Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4741 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Jan 27, 2023 7:50 pm

I have nothing backing it, but I don’t think, especially in areas up here that we will go above freezing for those couple of days. When has strong fronts not come in colder, faster and stronger than forecasted? The past winters which have all been La Niña winters, the forecasted highs and highs shown on models have all been way too warm with these type of fronts. The lows have also usually been quite a bit lower.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4742 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 27, 2023 7:52 pm

Every forecast I see is hugging the GFS and Euro.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4743 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:07 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Every forecast I see is hugging the GFS and Euro.

It's going to be either they're right, or they will be in for a nasty surprise, NWS-Norman has taken note of the CMC and RGEM models though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4744 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:09 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
Pete Delkus
@wfaaweather
·
1m
Next week: Most of North Texas will see just a cold rain. Areas mainly northwest of the metroplex could see some freezing rain Tuesday and Wednesday morning. This could lead to slick roads in those areas before temps go above freezing during the afternoon. #wfaaweather
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnhL_WIWAAALloc?format=jpg&name=small


:spam: :spam: :spam: :froze: :froze: :froze:


Lol we’re doomed now, The Delkus Curse…DFW Ice Storm almost guaranteed!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4745 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jan 27, 2023 8:26 pm

After looking at things a bit, if I was going to draw up a freezing rain/sleet setup for Texas, then I would have a much deeper positive tilted Western Trough. We get a s/w cutoff in the SW, but it isn't really sufficient to pull down a large batch of shallow cold air. The vast majority of the cold (even shallow) appears to get pulled eastward with the TPV. You see a better H5 connection to the SW s/w on the CMC vs. the GFS/Euro, which allows for more cold air to spill down the front range. Even shallow cold air needs a delivery mechanism.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4746 Postby Gotwood » Fri Jan 27, 2023 9:07 pm

orangeblood wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:


:spam: :spam: :spam: :froze: :froze: :froze:


Lol we’re doomed now, The Delkus Curse…DFW Ice Storm almost guaranteed!

Yeah pretty crazy that he is coming with that this early in the game. DFW has a real chance to get absolutely hammered.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4747 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 27, 2023 9:47 pm

0z NAM takes us below freezing and goes below 30F for much of NTX, closer the CMC.

Said it earlier and will say it again. Set ups like these the models will throw pots and pans, and the kitchen sink to keep cold held up at the surface with flow a loft. Ends up beat many times. Weight and rising heights can win.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4748 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z NAM takes us below freezing and goes below 30F for much of NTX, closer the CMC.

Said it earlier and will say it again. Set ups like these the models will throw pots and pans, and the kitchen sink to keep cold held up at the surface with flow a loft. Ends up beat many times. Weight and rising heights can win.


I didn’t even consider freezing drizzle/rain an option down here … but sheesh … that 0z NAM has my attention. :eek:

NAM is hard to beat on temps when it comes to shallow Arctic air masses.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4749 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:09 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:0z NAM takes us below freezing and goes below 30F for much of NTX, closer the CMC.

Said it earlier and will say it again. Set ups like these the models will throw pots and pans, and the kitchen sink to keep cold held up at the surface with flow a loft. Ends up beat many times. Weight and rising heights can win.


I didn’t even consider freezing drizzle/rain an option down here … but sheesh … that 0z NAM has my attention. :eek:

NAM is hard to beat on temps when it comes to shallow Arctic air masses.


0z RGEM is wetter than its prior run. C-TX would be in play. Shallow Arctic air masses are a fickle. They come in hard and tough to erode. They have tendency to be less influenced by pressure patterns above sitting low to the surface, unlike deeper cold that comes and goes quick like back in December!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4750 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:34 pm

0z Icon has a lot of qpf. DFW is very close to freezing while north and west are. This reminds me of the early February event last year that had good moisture with it.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4751 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z NAM takes us below freezing and goes below 30F for much of NTX, closer the CMC.

Said it earlier and will say it again. Set ups like these the models will throw pots and pans, and the kitchen sink to keep cold held up at the surface with flow a loft. Ends up beat many times. Weight and rising heights can win.


For roadway travel, this is the worst combo IMO….Long duration spotty Light rain and drizzle in the upper 20s. A la 1st event in Feb 2021
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4752 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z Icon has a lot of qpf. DFW is very close to freezing while north and west are. This reminds me of the early February event last year that had good moisture with it.


Only thing that may save this could be heavier precip bringing 40F plus 850 temps down with it, warming surface temps. FW NWS office mentioned this last night
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4753 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:13 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:0z Icon has a lot of qpf. DFW is very close to freezing while north and west are. This reminds me of the early February event last year that had good moisture with it.


Only thing that may save this could be heavier precip bringing 40F plus 850 temps down with it, warming surface temps. FW NWS office mentioned this last night


It may eventually! 0z CMC says oh yeah? QPF mid 20s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4754 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:20 pm

My gosh, the GFS is just so bad….72 hrs out 6pm Monday, DFW 42 F NAM 29 F
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4755 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:24 pm

orangeblood wrote:My gosh, the GFS is just so bad….72 hrs out 6pm Monday, DFW 42 F NAM 29 F


0z GEFS (its own ensembles) ~32F by noon hour Monday. Comical.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4756 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:41 pm

CMC isn’t messing around, Major Ice Storm ending as snow as ULL moves across on Thursday…3-4 day event

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4757 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:45 pm

Yeah I think we've established the fact that short range guidance (NAM, ARW, HRRR etc) handles these shallow arctic setups better this far south than the globals op's ever have (GFS/Euro) as mentioned the other day. Now the question becomes how far south does the freezing line make it into TX. NAM 3km at 60 hours was a few degrees colder than 12km and so that may make all the difference should that trend continue as to the depth of this frozen precip impact into TX.

But hey credit to the CMC because it's been locked on for several days now. Might end up being a little too cold/overdone on ice (hopefully) but overall, not bad for a change.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4758 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:53 pm

I could definitely see central Texas being in play here. Austin area better watch out!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4759 Postby Haris » Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:20 am

CMC ensembles are insane. Widespread icing def looking legit threat for central and northern texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4760 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:24 am

Why such low attendance at 3:30 am? Come on weather nuts, wake up!!!!! The Iceman cometh. Maybe next week actually I am going back to sleep.
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