Iceresistance wrote:Does the GFS have a dry bias or something?
Looks like it has to do with the 500mb pattern. Comparing the gfs to the cmc, the gfs shears out the system as it moves into Texas and builds high pressure over the western US, while the cmc keeps it much more intact with a more persistent trough over the western us. Result being that the cmc has a more prolonged event with better moisture return and flow of cold air than the gfs