Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

That's the 12z gfs ensembles not gfs. Big difference

Oh wait! I just noticed that! The blue line is the GEFS (Control).

12zgfs has a teleconnection package also on weatherbell

I know that, but I don't have a paid subscription to be there to see it.

[txtwister78]

The way I look at it is for Texas anything below 32 for a prolonged period of time is considered "cold" for our standards and so I think despite these comparisons via the analogs, the important thing to remember is the players are all showing up for well below average temps late next week into the Christmas week period.

As thundersleet mentioned earlier and Ntxw outlined in terms of the players on the field/pattern setup (in particular the -EPO), the fun part (to me at least) is seeing it all come together. The rest of it (how cold, how much if any frozen prcip we get) won't be determined until we get closer to the target time period.

Look at it this way, at the very least it's going to feel more like Christmas this year for a change as opposed to Spring Break. I think we can all (minus 1 perhaps) get behind that.

[gpsnowman]

Yes I am definitely excited about a below average Christmas. Will it be below freezing with snow flying around? Hooe so but I won't be disappointed if we are in the 40s with cold rain. Just please no 78 degree days with a humid south wind. That is the worst and we've had too many of those the last few years.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS may not go as extreme as 18z, but it's very much still a dislodge of the TPV southward. Another delivery.

[South Texas Storms]

The way I look at it is for Texas anything below 32 for a prolonged period of time is considered "cold" for our standards and so I think despite these comparisons via the analogs, the important thing to remember is the players are all showing up for well below average temps late next week into the Christmas week period.

As thundersleet mentioned earlier and Ntxw outlined in terms of the players on the field/pattern setup (in particular the -EPO), the fun part (to me at least) is seeing it all come together. The rest of it (how cold, how much if any frozen prcip we get) won't be determined until we get closer to the target time period.

Look at it this way, at the very least it's going to feel more like Christmas this year for a change as opposed to Spring Break. I think we can all (minus 1 perhaps) get behind that.

Well said! If you enjoy balmy conditions in December then enjoy the next week. Cold weather lovers will likely get their turn as we approach Christmas.

[starsfan65]

Oz GFS run is different from the 18x run

[txtwister78]

Oz GFS run is different from the 18x run

Stick with Ensembles would be my advice this far out.

]

[Cpv17]

Oz GFS run is different from the 18x run

Stick with Ensembles would be my advice this far out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022120800/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_48.png ]

Dang that’s impressive for that far out.

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS is closer to yesterday's 12z, but not like the craziness compared to that run.

[Iceresistance]

Before we can get to the snow potential, we need to get past this first.

Day 5

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/day5prob-1.gif

Day 6

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/day6prob-2.gif

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1600821565582561281




 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1600811673430151170

[Cpv17]

6z GFS is closer to yesterday's 12z, but not like the craziness compared to that run.

That’s a nice snowpack to our north on the 6z GFS.

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1600821565582561281?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1600811673430151170?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

1983, really? Did he just go there? I think he’s trippin

I’m gonna need to see a lot more over the next few days before I’d compare anything to 1983 lol

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1600821565582561281?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1600811673430151170?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

1983, really? Did he just go there? I think he’s trippin

I’m gonna need to see a lot more over the next few days before I’d compare anything to 1983 lol

Upper levels look just like 1983. Doesn’t mean it will be that severe but it’s definitely an option from where we stand now.

Y’all get hung up on surface output way too far out.

[wxman57]

10-day EC is quite different from the GFS as far as 500mb pattern and surface temps. No cold in western Canada on Euro. GFS is trending away from a big ice storm. Cannot trust it that far out.

[Tireman4]

All I will commit to is it will be colder than this week we are in. The variables are certainly there. It will be an interesting couple of weeks to finish 2022. I would say, as Srain states, it does raise an eyebrow and a bear watch must be in place.

[wxman57]

Here's a comparison valid 10 days out. Euro has a quite progressive pattern with no cold air in the Northern Plains and western Canada (compared to GFS). Euro indicates mild temps with no frozen precip are all. It's all maritime-Pacific air across the U.S. I would tend to believe the Euro. Could be cooler than this week, but closer to normal temps. Possibly 70s across TX leading up to Christmas.

[CaptinCrunch]

Isn't it wonderful that we have the majority of the masses all on the same page. The cold is coming, it's locked in, and it's been a while that we have a very good potential for storm systems to track across the state with the cold in place.

I still feel the core of the cold will filter in around the 21st, and will setup shop probably through New Years. The background states are very favorable for not just this episode, but for continued episodes through January and into February. This very well could be one of the coldest winters as a whole in over a decade.

I hope everyone has their firewood stocked piled, and a propane tank or 2 ready, this winter could very well rival some of the record winters of the past, and it's about damn time.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Here's a comparison valid 10 days out. Euro has a quite progressive pattern with no cold air in the Northern Plains and western Canada (compared to GFS). Euro indicates mild temps with no frozen precip are all. It's all maritime-Pacific air across the U.S. I would tend to believe the Euro. Could be cooler than this week, but closer to normal temps. Possibly 70s across TX leading up to Christmas.

http://wxman57.com/images/10Day500mb.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/10DayTemps.JPG

Know how I know you’re trolling? You’re all alone forecasting warmth.

Ensembles look great for a much below end to the month. I’d make a bet with ya we don’t see 70s again until January.

[Iceresistance]

Here's a comparison valid 10 days out. Euro has a quite progressive pattern with no cold air in the Northern Plains and western Canada (compared to GFS). Euro indicates mild temps with no frozen precip are all. It's all maritime-Pacific air across the U.S. I would tend to believe the Euro. Could be cooler than this week, but closer to normal temps. Possibly 70s across TX leading up to Christmas.

http://wxman57.com/images/10Day500mb.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/10DayTemps.JPG

Know how I know you’re trolling? You’re all alone forecasting warmth.

Ensembles look great for a much below end to the month. I’d make a bet with ya we don’t see 70s again until January.

I think that he's hoping that the Ensembles will trend warmer later on, but the cold signals usually trend stronger, it's already very strong considering being 1-2 weeks out.