Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

We don't need to do much guessing anymore. Frontogenesis will happen today in the northern plains as height rises. Cold front will come through tomorrow but will be gradual behind it.

Driving mechanism at the surface is here.

[orangeblood]

12z GFS says, "There might be a wee chance" (This is later in the week and not the potential freezing drizzle event)

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023012812/168/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Canadian on board and has been leading from 1st tee box…consistency heavily favored in setups like this

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674907200/1675501200-4DryqL9twZY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1674907200/1675501200-MhxPWRiwvQU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1674907200/1675501200-w2LNg18z25g.png

For the high on Tuesday, FWD is pretty close to the GFS/Euro. The 12k NAM has DFW below freezing and the CMC is in the twenties. Who is going to bust - FWD/Euro/GFS or CMC/12kNAM?

Truly perplexed why this office would side with the globals in a setup like this. The globals make the same errors every winter, is there a big turnover at the FW NWS office or something ? local climate experience is a valuable tool when forecasting, why isn’t it being used ? Even more frustrating are the discrepancies weren’t even mentioned in their discussion

Frozen precip isn’t even in the DFW forecast and we’re less than 60 hrs from a potentially significant event. Have friends/family that have no clue

[bubba hotep]

Canadian on board and has been leading from 1st tee box…consistency heavily favored in setups like this

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674907200/1675501200-4DryqL9twZY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1674907200/1675501200-MhxPWRiwvQU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1674907200/1675501200-w2LNg18z25g.png

For the high on Tuesday, FWD is pretty close to the GFS/Euro. The 12k NAM has DFW below freezing and the CMC is in the twenties. Who is going to bust - FWD/Euro/GFS or CMC/12kNAM?

Truly perplexed why this office would side with the globals in a setup like this. The globals make the same errors every winter, is there a big turnover at the FW NWS office or something ? local climate experience is a valuable tool when forecasting, why isn’t it being used ? Even more frustrating are the discrepancies weren’t even mentioned in their discussion

Frozen precip isn’t even in the DFW forecast and we’re less than 60 hrs from a potentially significant event. Have friends/family that have no clue

Delkus isn't buying in. I've mentioned a couple of times that there are some upper-level features that aren't favorable for a lot of bitter cold getting deep into Texas, even at the low levels. We'll find out soon enough lol

[rwfromkansas]

The NBM is pretty consistent showing light icing of .05 to .10 so not sure why FWD is ignoring their beloved NBM. I signed up for a free trial of Pivotal Weather Plus so I can see it. Abilene is the worst location with a bigger ice event.

[Ntxw]

Canadian on board and has been leading from 1st tee box…consistency heavily favored in setups like this

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674907200/1675501200-4DryqL9twZY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1674907200/1675501200-MhxPWRiwvQU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1674907200/1675501200-w2LNg18z25g.png

For the high on Tuesday, FWD is pretty close to the GFS/Euro. The 12k NAM has DFW below freezing and the CMC is in the twenties. Who is going to bust - FWD/Euro/GFS or CMC/12kNAM?

Truly perplexed why this office would side with the globals in a setup like this. The globals make the same errors every winter, is there a big turnover at the FW NWS office or something ? local climate experience is a valuable tool when forecasting, why isn’t it being used ? Even more frustrating are the discrepancies weren’t even mentioned in their discussion

Frozen precip isn’t even in the DFW forecast and we’re less than 60 hrs from a potentially significant event. Have friends/family that have no clue

Ensemble forecasting has improved greatly and I think in cold blasts like this, the not to be named OPs here should be treated as such, as ensemble members until they prove they have changed. NWS and NOAA likes the statistical approach and probability, which favors the ensembles.

7-10 days out I already mentioned this was going to be a problem, could see it from a mile away and it has done just that so far.

[Ntxw]

Delkus isn't buying in. I've mentioned a couple of times that there are some upper-level features that aren't favorable for a lot of bitter cold getting deep into Texas, even at the low levels. We'll find out soon enough lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fnkz2LDXoAAaEoW?format=jpg&name=small

While I agree it's not the most favorable, it's not the most unfavorable either. True zonal flow that locks up cold sees a trough/ULL over or just off the Pac NW if you go back and look at those patterns. Now that mixes the Pacific air and really holds it up. This is a little more progressive which does leave an opening.

[rwfromkansas]

At least Evan Andrews just said while it looks to be rain it’s too close to call as it’s just Saturday. So leaving room for colder.

[orangeblood]

For the high on Tuesday, FWD is pretty close to the GFS/Euro. The 12k NAM has DFW below freezing and the CMC is in the twenties. Who is going to bust - FWD/Euro/GFS or CMC/12kNAM?

Truly perplexed why this office would side with the globals in a setup like this. The globals make the same errors every winter, is there a big turnover at the FW NWS office or something ? local climate experience is a valuable tool when forecasting, why isn’t it being used ? Even more frustrating are the discrepancies weren’t even mentioned in their discussion

Frozen precip isn’t even in the DFW forecast and we’re less than 60 hrs from a potentially significant event. Have friends/family that have no clue

Delkus isn't buying in. I've mentioned a couple of times that there are some upper-level features that aren't favorable for a lot of bitter cold getting deep into Texas, even at the low levels. We'll find out soon enough lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fnkz2LDXoAAaEoW?format=jpg&name=small

Haha yes we will! I think your trough orientation point is valid and needs to be considered but have noticed over the years, once this type of Siberian air is dropped off in southern plains it’s very difficult to dislodge when you still have lowering heights coming in from the west regardless of orientation. It creates a magnet of sort for low level cold. However, it’s quickly eroded once new heights build in from that direction

[Ntxw]

Consistency as another topic. If you want discuss consistency look at the 0z from mid week to now for Tues 18z. CMC has been so consistent, ICON consider consistent as well.

[orangeblood]

Consistency as another topic. If you want discuss consistency look at the 0z from mid week to now for Tues 18z. CMC has been so consistent, ICON consider consistent as well.

https://i.imgur.com/raEg22Z.png

https://i.imgur.com/HOGVMVn.png

https://i.imgur.com/0f9eeOA.png

https://i.imgur.com/nkUu0Jb.png

Yep, has to weigh heavily in a forecast unless the setup is a known weakness. From 60 hrs out, Latest Euro and GFS are 10-14 F warmer than CMC/Short Range models…local Mets better be very careful with these forecasts

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is juiced up but keeps most of the ice and snow in West Texas.

[Tammie]

Pete Delkus just posted on FB and seems to be waffling toward a colder, possibly icier forecast… he changes his mind often it seems. Tough forecast.

[WXSnowman]

It looks like Pete Delkus might be coming around.

Apologies for not knowing how to attach a photo. My first post.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=751729202975929&set=a.341930167289170&type=3&mibextid=5zvaxg

[Iceresistance]

It looks like Pete Delkus might be coming around.

Apologies for not knowing how to attach a photo. My first post.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=751729202975929&set=a.341930167289170&type=3&mibextid=5zvaxg

Welcome to the team!

You can attach photos with the "[img}" and"{/img]" (They're both brackets), but this one does not work for now . . .

[Iceresistance]

He has Twitter, which is a good thing

 https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1619367211889565701




 https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1619398683153293312

[CaptinCrunch]

Pete Delkus just posted on FB and seems to be waffling toward a colder, possibly icier forecast… he changes his mind often it seems. Tough forecast.

He does after I post on his comments

[Haris]

hrrr says ice apocalypse begins Monday

[txtwister78]

You can see as we get closer to the frontal passage, the NAM is trending colder faster further south as it continues to get a better handle on the shallow arctic airmass and its progression into TX.

[txtwister78]

Freezing rain much further south as a result of the colder trend.

[rwfromkansas]

This is a tricky situation. If it’s too light yet cold we may repeat 2021 with patchy ice. I recall going to school that day worrying and yet not a bit of ice in my area. Just south that awful crash.

But, if it’s ice to me the sweet spot is .10-25. Enough to be dangerous and close things but not take down lots of infrastructure.

A little ice is IMO better than patchy stuff after 2021. But, not a major ice storm.