Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

GFS past 300 hours finally caving to the other models.

Pumping big ridge into Alaska and connecting with Greenland block. That would spell a cold Christmas week.

I think the dust is finally beginning to settle, but the MJO is in "null". It appears that it may be there for a while.

[txtwister78]

As others have mentioned before, it appears the target period to watch for cold is going to be from the middle of the month into Christmas week.

Euro ENS has that look.



As does CMC ENS

[Ntxw]

We're still waiting for the block to retrograde into Eastern Canada/Quebec/Newfoundland. That's when the bowling trough will be over the interior US. Just before the 15th the I-40 corridor probably has a storm threat as the trough begins to carve.

[Itryatgolf]

We're still waiting for the block to retrograde into Eastern Canada/Quebec/Newfoundland. That's when the bowling trough will be over the interior US. Just before the 15th the I-40 corridor probably has a storm threat as the trough begins to carve.

Ntxw, correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we want a +EAMT event to pump up the ridge in Alaska and get the -wpo going because a -nao usually benefits people east of us? An Aleutian ridge isn't helping us because it's too flat and not poleward

[Ntxw]

We're still waiting for the block to retrograde into Eastern Canada/Quebec/Newfoundland. That's when the bowling trough will be over the interior US. Just before the 15th the I-40 corridor probably has a storm threat as the trough begins to carve.

Ntxw, correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we want a +EAMT event to pump up the ridge in Alaska and get the -wpo going because a -nao usually benefits people east of us? An Aleutian ridge isn't helping us because it's too flat and not poleward

In a perfect world yes. But as I noted before you want -AO/-NAO consistently. That is the difference between a 2020-2021 La Nina winter with multiple snow chances and some cold dumps when the EPO/WPO eventually works out. Statistics show in La Nina without that -AO the winter as a whole is a torch.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I've never seen ensembles have anything as significant as the blocking its showing 2 weeks out. Usually it's a very low probability.

[Iceresistance]

I've never seen ensembles have anything as significant as the blocking its showing 2 weeks out. Usually it's a very low probability.

You know that this winter has serious potential when that shows up!

[TropicalTundra]

I think our best chance for some events is going to be mid-month/ before Christmas with the -NAO over Quebec and alaskan ridge allowing for cold to bleed down the plains (I could be wrong, sorry ). Some models look interesting for that time frame but right now there's still a lot of variability since it's still too far out. CFS has been going ham on 15th-17th and GFS has been showing on/off. For now it's a waiting game until next weekend/week IMO.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1599709772126703616

[Cpv17]

The 0z EPS looks pretty good. Still could improve but definitely looking much better compared to a few days ago.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’d take a 12/16 to 1/8 cold snap!

Cosgrove this morning….

When Arctic air interacts with the southern branch storm track.

I will admit that the numerical model runs of this past weekend gave me fits, especially the GFS series. The newly revised American model suite put on yet another "nothin' but warm" show, while the ECMWF and GGEM panels slowly turned back to colder solutions, starting in the medium range period. But when you size up the atmosphere around the Northern Hemisphere, it seems apparent that we will return to a mild West vs. cold Central/East alignment.

There are two key drivers to the evolving pattern in North America. One is the building and retrogression of a blocking ridge in Greenland, which looks to shift into Nunavut AR in the third week of this month. The ridge displaces the current Arctic cold pool and 500MB vortex, and forces the chill to stream into coverage to the right of the Continental Divide.

Another factor favoring a more wintry look to the lower 48 states is the southern branch jet stream. Aided by an energy/moisture input form the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and already nudging into the American Southwest, the subtropical wind field will contain disturbances that will wear down the heat ridge complex straddling the southern Gulf of Mexico. The initial impulse should bring heavy rain and thunderstorms in the near term in a belt close to Interstate 40 (Oklahoma City OK to Wilmington NC). But the second and third storms will be stronger, tap into colder air next week, and may yank the snow line further south into the Ohio Valley and middle/upper Appalachia by December 15.

If model projections of the ridge complex near the Arctic Circle verify, we may see another two storms riding the rim of a very cold air mass over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. between December16-25. The CFS platform suggests that this configuration will last until about January 8 2023, then give way to what looks to be a very impressive, ten to fourteen day "January Thaw".

[Iceresistance]

Quite a difference for December 13th on the 12z GFS compared to the other runs.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1599789077460824064

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Quite a difference for December 13th on the 12z GFS compared to the other runs.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif

Everything keeps correcting our way and getting colder.

I like that 540 line being in Texas and it’s not even the big blast.

[Ntxw]

Quite a difference for December 13th on the 12z GFS compared to the other runs.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif

Everything keeps correcting our way and getting colder.

I like that 540 line being in Texas and it’s not even the big blast.

-AO upper air mass showing up. Cold aloft more than the surface. Spells big storms. Eventually it will decimate the PV anomaly around the Hudson Bay and spill into the southern trofs.

[Iceresistance]

Might be in the Fantasy Range, but OOF!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh258-318.gif

[ThunderSleetDreams]

All the right Nat Gas advisers and traders are chirping now….

[Brent]

This would be something the idea of a wintry type storm mid month is definitely still realistic up here

[bubba hotep]

This would be something the idea of a wintry type storm mid month is definitely still realistic up here

https://i.ibb.co/Rz90848/gfs-asnow-scus-54-1.png

The GFS has been pretty consistent with a storm during that time range but, obviously, it keeps flipping around on the details. This was my fav run for this system lol

[Iceresistance]

Holy 12z Euro! It's even colder than the Canadian!

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1599857852427821056