Texas Winter 2022-2023

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snowballzzz
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#21 Postby snowballzzz » Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:04 am

CMC hinting at 20s-30s as lows on 10/11 for N TX/OK. Probably doesn't play out but nice to see the hints of actual fall and winter approaching!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#22 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:37 am

snowballzzz wrote:CMC hinting at 20s-30s as lows on 10/11 for N TX/OK. Probably doesn't play out but nice to see the hints of actual fall and winter approaching!

The CMC does have a tendency of showing temperatures colder than it should be.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#23 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 17, 2022 10:21 pm

snowballzzz wrote:CMC hinting at 20s-30s as lows on 10/11 for N TX/OK. Probably doesn't play out but nice to see the hints of actual fall and winter approaching!


looks like it was right :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#24 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Oct 30, 2022 3:28 pm

We definitely in that triple dip niña. Very rare for that I believe. During winter phases 4-6 of mjo are warm across the US. I think that's why typically early part of winter before actual winter starts they are cold, hence why they can be frontloaded. Does anyone think this winter will behave similar to last winter or be totally different?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#25 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:42 am

Looking deep into the ultra long range, the CFS is suggesting an active Mid to Late December, this does include the possibility of snow.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#26 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 22, 2022 11:32 am

Joe Bastardi has noticed that the Euro control could have a Christmas 2009 Repeat, but i can't post the tweet here because it contains politics!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#27 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 22, 2022 3:44 pm

DIfferent post, Joe Bastardi has no political intentions this time!

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1595143659259068416


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#28 Postby 869MB » Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:39 am

I posted this in the FALL Thread:

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#29 Postby Portastorm » Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:41 am

869MB wrote:I posted this in the FALL Thread:

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false


That's a great tool ... thanks for sharing!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#30 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:03 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#31 Postby 869MB » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:14 pm

Portastorm wrote:
869MB wrote:I posted this in the FALL Thread:

In addition to utilizing your local NWS pinpoint forecasts and weather apps, I would strongly recommend also utilizing the National Blend of Models 1D Viewer when determining your local temperature, wind, and precipitation forecasts. Just click on the menu option in the upper right corner to select the point on the map that’s the closest to your location. The link below gives you a good example of what the data looks like…

https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&obs=true&fontsize=1&location=KIWS&selectedgroup=Default&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=%3E%3D&probvalue=40&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local&colorfriendly=false


That's a great tool ... thanks for sharing!


Good deal. I figured most weather enthusiasts would find that data really, really helpful.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#32 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:23 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#33 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:28 pm

Southeast Texas centric from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control:

Heavy rainfall increasingly likely Thursday/Thursday night.

Guidance has been trending wetter for the upcoming storm system that will impact the area Thursday-Friday. Of note is the increasing potential for a warm front to move inland from near Matagorda Bay to Galveston Bay early Thursday and potential progress as far inland as the US 59 corridor. This is increasing the threat for sustained heavy rainfall and training of heavy rainfall along the warm front Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. It is unclear just how far inland the warm front may move and where the axis of heavy rainfall will reside, but area along and SE of the US 59 corridor appear to have the highest risk at the moment.

Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts are being increased into the 2-4 inch range north of I-10 and 4-6 inches south of I-10 for the period from Thursday-Saturday, but the majority of this rainfall will be Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

Hydro:
Given recent rainfall and currently wet grounds, especially south of I-10, forecasted rainfall will likely generate run-off across the county and rises on area watersheds. Street flooding will be the main threat where short duration rainfall rates exceed the local drainage capacities. At this time rises on area bayous and creeks are likely, but widespread overbank flooding looks low. Will need to keep an eye on Clear Creek and its tributaries, and the smaller watersheds in southeast Harris County depending on where the heaviest rains occur.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#34 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:17 pm

Update from Jeff at 4:21pm:Powerful storm system will bring widespread impacts Thursday-Saturday.

Heavy rainfall may lead to street flooding and rises on area creeks/bayous.

A strong storm system currently moving through the Rockies will move southward over the next 24-36 hours and cut-off from the main upper level flow aloft. This will result in widespread periods of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday:
Surface warm front will approach the upper TX coast early Thursday morning and move inland during the morning hours. Moisture and lift both increase during this period and expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity near the warm front. Warm front may approach the US 59 corridor by midday before slowing and potentially stalling Thursday afternoon. High resolution guidance has trended toward a line or several clusters of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall developing near the warm front Thursday midday into the afternoon hours. Parameters will certainly be in place along and south of the warm front for isolated severe storms and excessive rainfall with good low level inflow off the Gulf, moisture levels over the 90th percentile for mid November, strong lift, and a nearly saturated warm layer. A lot of the parameters on a flash flood decision tree are checked and warm fronts are notorious in these sort of setups for producing excessive rainfall. Best case is the warm front is held closer to the coast keeping the heavier rainfall in coastal Brazoria and Galveston Counties.

Friday-Saturday:
Models have again slowed down the movement of the upper level low to our west as is common with these digging systems…should see a break in the rainfall Friday morning, before another round of widespread at times heavy rains move back into the area Friday afternoon and evening. Will need to monitor this time period closely as grounds become increasingly saturated and run-off increases. Showers may linger into midday Saturday, before this system finally exits to the east.

Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall amounts have increased today both due to the potential for slow moving and training thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and due to the longer duration of rainfall now expected into Friday and Saturday.

Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected on Thursday afternoon with isolated totals upwards of 5-6 inches. Some high resolution guidance continues to show a band of 5-7 inches near the warm front Thursday afternoon and this is concerning. Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches may be possible Thursday afternoon and this will lead to rapid street flooding and significant rises on creeks and bayous.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected Friday/Saturday on top of what falls on Thursday and this will only worsen ongoing run-off from the Thursday rainfall.

Hydro:
Soils are primed for run-off with recent wetting rainfall over the region. Main concern is street flooding, but do not want to disregard the potential for some significant rises on area watersheds, especially if the higher totals are realized in portions of Harris County. Greatest concern is for the southern and southeastern portions of Harris County where soils are the wettest and potential rainfall the highest, but this axis of highest rainfall could still shift around some, so not confident in pin pointing any particular watershed. Generally most of the watersheds can handle 3-4 inches…once/if we start to exceed 5 inches the concern for any flooding of bayous/creeks listed below will increase.

Overall highest concerns IF 5-7 inches are realized in Harris County would be:

Clear Creek and its tributaries
Armand Bayou
Hunting Bayou
Halls Bayou (upper around I-45)
Little Cypress Creek
Willow Creek
South Mayde Creek (lower near Greenhouse)
Keegans Bayou (lower near Beltway 8/US 59/Wilcrest area)
Willow Waterhole
Brickhouse Gully
Spring Branch Creeks (Spring Branch, Buttermilk, Briar Branch)

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#35 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Nov 23, 2022 10:29 pm

The ridging on the long range GEFS in the EPO region isn’t positioned right to bring us cold down here. It’s way too far west over the Aleutians.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#36 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:59 pm

From Jeff Lindner at Harris County Flood Control:

Active weather day for SE TX with both an isolated severe threat and heavy rainfall.

Additional heavy rainfall likely on Friday


Strong upper level storm system is slowly moving into W TX and E MN this morning with a surface warm front nearing the upper TX coast. Showers have begun to develop along and north of the surface warm front and these showers will increase in intensity and coverage this morning, especially after 10-11am. Surface trough approaches from the west through the day and combination of the trough and warm front will result in an active afternoon of thunderstorms. Warm front may make it as far inland as the US 59/I-10 corridors this afternoon depending on how much showers activity develops north of the boundary this morning. Regardless, with increasing lift from the west, surface boundaries in place, high moisture levels, and veered wind profiles numerous strong to isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall will be possible. There will likely be a break in the activity tonight and into Friday morning, before another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday afternoon with the formation of a slow moving coastal trough/low ahead of the main upper level system over far SW TX/NE MX. This system continues to be a bit slower which is common with these digging upper level cut-off lows and rains may linger into Saturday morning.

Heavy Rainfall:
Moisture profiles continue to increase with 30kt low level jet bringing copious moisture northward off the western Gulf of Mexico. Air mass shows a deep saturated warm layer through 10,000 ft which will help to support effective rainfall processes. Additionally the threat for cells to train or backbuilding into the upper level flow increases the risk for heavy rainfall and short fused flash flooding. Hourly rainfall rates of 1.0-2.5 inches will be possible with the stronger storms this afternoon with widespread amounts of 1-3 inches over the region. If/where any sustained cell training develops, which some of the high resolution guidance and HREF products are showing….totals of 5-6 inches will be possible. These higher totals would tend to be in narrow corridors and are most likely generally southeast of a line from Lake Livingston to Brenham. The main threat will be street flooding with the higher short duration amounts.

WPC has the area outlooked in a slight risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding both today and Friday.

Hydro:
No significant changes from the thinking from last night. Anticipate most of the channels can handle the forecasted amounts today. Soils are primed for run-off with recent wetting rainfall over the region. Main concern is street flooding, but do not want to disregard the potential for some significant rises on area watersheds, especially if the higher totals are realized in portions of Harris County. Generally most of the watersheds can handle 3-4 inches…once/if we start to exceed 5 inches the concern for any flooding of bayous/creeks listed below will increase. Will need to see how the rainfall plays out today as it will lower flash flood thresholds over the area and with additional heavy rainfall possible Friday, the threat for flooding will increase with time.

Overall highest concerns IF 5-7 inches are realized in Harris County would be:

Clear Creek and its tributaries
Armand Bayou
Hunting Bayou
Halls Bayou (upper around I-45)
Little Cypress Creek
Willow Creek
South Mayde Creek (lower near Greenhouse)
Keegans Bayou (lower near Beltway 8/US 59/Wilcrest area)
Willow Waterhole
Brickhouse Gully
Spring Branch Creeks (Spring Branch, Buttermilk, Briar Branch)

Severe Threat:
While likely secondary to the heavy rainfall threat, do not want to disregard the isolated severe threat. There is certainly plenty of wind shear in the atmosphere for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Main focus will likely be near and south of the diffuse warm frontal boundary where higher levels of instability will be found. Overall instability is lacking, but these strong cold season systems tend not to need as much to produce severe weather. Main threat will likely be an isolated damaging wind gust or isolated tornado especially near that warm frontal boundary where low level winds are backed and support a bit more turning in the lowest levels of the air mass. SPC has the region outlooked in a (1 out of 5) risk level for today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#37 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:48 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#38 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:48 pm

Yeah I predict this thread is gonna be off to a lively start if the models are even half right
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#39 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 10:14 pm




Geez. That has to be one of the coldest ensemble runs I’ve ever seen. That’s nutsos! (My way of saying nuts lol)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#40 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 24, 2022 10:20 pm

Cpv17 wrote:



Geez. That has to be one of the coldest ensemble runs I’ve ever seen. That’s nutsos! (My way of saying nuts lol)

The last part was funny! :lol:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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