Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

[wxman57]

Yep, here comes that SSW snow for D-FW! Wait, never mind. The cold air is locked in up north. Doesn't look like it wants to visit Texas. I see it's closer to the 240-hr time period when the disturbance passes. 00Z Canadian has a weak system passing on the 3-4 of March, too, but it only produces rain.

[orangeblood]

CFS showing a substantial cool down across a wide swath of the Northern Hemisphere for March/into April. Coincides nicely with the Strat Warm Event!! 30 Day Temp Anomalies starting 2nd week in March

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1628402004031676419

[Iceresistance]

It's only February, and why is the 0z Euro showing this?


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Uh-oh874f951bc07a694f.png

[wxman57]

It's only February, and why is the 0z Euro showing this?

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Uh-oh874f951bc07a694f.png
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Uh-oh874f951bc07a694f.png

Showing what? I see a Pacific cold front in the Panhadle with a few storms along it.

[Iceresistance]

It's only February, and why is the 0z Euro showing this?

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Uh-oh874f951bc07a694f.png
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Uh-oh874f951bc07a694f.png

Showing what? I see a Pacific cold front in the Panhadle with a few storms along it.

DIscrete Supercells in Central Oklahoma with the squall line in the Texas Panhandle.

[Ntxw]

Snow is back on the 12z GFS. These transitions to El Nino early Springs .

Daily SOI -17.

[Ntxw]

Snow is back on the 12z GFS. These transitions to El Nino early Springs .

Daily SOI -17.

Also some snow on the Canadian.

[rwfromkansas]

I hope it snows, just after yearbook deadline, which is around March 5th or so. I would take a spring break with some snow.

[Tireman4]

Snow is back on the 12z GFS. These transitions to El Nino early Springs .

Daily SOI -17.

Also some snow on the Canadian.

Were gonna win and he is not!! Ha ha!

[Iceresistance]

Snow is back on the 12z GFS. These transitions to El Nino early Springs .

Daily SOI -17.

We also have a -SOI streak! It was at -4 yesterday!

[Bhow]

Always baffles me how hard it is to get rain here in south central texas considering how close we are to the gulf of mexico.

[wxman57]

Snow is back on the 12z GFS. These transitions to El Nino early Springs .

Daily SOI -17.

Also some snow on the Canadian.

Were gonna win and he is not!! Ha ha!

Canadian has all snow north of the Red River. Nothing at all on the 12Z Euro. I really don't care if you get any snow up there or not, as long as the 80s remain for Houston. I wouldn't bank too much on the GFS, though.

[Iceresistance]

Always baffles me how hard it is to get rain here in south central texas considering how close we are to the gulf of mexico.

Unfavorable Pattern Flow?

[South Texas Storms]

Always baffles me how hard it is to get rain here in south central texas considering how close we are to the gulf of mexico.

Unfavorable Pattern Flow?

It's mainly due to the Mexican desert just to our west. If that wasn't there we would be much wetter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Always baffles me how hard it is to get rain here in south central texas considering how close we are to the gulf of mexico.

During a decent El nino year, in the summer, you should have decent afternoon thunderstorms stream in from the gulf. Lots more moisture in the upper levels.

[Bhow]

Always baffles me how hard it is to get rain here in south central texas considering how close we are to the gulf of mexico.

Unfavorable Pattern Flow?

It's mainly due to the Mexican desert just to our west. If that wasn't there we would be much wetter.

Still have a lot to learn obviously but in all of these recent systems the storms always blow up east of us although dew points are always 60+ so seems there’s plenty of moisture.

[South Texas Storms]

Unfavorable Pattern Flow?

It's mainly due to the Mexican desert just to our west. If that wasn't there we would be much wetter.

Still have a lot to learn obviously but in all of these recent systems the storms always blow up east of us although dew points are always 60+ so seems there’s plenty of moisture.

Yeah these storm systems haven't been digging far enough south. Not enough lift to overcome the capping inversion. Moisture is rarely an issue here. A lack of lift is the primary problem for us.

[Bhow]

It's mainly due to the Mexican desert just to our west. If that wasn't there we would be much wetter.

Still have a lot to learn obviously but in all of these recent systems the storms always blow up east of us although dew points are always 60+ so seems there’s plenty of moisture.

Yeah these storm systems haven't been digging far enough south. Not enough lift to overcome the capping inversion. Moisture is rarely an issue here. A lack of lift is the primary problem for us.

So why aren’t those systems too far north for areas further east but on the same longitude? Those storms always cut northeast so if there’s not enough lift here you would think there’s even less lift in the southeast as the low lifts further north.