Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6441 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:47 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Take a look at the MJO! Hope for a Winter into March has not been lost! :cold: :froze: :cold:

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GEFS.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/GEFS.png


I posted a while back that the combo of shifting ENSO, MJO, lag SSW impacts, etc, were going to set the table for a big March. It's nice to a plan come together lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6442 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 24, 2023 12:15 pm

The weather is going to get crazy in the next couple of weeks, even when we move into the spring thread.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6443 Postby Gotwood » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:32 pm

March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6444 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:37 pm

Gotwood wrote:March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?


Will it get colder? Probably, but for March. Which isn't terribly cold compared to Jan or Feb. Snow? Maybe in panhandle or Oklahoma, I-20 and south is not common, but can happen. It's about as hopeful as November.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6445 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:38 pm

Gotwood wrote:March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?

12z GEFS has a good snowfall signal.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6446 Postby Gotwood » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:49 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Gotwood wrote:March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?


Will it get colder? Probably, but for March. Which isn't terribly cold compared to Jan or Feb. Snow? Maybe in panhandle or Oklahoma, I-20 and south is not common, but can happen. It's about as hopeful as November.

Sounds like you are about ready to head into the spring thread.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6447 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:07 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Gotwood wrote:March 3rd time frame looks very interesting for some possible winter weather. Ensembles in agreement?


Will it get colder? Probably, but for March. Which isn't terribly cold compared to Jan or Feb. Snow? Maybe in panhandle or Oklahoma, I-20 and south is not common, but can happen. It's about as hopeful as November.

Sounds like you are about ready to head into the spring thread.


Just being realistic. Late January and early Feb, despite the discrepancies in upper flow, was actually easier to forecast cold with. The upcoming pattern can yield below normal but that doesn't mean extreme cold. Damp and chilly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6448 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:22 pm

Great feeling day today after the hot weather this week. Overcast and in the low 30s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6449 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:54 pm

The Nina is going to collapse. Standing wave will be replaced by sinking air over the MC (Indonesia) as we move toward spring.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6450 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:04 pm

Ntxw wrote:The Nina is going to collapse. Standing wave will be replaced by sinking air over the MC (Indonesia) as we move toward spring.

https://i.imgur.com/qwprwpY.gif


Finally! Should allow us to enter into a hopefully more wet extended period.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6451 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 24, 2023 4:33 pm

Best of both worlds across Texas today. Low 80s here in Houston and 40s for your northerners up in D-FW. I wouldn't count on any snow up in the D-FW area on March 3-4. Maybe central and northern Oklahoma.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6452 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 25, 2023 12:05 pm

This should have happened a month sooner but at least it won't be a warm start to spring. Below normal most likely. NAO has a stronger correlation this time of year than earlier. On cue with onset of El Ninos, warm prior winters making way to a wet/cool spring.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6453 Postby Itryatgolf » Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:28 pm

The gefs and euro ensembles have the wpo/epo going pretty negative. I believe the SSW is having some effect also. Hopefully it happens with enough moisture to have one last hoorah at a winter event. If that indeed pans out, it should get pretty cold around here imo.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6454 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:11 pm

It looks like that February 2023 is going to end with a BANG! Literally!

Image
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/spcd2four_panel.us_sc.png
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6455 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:38 am

The moderate risk is all the way over to me now :double: :spam: I don't think I've ever seen this when its 46 degrees out but clearly the wind potential especially is high end
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6456 Postby wxman57 » Sun Feb 26, 2023 11:36 am

Itryatgolf wrote:The gefs and euro ensembles have the wpo/epo going pretty negative. I believe the SSW is having some effect also. Hopefully it happens with enough moisture to have one last hoorah at a winter event. If that indeed pans out, it should get pretty cold around here imo.


Where is "here"? This forum covers from south Texas to Oklahoma. You can update your profile with a general location.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6457 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Feb 26, 2023 11:50 am

wxman57 wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:The gefs and euro ensembles have the wpo/epo going pretty negative. I believe the SSW is having some effect also. Hopefully it happens with enough moisture to have one last hoorah at a winter event. If that indeed pans out, it should get pretty cold around here imo.


Where is "here"? This forum covers from south Texas to Oklahoma. You can update your profile with a general location.

I think he's in Jonesboro, AR
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6458 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:08 pm

This talk of derecho in OK reminded me of the KS "inland hurricane" when I was a kid: https://www.weather.gov/ict/inlandhurricane

Very early for this type of storm considering it's February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6459 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:56 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:This talk of derecho in OK reminded me of the KS "inland hurricane" when I was a kid: https://www.weather.gov/ict/inlandhurricane

Very early for this type of storm considering it's February.


It's in the 50s now in Oklahoma and the line is supposed to move through Oklahoma overnight. It is a little early and linear might be the best mode.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6460 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:This talk of derecho in OK reminded me of the KS "inland hurricane" when I was a kid: https://www.weather.gov/ict/inlandhurricane

Very early for this type of storm considering it's February.


It's in the 50s now in Oklahoma and the line is supposed to move through Oklahoma overnight. It is a little early and linear might be the best mode.


Yeah still only 54 here. Such a weird day for severe weather. Its definitely gonna be a line for most of the state although they are talking about a high end line
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