Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#241 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:00 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Unfortunately for us, as others above have noted, the GFS and its suites are not going to be reliable as we enter the blocking pattern. The skill scores for the upgraded version continues to be of lesser value than the old GFS prior.

Why are the skill levels even poorer with the upgraded models? That is so weird because in normal terms, the upgrade improves the accuracy of the model.


Update doesn't always mean better. Sometimes at the beginning stages of a change in NWP guidance can have issues before NOAA tweaks with minor fixes over the months.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#242 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:17 pm

The 18z GFS is already way different compared to 12z with a stronger Arctic HP early on, but weaker when we get to the 2nd full week of December.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#243 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:25 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The 18z GFS is already way different compared to 12z with a stronger Arctic HP early on, but weaker when we get to the 2nd full week of December.


The next 5 days of the GFS runs will probably look like a 3 year olds coloring book from run to run.

It will make no sense. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#244 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:29 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 18z GFS is already way different compared to 12z with a stronger Arctic HP early on, but weaker when we get to the 2nd full week of December.


The next 5 days of the GFS runs will probably look like a 3 year olds coloring book from run to run.

It will make no sense. :lol:

Okay, that was actually funny! :lol:

The outlook for the next couple of weeks is definitely much better compared to a few days ago.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#245 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:33 pm

Found this image from a different forum, this is the 12z EPS Control run on the Temperature anomalies for Days 8-15! :cold:

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/12z-Euro-Control.jpg
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#246 Postby Cerlin » Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:39 pm

Models are pretty consistent with blocking over Greenland and Alaska starting between the 13th and the 20th. Only good things can come from that setup! :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#247 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:42 pm

This is also from a different forum, but this is the Mean Euro-Ensembles from 0z!

5-10 days
Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/12z-Euro-Ensemble-5-10-Day-Mean.jpg

10-15 days
Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/12z-Euro-Ensemble-10-15-Day-Mean.jpg

EDIT: The gifs say 12z, but the run is 0z.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#248 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:44 pm

Cerlin wrote:Models are pretty consistent with blocking over Greenland and Alaska starting between the 13th and the 20th. Only good things can come from that setup! :cold:


Yup it may seem like a broken record every day as folks watch operational model outputs (in particular the GFS right now), but pattern recognition is still well pattern recognition. Only good things can happen is correct (from that setup) if you're in favor of a colder pattern.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#249 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:19 pm

What madness is this? 3-4 feet of snow in New Mexico and Texas when this is all done before Christmas?

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh240-384.gif
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#250 Postby harp » Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:32 pm

The heat ridge wins again on this run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#251 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:44 pm

harp wrote:The heat ridge wins again on this run.

This is the Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge (SE Ridge), not the Cockroach Death Ridge in the Summer.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#252 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:45 pm

harp wrote:The heat ridge wins again on this run.


Not too worried about the GFS. I think it’s out to lunch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#253 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote:The heat ridge wins again on this run.


Not too worried about the GFS. I think it’s out to lunch.


Its 500 mb pattern made zero sense in the 18z run.

It’s almost the opposite of the other models
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#254 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:28 pm

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1599930886325121026


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#255 Postby Itryatgolf » Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:01 pm

I think we need to watch the wpo and epo. If they trend negative, that's a good sign moving forward imo. Thing concerning me is the gefs is still bad in pacific and typically it's good with handling pacific features. We shall see if eps trends towards gefs or gefs trends towards eps. Imo depends on convection in IO unless it's not much to be concerned with :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#256 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:50 pm

Till the CPC buys in people won’t really take this seriously.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#257 Postby TropicalTundra » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:14 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Till the CPC buys in people won’t really take this seriously.


Was like that in Feb 21’ too. CPC didn’t even really start putting up warnings until we were in the midst of the chaos
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#258 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:28 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Till the CPC buys in people won’t really take this seriously.


The CPC is the last to do it usually. Even some of the northern AFDs have completely tossed the GFS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#259 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:33 pm

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#260 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:35 pm



Good God Loretta! It’s trying to lose its damn mind.
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