems to have the best handle on surface temps and, well, it produces the most concerning output.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2023020112/048/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Yep. Wrf has had the best handle the past few runs.

Although it varied run to run, The ensemble Bulls Eye (sub freezing and highest QPF) for this event continued to be the Metroplex going back to even late last week. I don’t see any reason that has changed, best to prepare for the worst and hope for best. But Major Tree damage and Power outages becoming more likely…in an area with almost 8 million people

[Gotwood]

Mix of sleet and freezing rain here. Looks like most of the 12z hi-res models are warming things up too fast and the 14z HRRR is already too warm with it's 15z forecast. The WRF-NSSL seems to have the best handle on surface temps and, well, it produces the most concerning output.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2023020112/048/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Yep. Wrf has had the best handle the past few runs.

Although it varied run to run, The ensemble Bulls Eye (sub freezing and highest QPF) for this event continued to be the Metroplex going back to even late last week. I don’t see any reason that has changed, best to prepare for the worst and hope for best. But Major Tree damage and Power outages becoming more likely…in an area with almost 8 million people

Yeah crews are standing by in the area. Good news is warmer temps are right around the corner.

[Quixotic]

Not sure what’s going on here in Denton but nothing is reaching the ground. Temp is 27 but DP is 14! Dryslot? A big layer of dry air aloft? Strange.

[Iceresistance]

Not sure what’s going on here in Denton but nothing is reaching the ground. Temp is 27 but DP is 14! Dryslot? A big layer of dry air aloft? Strange.

I'm having the same thing too except there is nothing on radar, that was confirmed by the NWS Sounding in Norman.

[Ralph's Weather]

Mix of sleet and freezing rain here. Looks like most of the 12z hi-res models are warming things up too fast and the 14z HRRR is already too warm with it's 15z forecast. The WRF-NSSL seems to have the best handle on surface temps and, well, it produces the most concerning output.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2023020112/048/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Yep. Wrf has had the best handle the past few runs.

Although it varied run to run, The ensemble Bulls Eye (sub freezing and highest QPF) for this event continued to be the Metroplex going back to even late last week. I don’t see any reason that has changed, best to prepare for the worst and hope for best. But Major Tree damage and Power outages becoming more likely…in an area with almost 8 million people

Yeah crews are standing by in the area. Good news is warmer temps are right around the corner.

The US 79 corridor is hardest hit on the outage front. Prefect storm of lots of trees and enough freezing rain.

[snowballzzz]

Not sure what’s going on here in Denton but nothing is reaching the ground. Temp is 27 but DP is 14! Dryslot? A big layer of dry air aloft? Strange.

Same here. I've seen a few sprinkles/pellets fall out of the sky here in Bowie. I'm in the "middle" of it, according to radar but nothing has really come down at all. Must be drying up before reaching the ground since we are in the mid 20s rather than near 30-31 like a lot of places south of us.

[Iceresistance]

31% of Robertson County, TX is without power, the numbers of power outages is only going up.

[GeauxTigers]

Not sure what’s going on here in Denton but nothing is reaching the ground. Temp is 27 but DP is 14! Dryslot? A big layer of dry air aloft? Strange.

Yea seems I’m in same “dry slot” 30 min north of Denton. Radar showing precip all around me but nothing here.

[orangeblood]

Not sure what’s going on here in Denton but nothing is reaching the ground. Temp is 27 but DP is 14! Dryslot? A big layer of dry air aloft? Strange.

Was noticing QPF really dropping off north of DFW on some of the most recent model runs

[Quixotic]

Not sure what’s going on here in Denton but nothing is reaching the ground. Temp is 27 but DP is 14! Dryslot? A big layer of dry air aloft? Strange.

Same here. I've seen a few sprinkles/pellets fall out of the sky here in Bowie. I'm in the "middle" of it, according to radar but nothing has really come down at all. Must be drying up before reaching the ground since we are in the mid 20s rather than near 30-31 like a lot of places south of us.

Yeah. This is actually one that I’d rather miss out on if it’s going be an ice storm. If it’s as bad as they say it’s going to be then I’ll take a hard pass. But it seems as if I’ve been in the screw zone this entire event.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CoF7enpM7M_ ... MTA2M2Y%3D

[HockeyTx82]

Not sure what’s going on here in Denton but nothing is reaching the ground. Temp is 27 but DP is 14! Dryslot? A big layer of dry air aloft? Strange.

Was noticing QPF really dropping off north of DFW on some of the most recent model runs

Wake me up when it's Friday

[orangeblood]

To illustrate Hi Res capabilities, check out the temp output along the river bottoms of North and Central Texas later tonight

[DonWrk]

Not sure what’s going on here in Denton but nothing is reaching the ground. Temp is 27 but DP is 14! Dryslot? A big layer of dry air aloft? Strange.

Was noticing QPF really dropping off north of DFW on some of the most recent model runs

Yep, yesterday was looking like a doomsday scenario. Now not even close. Go figure.

[snowballzzz]

Not sure what’s going on here in Denton but nothing is reaching the ground. Temp is 27 but DP is 14! Dryslot? A big layer of dry air aloft? Strange.

Was noticing QPF really dropping off north of DFW on some of the most recent model runs

Yep, yesterday was looking like a doomsday scenario. Now not even close. Go figure.

I'd consider it a life saver. I don't want half an inch of ice and no power. We still have several hours of precip chances ahead of us today but I'll take the virga and graupel over freezing rain.

[JDawg512]

Woke up to find several branches from my Live Oak in the front yard broken. So far still have power but my sister who is a few miles south of my location has as well as a friend on the northside of Austin. There are a few houses down the street from me without power according to the outage map.

[Iceresistance]

I hope we've dodged the Ice Bullet with the Dry Slot, this is where we need the DFW Dry Slot for once!

[rwfromkansas]

I’m at 27.9 so officially the warmest I’ve been. Still just been a bit of sleet but betting that changes.

Not even the thinnest glaze on anything.

[orangeblood]

I hope we've dodged the Ice Bullet with the Dry Slot, this is where we need the DFW Dry Slot for once!

I wish but not looking likely this time around…the training of cells setting up along I-20 looks to be relentless later today