Texas Winter 2022-2023

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JayDT
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5521 Postby JayDT » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:24 am

Thundersleet in Duncanville :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5522 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:26 am

Ntxw wrote:
cstrunk wrote:Help us folks stuck at 34F out... This thread needs more pictures!


Reed Timmer still chasing and is driving through the heart of the metroplex.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPKop-UXU6E


Good thing that's not all freezing rain like RGEM had or he wouldn't be able to do that. Much easier to travel/get traction on. Be safe everyone. Things really begin to ramp up tonight into Wednesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5523 Postby opticsguy » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:27 am

The airports are a mess. I was supposed to fly to SF this morning and was rescheduled for this afternoon. I can't get out of my driveway.

Edit: Advisory 047. Average delay at DFW now 5 hours, 1 min.

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Last edited by opticsguy on Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5524 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:28 am

Just had a huge flash and then my dog about peed himself with the ground shaking thunder…coming down in downtown Dallas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5525 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:40 am

Latest Wrf temp forecast keeping a good chunk of North Texas between 26-28F thru Thursday morning…seems to be the most plausible scenario given current state of ground cover now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5526 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:41 am

Thundersleet for the 2nd day in a row
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5527 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:45 am

Back edge starting to move through so that’s about it for this round.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5528 Postby Texas Snow » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:47 am

Steve McCauley explains the snow with warm higher level temps

Okay...think I may have found the answer to the "how can it be snowing" question...and it is a bit embarrassing!

You know, we are taught how to determine what type of precipitation will be observed at the surface with any given atmospheric setup, and you learn a certain set of procedures that - in the vast majority of cases - leads you to the correct answer. And in so doing, you totally ignore the "exception" to the rule which occurs so infrequently, you don't even bother including it in your decision making process.

Well, I totally ignored the exception to the rule. Shame on me, minus 10 on the quiz.

You see, usually, you need temperatures down to around 14°F to form your typical snowflake in the atmosphere, and for us, that usually happens thousands of feet above the ground. But today, thousands of feet above the ground, the temperatures are well above freezing across north Texas.

But there is an unusual "snowflake" that looks like a needle instead of your typical hexagonal ice crystal. These needles only require temperatures of 23°F inside the cloud to form, and as you can see in this pic, that is precisely the kind of snowflakes we had. They look like little white elongated hairs.

So, we didn't have to go thousands of feet into the air to find our snow factory. It was only a few hundred feet above the ground.

How embarrassing, and shame on me for forgetting this simple little fact of cloud microphysics.

But still, the real trick is knowing WHEN to forecast such an event, because this doesn't happen every time a cloud drops to 23°F !
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5529 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:48 am

txtwister78 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
cstrunk wrote:Help us folks stuck at 34F out... This thread needs more pictures!


Reed Timmer still chasing and is driving through the heart of the metroplex.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPKop-UXU6E


Good thing that's not all freezing rain like RGEM had or he wouldn't be able to do that. Much easier to travel/get traction on. Be safe everyone. Things really begin to ramp up tonight into Wednesday.


Prefer sleet.

This whole event has me questioning algorithms on weather map sites. Even when it's sleeting they are showing freezing rain. I know raw model output doesn't discern colors, only raw data.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5530 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:51 am

We have snow mixed with sleet here in Dallas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5531 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:58 am

Ntxw wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Reed Timmer still chasing and is driving through the heart of the metroplex.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPKop-UXU6E


Good thing that's not all freezing rain like RGEM had or he wouldn't be able to do that. Much easier to travel/get traction on. Be safe everyone. Things really begin to ramp up tonight into Wednesday.


Prefer sleet.

This whole event has me questioning algorithms on weather map sites. Even when it's sleeting they are showing freezing rain. I know raw model output doesn't discern colors, only raw data.


Heck, even the WPC is clueless. They said it was freezing rain just a bit ago. And they are experts trained in this. So much we don’t know.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5532 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:01 am

I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5533 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:04 am

Easily 0.5-1"+ of sleet has fallen across the metroplex.

DFW Airport 26F Ice Pellets

0.33" qpf.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5534 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:05 am

Iceresistance wrote:I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.

No word yet on schools for tomorrow but it is only a matter of time. Parents should prepare for another kids day off Wednesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5535 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:05 am

gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.

No word yet on schools for tomorrow but it is only a matter of time. Parents should prepare for another kids day off Wednesday.

Well, mine (I'm in HS) are prepared to be off until at least Friday.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5536 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:06 am

gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.

No word yet on schools for tomorrow but it is only a matter of time. Parents should prepare for another kids day off Wednesday.


They won't go back until Friday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5537 Postby Tejas89 » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:07 am

So do we think tonight/tomorrow is going to be mostly sleet or freezing rain for DFW? Some local mets are still leaning to the latter despite the temp “bust” thus far.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5538 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:08 am

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I don't think my School will be in person until at least Friday, the roads are completely sleet covered.

No word yet on schools for tomorrow but it is only a matter of time. Parents should prepare for another kids day off Wednesday.


They won't go back until Friday.

Agree 100%.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5539 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:11 am

no icy roads on my commute into north SA from the hill country this morning...fine with me
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5540 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:12 am

Tejas89 wrote:So do we think tonight/tomorrow is going to be mostly sleet or freezing rain for DFW? Some local mets are still leaning to the latter despite the temp “bust” thus far.


NAM maps has been good so far on p-types. Sleet but transitioning to freezing rain. So after a nice sleet event, glaze it over with a sheet of ice.
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