Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

End of 12z GFS is interesting, it's setting up the cold air to be launched towards here.

It's around my target time for the first BIG cold wave to come here (Mid to Late December).

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[Iceresistance]

HUGE Improvements on the Drought Monitor in Texas! What a nice way to start December!

[TarrantWx]

How does the upcoming -NAO episode compare to the one from December 2009 or February 2010? I remember -NAO was a big factor that Winter.

[Brent]

The apps are definitely cold here after Monday not even a high above 50 again

[Ntxw]

How does the upcoming -NAO episode compare to the one from December 2009 or February 2010? I remember -NAO was a big factor that Winter.

That was one of the most extreme/long lasting AO/NAO events on record. But none of it was bitterly cold, blocking slowed jet for the storms El Nino provided with the STJ. DFW had good snow events, but often quite marginal temps, reason why footer was a huge bust..slight change in profile and it would've been a lot of cold rain.

[Iceresistance]

How does the upcoming -NAO episode compare to the one from December 2009 or February 2010? I remember -NAO was a big factor that Winter.

That was one of the most extreme/long lasting AO/NAO events on record. But none of it was bitterly cold, blocking slowed jet for the storms El Nino provided with the STJ. DFW had good snow events, but often quite marginal temps, reason why footer was a huge bust..slight change in profile and it would've been a lot of cold rain.

No, not the 2009 Christmas Blizzard! I was in Springfield, MO when it happened!

[Edwards Limestone]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1598364601019731968

[ThunderSleetDreams]

An East Based Nina with a -SOI and the blocking up north, should be a good recipe for late December and early January around here with the MJO slowing in 7-8-1

[ThunderSleetDreams]

From Larry Cosgrove

Arctic Air oozes southward….

Using thermal satellite imagery and ground observations, you can make out the slow progress of bitter cold air that has built up above the Arctic Circle. The polar air mass (not as harsh as the cAk values) already occupies most of the lower 48 states. And it will not be too long before a "worst of winter" domain settles into the USA.

The placement of the brutal cold is critical at this time of year, if only for the reason that any oncoming storm in the southern branch will have opportunities to expand the snowpack into lower latitudes. And at some point later this month, that is likely to happen. The window for a higher-impact snow/ice event along and below 40 N Latitude appears to be between December 10 and 25. The retrogression of the blocking signature now entering Greenland will eventually interact with a +PNA styled thumb-projection ridge in the western third of North America. That would shift the core 500MB vortex into Ontario and Michigan, and enable a shortwave to dig into the Gulf Coast and come up along and off of the Eastern Seaboard. That is a good formula for a prominent frozen precipitation event. And maybe, just in time for Christmas!

[bubba hotep]

Looking at December analogs and an interesting batch jumps out - The Late 70s! Eps. if you roll those years forward. Many of the big -NAO Dec winters also saw winter wx in NTX in Jan/Feb, so it's a good sign for full winter.

[Quixotic]

If 76-77 and 77-78 start showing up in your analogs, that's a warm fuzzy feeling.

[Ntxw]

Looking at December analogs and an interesting batch jumps out - The Late 70s! Eps. if you roll those years forward. Many of the big -NAO Dec winters also saw winter wx in NTX in Jan/Feb, so it's a good sign for full winter.

I know the waiting right now is hard but it's a really good teleconnection set. Just think about what we could be facing in reverse. This is setting up to be a good wall to wall winter. I would be shocked if there were not several measurable snow opportunities.

3 out of the next 7 days above normal (rest near normal or close) is no way to run a 'mild' spell. Cloudy throughout.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think the location of the block is most important to watch far out. Lets not sweat the small details of the GFS. Like Ntx said, if the block is over the SE Canada region, the storms will HAVE to dip south with cold air and storminess. This is going to be a very interesting Dec.

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GFS gives me snow on December 11th!

[Texas Snowman]

Mention of 2009 above?!?

(Sniff, sniff, and wipe away a tear).

Wow, what memories that winter brings with a two-inch snowfall in Denison on Christmas Eve night and a White Christmas the next day!!!

Sign me up!

Edit: Oh the debate on this board leading up to that snow event along the Red River (over a foot in Cooke County NW of Gainesville) and the blizzard in Oklahoma. Mississippi Wx, where are you at?!?

[bubba hotep]

If 76-77 and 77-78 start showing up in your analogs, that's a warm fuzzy feeling.

Both rolled out in mine.

[harp]

Aaand…the end of the GFS has extreme SE Texas and south Louisiana in the …….mid to upper 70’s! That’s December 17th. I know it’s La La land, but sheesh!!!

[Iceresistance]

Aaand…the end of the GFS has extreme SE Texas and south Louisiana in the …….mid to upper 70’s! That’s December 17th. I know it’s La La land, but sheesh!!!

It might be further, but look at the 12z CFS on Pivotal Weather!

[harp]

Aaand…the end of the GFS has extreme SE Texas and south Louisiana in the …….mid to upper 70’s! That’s December 17th. I know it’s La La land, but sheesh!!!

It might be further, but look at the 12z CFS on Pivotal Weather!

Would you mind posting it?

[bubba hotep]