Texas Winter 2022-2023

[cheezyWXguy]

Does the GFS have a dry bias or something?

Looks like it has to do with the 500mb pattern. Comparing the gfs to the cmc, the gfs shears out the system as it moves into Texas and builds high pressure over the western US, while the cmc keeps it much more intact with a more persistent trough over the western us. Result being that the cmc has a more prolonged event with better moisture return and flow of cold air than the gfs

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Holy moly, the Trough that will begin the winter weather in the Southern Plains has already trended stronger compared to 12z on the 18z GFS

Not seeing this at all. The low fell apart after swinging through California.

[Iceresistance]

Holy moly, the Trough that will begin the winter weather in the Southern Plains has already trended stronger compared to 12z on the 18z GFS

Not seeing this at all. The low fell apart after swinging through California.

I saw that.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

Does the GFS have a dry bias or something?

Looks like it has to do with the 500mb pattern. Comparing the gfs to the cmc, the gfs shears out the system as it moves into Texas and builds high pressure over the western US, while the cmc keeps it much more intact with a more persistent trough over the western us. Result being that the cmc has a more prolonged event with better moisture return and flow of cold air than the gfs

Which is always a threat to happen when a TPV slides into Eastern Canada.

[orangeblood]

Holy moly, the Trough that will begin the winter weather in the Southern Plains has already trended stronger compared to 12z on the 18z GFS

Not seeing this at all. The low fell apart after swinging through California.

I saw that.

The best news in this 18Z run is it finally sees the reinforcing 2nd front coming down mid week….that’s a very important piece of this puzzle when the ULL does finally eject out

[Ntxw]

You have two camps on Tuesday when there is some overrunning. Either the ICON/CMC near or sub-freezing that day near I-20 and north. Or you have the GFS and Euro which is upper 30s to near 40. If I were a betting man (we know how the OPs can do in Arctic air masses) I'd bet the GFS and Euro will lose.

We are also entering hi res guidance range for fronts like NAM and RGEM.

[Iceresistance]

Hot off the press from News 9, just a couple of minutes ago!


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-26-4.51.00-PM.png

[orangeblood]

You have two camps on Tuesday when there is some overrunning. Either the ICON/CMC near or sub-freezing that day near I-20 and north. Or you have the GFS and Euro which is upper 30s to near 40. If I were a betting man (we know how the OPs can do in Arctic air masses) I'd bet the GFS and Euro will lose.

We are also entering hi res guidance range for fronts like NAM and RGEM.

Yep, taking that bet all day every day when factoring in time of year, HP source, 500mb cross polar flow, snow pack from Kansas north, and bust history with GFS and Euro etc. Fairly easy bet IMHO!

[Ntxw]

You have two camps on Tuesday when there is some overrunning. Either the ICON/CMC near or sub-freezing that day near I-20 and north. Or you have the GFS and Euro which is upper 30s to near 40. If I were a betting man (we know how the OPs can do in Arctic air masses) I'd bet the GFS and Euro will lose.

We are also entering hi res guidance range for fronts like NAM and RGEM.

Yep, taking that bet all day every day when factoring in time of year, HP source, 500mb cross polar flow, snow pack from Kansas north, and bust history with GFS and Euro etc. Fairly easy bet IMHO!

I don't even pay attention much to the GFS or Euro temps anymore or take it seriously in these kind of situations, only the 500mb flow. It's comical really.

[bubba hotep]

You have two camps on Tuesday when there is some overrunning. Either the ICON/CMC near or sub-freezing that day near I-20 and north. Or you have the GFS and Euro which is upper 30s to near 40. If I were a betting man (we know how the OPs can do in Arctic air masses) I'd bet the GFS and Euro will lose.

We are also entering hi res guidance range for fronts like NAM and RGEM.

I would tend to agree, but I think we might see the best of the cold get shunted east with the TPV. So we might not see the typical shallow cold air mass that we would expect and it might be more of a modified air mass like the Euro/GFS? From a icing perspective, the good thing about the 12z ICON is that it warms DFW above freezing while precipitation is still falling, and that would probably melt most any ice.

ETA: 18z runs at 84hrs

[Iceresistance]

You have two camps on Tuesday when there is some overrunning. Either the ICON/CMC near or sub-freezing that day near I-20 and north. Or you have the GFS and Euro which is upper 30s to near 40. If I were a betting man (we know how the OPs can do in Arctic air masses) I'd bet the GFS and Euro will lose.

We are also entering hi res guidance range for fronts like NAM and RGEM.

I just noticed that the NAM has ice/sleet for Oklahoma Sunday Afternoon and into Monday, likely WAY TOO EARLY for it right now and the NAM is being the NAM.

[Ntxw]

You have two camps on Tuesday when there is some overrunning. Either the ICON/CMC near or sub-freezing that day near I-20 and north. Or you have the GFS and Euro which is upper 30s to near 40. If I were a betting man (we know how the OPs can do in Arctic air masses) I'd bet the GFS and Euro will lose.

We are also entering hi res guidance range for fronts like NAM and RGEM.

I would tend to agree, but I think we might see the best of the cold get shunted east with the TPV. So we might not see the typical shallow cold air mass that we would expect and it might be more of a modified air mass like the Euro/GFS? From a icing perspective, the good thing about the 12z ICON is that it warms DFW above freezing while precipitation is still falling, and that would probably melt most any ice.

I'm with you on the icing perspective. If it isn't going to snow it might as well just rain. But it is still a fairly cold air mass with decent HP system so history tells us they are likely too hung up on the upper flow even with the TPV.

[txtwister78]

Meanwhile the GEFS keeps trending colder early next week despite the operational struggles.

[Cerlin]

I’m excited to see the hi res models. I think this is a complicated setup for the globals as a lot of the forcing behind the precipitation will likely be better captured with a more high resolution spatial scale.

[rwfromkansas]

Is TPV trending too strong? We didn’t have this issue yesterday with the cold shunting east? Heck we had a good western trough that lasted awhile.

[Cpv17]

I’m excited to see the hi res models. I think this is a complicated setup for the globals as a lot of the forcing behind the precipitation will likely be better captured with a more high resolution spatial scale.

This is my thoughts as well!

[txtwister78]

Is TPV trending too strong? We didn’t have this issue yesterday with the cold shunting east? Heck we had a good western trough that lasted awhile.

Tuesday's system was all dynamics (atmospheric driven). ULL's (if they're cold enough) can generate their own pocket of colder air. That particular setup wasn't arctic in nature.

[Iceresistance]

Didn't see this earlier

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1618678781786607617

[Ntxw]

We're doing pretty good on snow cover front. Nebraska is just a glacier with all the snow they've gotten.