Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txtwister78]

That setup is incredible on the GFS. Oh boy. Going to be a wild week on the forums.
How did the CMC handle temps for Feb ‘21? The GFS is not doing well, currently.

Also, I will be driving from my current home in Denver to Galveston on Friday to visit my mom and go hunting till the 22nd. Whatever happens down there, I’ll be experiencing with you guys.

The CMC did well, but had some issues with it's cold bias with way too temperatures and also had a somewhat dry tendency on the moisture.

Well considering the setup/pattern, I would say the "cold bias" then had merit when you factor in the actual event itself (Feb 2021). I think it's important though not to get too caught up in specific comparisons (analog years) because those are the extreme events however when a pattern looks the part 8-10 days out, you certainly have to factor that in with what some of the outputs show.

All the models are showing signs of some big arctic air entering the pattern at some point. The question becomes when does it arrive (in phases or altogether) in my opinion.

[txtwister78]

Euro Control goes off the rails again. ENS also very cold.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro Control goes off the rails again. ENS also very cold.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670673600/1671732000-2J56cqMOXE8.png

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile cold front has come through DFW. That should be it for anything 70+ for a long time. Tuesday has a small outside chance before big front.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1601581248509579264

[Iceresistance]

The possible Blizzard that is coming to the Northern Plains may create a strong snowpack will not allow the cold air to moderate easily when it comes here.

[Cpv17]

The CPC is still being conservative. They must not be completely sold yet.

[Brent]

The CPC is still being conservative. They must not be completely sold yet.

When aren't they conservative?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The CPC is still being conservative. They must not be completely sold yet.

They don’t go 100% 10 days out for south of 40N regardless of what is showing.

[Cpv17]

The CPC is still being conservative. They must not be completely sold yet.

When aren't they conservative?

By now I would’ve expected them to have broken out their darkest colors and be more expansive. But ehhh whatever no big deal.

[Brent]

The CPC is still being conservative. They must not be completely sold yet.

They don’t go 100% 10 days out for south of 40N regardless of what is showing.

Yeah to be totally fair most of it is still beyond 7 days and the peak definitely more 10-15. I mean even here at day 7 it's cold but nothing extreme yet

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Reading through the old thread, it appears the GFS didnt catch onto temps till Feb 8th. Icon was first on temps.

[txtwister78]

Not to sound like a broken record here and as mentioned in previous post by others in regard to the GFS MJO conundrum, this is an example of why everyone should flush the OP for now. Current 18z run vs the previous 12z output for temp difference/change for the same time period. Lol. Enough said

[Iceresistance]

This is a terrifying Storm Complex to the West on the 18z GFS


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

[txtwister78]

This is a terrifying Storm Complex to the West on the 18z GFS

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

Yeah you'd have more luck hitting the powerball numbers than for that to verify right now on the OP Ice...just saying.

[Iceresistance]

This is a terrifying Storm Complex to the West on the 18z GFS

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

Yeah you'd have more luck hitting the powerball numbers than for that to verify right now on the OP Ice...just saying.

I know, but that also features the trough that is around 1/2 of the size of the CONUS, Popcorn (Chicken) purposes, but my goodness the GFS has gone insane.

[Iceresistance]

Here we go! It's Snow Miser vs Heat Miser on the models! And those two are really going at work!



Link: https://youtu.be/3e1SQmt9WtQ

[wxman57]

Here we go! It's Snow Miser vs Heat Miser on the models! And those two are really going at work!

https://youtu.be/3e1SQmt9WtQ

I'm mister 101F... I wouldn't get too excited about anything until if and when there is any cold air up north. There's none now.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
636 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2022

Areas affected...portions of Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102335Z - 110535Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across Southeast TX are
showing an increasing training signature in and around Conroe.
Hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts of 3-5" are possible
through 06z.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in
intensity and coverage as of late west and north of Houston, along
an outflow boundary/convergence axis which is noted in the thermal
pattern and wind observations across southeast TX and southern LA.
Divergence aloft has been sponsored by an upper level shortwave
moving across western TX. More organized activity is moving more
eastward, occasionally colliding with less organized activity
moving more northeast, which is amping up the hourly rain totals.
Precipitable water values are 1.3-1.75" in this region per GPS
data. Inflow at 850 hPa is ~20 kts from the southwest based on
the KPOE and KHGX VAD wind profiles. ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
exists, per SPC mesoanalyses, with the heart of the instability
pool showing 72-73F dew points. Effective bulk shear of 40 kts is
leading to more organized convective structures normally seen in
HP/high precipitation environments.

As a polar front comes in from the north and the upper level
shortwave approaches from the west, the areal extent of the heavy
rainfall should increase overnight as low-level convergence
increases further. The concern is that training and merging
convection would be capable of hourly rain totals up to 2" or so
with local amounts of 3-5" per the current mesoscale guidance.
While the region has been dry, this degree of rainfall would be
problematic in any urban environments it would occur within.
Thus, flash flooding is expected to be isolated at first but could
become widely scattered towards 06z, particularly if the high end
guidance (HRRR and NAM CONEST) come to pass.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31279392 30439409 30159510 29769665 29809715
30629702 31149596

[Ntxw]

DFW has cashed in 0.77" so far still raining. Lets hope our qpf luck of the past few months continues when we get the cold air here!