Texas Winter 2022-2023

[harp]

Now bleed some of that east into Louisiana….

[Ntxw]

Ensembles are sniffing out the EPO shift, which is about the frame we were expecting mid month, following the seasonal pattern.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ensembles are sniffing out the EPO shift, which is about the frame we were expecting mid month, following the seasonal pattern.

The Euro is showing 3 waves of cold in the long range.

1 next week, wave 2 gets to us around the 22nd roughly and wave 3 if it takes the same route would come right after Christmas. If all this verifies, we could be looking at one of of the colder Holiday seasons in a good while.

[harp]

Yes, but dry or wet? That’s the question.

[Ntxw]

Ensembles are sniffing out the EPO shift, which is about the frame we were expecting mid month, following the seasonal pattern.

The Euro is showing 3 waves of cold in the long range.

1 next week, wave 2 gets to us around the 22nd roughly and wave 3 if it takes the same route would come right after Christmas. If all this verifies, we could be looking at one of of the colder Holiday seasons in a good while.

With the -AO solidly in place. There's going to be snowstorms.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I just noticed on the 12z Euro that there is only one small spot of above average weather in the whole lower 48.... in SW Oregon and its barely above average.

That, ladies and gents, is what you call a full on high latitude block with all the TCs swinging our way.... if you like cold.

[Iceresistance]

I personally hope that I'm able to go to Missouri this winter from December 26th to December 30th. I haven't been there since 2019.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yes, but dry or wet? That’s the question.

High likelihood it would be a step down in terms of precip. Wave 1 brings frozen stuff to I-40 into Appalachia. Wave 2 could possibly bring it to I-20, and possibly Central Texas over to Northern HGX counties. After that, you could potentially see a Gulf Coast rider if the timing is right.

We are just way too far out to speculate on this yet. I like where the trends are heading.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!

It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.

[gpsnowman]

I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!

It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.

Just gotta get through this warm week. DFW airport sitting at 80 degrees at 3:15. YUCK!!!

[Iceresistance]

I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!

It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.

What are you doing awake at 80°F down there? Maybe getting a connection in your cold area?

It's 71°F here.

[Texas Snow]

I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!

It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.

I’ve been here lurking (and apparently not even signed in). Haven’t had enough confidence in the pattern to post anything yet, but certainly keep an eye on it as it may get interesting soon.

Ahhh, it’s good to be back!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!

It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.

What are you doing awake at 80°F down there? Maybe getting a connection in your cold area?

It's 71°F here.

Twiddling my thumbs like the Grinch ready to deliver Cold weather pain to the warm lovers in this area.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!

It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.

I’ve been here lurking (and apparently not even signed in). Haven’t had enough confidence in the pattern to post anything yet, but certainly keep an eye on it as it may get interesting soon.

Ahhh, it’s good to be back!

Regardless of severity, I feel very confident in a below average Holiday Season. Now, a snow storm or two and temps no higher than 40 would be lagniappe.

[Brent]

We were supposed to make a run at 70 today and it's still only 54. There was still dense fog at lunch!

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately for us, as others above have noted, the GFS and its suites are not going to be reliable as we enter the blocking pattern. The skill scores for the upgraded version continues to be of lesser value than the old GFS prior.

[Iceresistance]

We were supposed to make a run at 70 today and it's still only 54. There was still dense fog at lunch!

On the flip side, it's mostly sunny and 71°F outside at my location!

[Iceresistance]

Unfortunately for us, as others above have noted, the GFS and its suites are not going to be reliable as we enter the blocking pattern. The skill scores for the upgraded version continues to be of lesser value than the old GFS prior.

Why are the skill levels even poorer with the upgraded models? That is so weird because in normal terms, the upgrade improves the accuracy of the model.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Unfortunately for us, as others above have noted, the GFS and its suites are not going to be reliable as we enter the blocking pattern. The skill scores for the upgraded version continues to be of lesser value than the old GFS prior.

That’s amazing, and by amazing, I mean hysterically bad.

[Ntxw]

We were supposed to make a run at 70 today and it's still only 54. There was still dense fog at lunch!

On the flip side, it's mostly sunny and 71°F outside at my location!

Tulsa is edged by the cooler air mass to the North. It's a clash between cold north vs warm south.