Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1620531314658263040

[WinterMax]

How long until the Ice SW is expanded?

Considering the FW office is chasing temps and always 2-3 Deg F behind, probably during overnight shift! Way too reliant on computer forecasting these days....

Been tracking the WRF models handling of temps, it seems to have the best grasp within Texas. Here are its temp at 6pm tomorrow

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-arw-conus/tx/t2m_f/1675166400/1675296000-BLtafRXepD4.png

HRRR at same time
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t2m_f/1675188000/1675296000-IQFLz64umeA.png

Just this slight difference will make a big difference with Ice accretion

I remember last week when you said this is a sure thing, a few here were doubting this storm due to GFS/Euro modeling, I gotta say you nailed it. Props !

[Ralph's Weather]

How long until the Ice SW is expanded?

Considering the FW office is chasing temps and always 2-3 Deg F behind, probably during overnight shift! Way too reliant on computer forecasting these days....

Been tracking the WRF models handling of temps, it seems to have the best grasp. Here are its temp at 6pm tomorrow

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-arw-conus/tx/t2m_f/1675166400/1675296000-BLtafRXepD4.png

HRRR at same time
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t2m_f/1675188000/1675296000-IQFLz64umeA.png

Just this slight difference will make a big difference with Ice accretion

The eastern zones are also the more impactful ones too. The amount of big, heavy trees from west to east is noticeable if you ever drive across the DFW metro.

I will keep harping on the area from Terrell to Tyler being a primary target for big icing tomorrow. Roads would be borderline with temps in the 30 to 32 range but trees on powerlines will be huge concern. With somewhat minor accumulations today there has already been many reports of downed big branches and even full trees.

[orangeblood]

How long until the Ice SW is expanded?

Considering the FW office is chasing temps and always 2-3 Deg F behind, probably during overnight shift! Way too reliant on computer forecasting these days....

Been tracking the WRF models handling of temps, it seems to have the best grasp within Texas. Here are its temp at 6pm tomorrow

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-arw-conus/tx/t2m_f/1675166400/1675296000-BLtafRXepD4.png

HRRR at same time
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t2m_f/1675188000/1675296000-IQFLz64umeA.png

Just this slight difference will make a big difference with Ice accretion

If it’s still 26 it might be all sleet In the areas they just placed under ice storm warning.

Possibly but here are the projected 850 temps, much warmer than this mornings 1-3 Deg C! There appears to be a pocket of warmer/Pacific Tropical air being brought up with this batch tomorrow

[Ralph's Weather]

Considering the FW office is chasing temps and always 2-3 Deg F behind, probably during overnight shift! Way too reliant on computer forecasting these days....

Been tracking the WRF models handling of temps, it seems to have the best grasp within Texas. Here are its temp at 6pm tomorrow

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-arw-conus/tx/t2m_f/1675166400/1675296000-BLtafRXepD4.png

HRRR at same time
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t2m_f/1675188000/1675296000-IQFLz64umeA.png

Just this slight difference will make a big difference with Ice accretion

If it’s still 26 it might be all sleet In the areas they just placed under ice storm warning.

Possibly but here are the projected 850 temps, much warmer than this morning!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t850/1675188000/1675281600-2BS9oYJwLbI.png

We managed a good sleet shower at 32 surface today.

[GeauxTigers]

How long until the Ice SW is expanded?

Considering the FW office is chasing temps and always 2-3 Deg F behind, probably during overnight shift! Way too reliant on computer forecasting these days....

Been tracking the WRF models handling of temps, it seems to have the best grasp within Texas. Here are its temp at 6pm tomorrow

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-arw-conus/tx/t2m_f/1675166400/1675296000-BLtafRXepD4.png




HRRR at same time
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t2m_f/1675188000/1675296000-IQFLz64umeA.png


Just this slight difference will make a big difference with Ice accretion

I’m right on the Denton county and Grayson county line and really surprised the NWS didn’t include Cooke & Grayson county in ice storm warning.

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1620532552795570179

[Gotwood]

Considering the FW office is chasing temps and always 2-3 Deg F behind, probably during overnight shift! Way too reliant on computer forecasting these days....

Been tracking the WRF models handling of temps, it seems to have the best grasp within Texas. Here are its temp at 6pm tomorrow

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ncep-wrf-arw-conus/tx/t2m_f/1675166400/1675296000-BLtafRXepD4.png

HRRR at same time
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t2m_f/1675188000/1675296000-IQFLz64umeA.png

Just this slight difference will make a big difference with Ice accretion

If it’s still 26 it might be all sleet In the areas they just placed under ice storm warning.

Possibly but here are the projected 850 temps, much warmer than this mornings 1-3 Deg C! There appears to be a pocket of warmer/Pacific Tropical air being brought up with this batch tomorrow

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t850/1675188000/1675281600-2BS9oYJwLbI.png

Well I hope those models are wrong nobody has time for that much freezing rain.

[iorange55]

Don't live in Texas anymore, but have been checking in on these threads because I'm a nerd.

But geez, if tomorrow's predominant precip type is freezing rain, that's going to be one huge ice storm. Looking at past ice storms across the nation, it seems to be .50+ is that magic number when things go really south. If the swath of ice is really as large as expected... yikes. It could be one people talk about for a long time.

Hope it's mainly sleet though. Models haven't exactly been handling things well. They can be wrong again!

[Ntxw]

2020s we've seen it all. This would be the 4th major winter wx event for DFW (Feb 2021, the two last year in Feb, and this one). December cold snap was no slouch either.

Just need a major snow storm to wrap it up.

[iorange55]

Evan Andrews posted this update on Facebook:

Tonight looks relatively quiet. Relative to this morning though. It's still in the mid 20s (26-27) most areas. Won't go down. Might go up a degree tonight. While we can't rule out some very light freezing rain this evening, the tendency will be to have "not much" overnight. That said, any drizzle and 20s will make untreated roads slick and could freeze over slush. Be careful.
Tomorrow. We do have another good SLUG of moisture heading in. Looks to be a bit later than today...more towards mid to late morning. INITIALLY it will be ICY RAIN. However, during the day temps will inch toward 32 in Dallas (and east) ...but stay more 29-30 in FTW and west. Hence the NWS Ice Storm Warning from Tarrant and Denton west. We haven't had much ice on trees/power lines so far...so this is "borderline", but better to err on the side of caution.
From Dallas east it will gradually become more liquid (rain) as we get into PM-eve and stay 32-33 overnight. I have less concern for anyone from I-35E and east.

He's thinking temps reach freezing and above in Dallas by tomorrow afternoon... hmmm.

[Ntxw]

So FW is forecasting 51F for DFW Friday. RGEM says 37-40F. NAM is 37-42F.

GFS 41-45, Euro about 50F.

???

[rwfromkansas]

Evan Andrews posted this update on Facebook:

Tonight looks relatively quiet. Relative to this morning though. It's still in the mid 20s (26-27) most areas. Won't go down. Might go up a degree tonight. While we can't rule out some very light freezing rain this evening, the tendency will be to have "not much" overnight. That said, any drizzle and 20s will make untreated roads slick and could freeze over slush. Be careful.
Tomorrow. We do have another good SLUG of moisture heading in. Looks to be a bit later than today...more towards mid to late morning. INITIALLY it will be ICY RAIN. However, during the day temps will inch toward 32 in Dallas (and east) ...but stay more 29-30 in FTW and west. Hence the NWS Ice Storm Warning from Tarrant and Denton west. We haven't had much ice on trees/power lines so far...so this is "borderline", but better to err on the side of caution.
From Dallas east it will gradually become more liquid (rain) as we get into PM-eve and stay 32-33 overnight. I have less concern for anyone from I-35E and east.

He's thinking temps reach freezing and above in Dallas by tomorrow afternoon... hmmm.

Seems to be similar to the NAM idea of warming things up tomorrow afternoon Dallas on east, but I'm skeptical.

[Gotwood]

Evan Andrews posted this update on Facebook:

Tonight looks relatively quiet. Relative to this morning though. It's still in the mid 20s (26-27) most areas. Won't go down. Might go up a degree tonight. While we can't rule out some very light freezing rain this evening, the tendency will be to have "not much" overnight. That said, any drizzle and 20s will make untreated roads slick and could freeze over slush. Be careful.
Tomorrow. We do have another good SLUG of moisture heading in. Looks to be a bit later than today...more towards mid to late morning. INITIALLY it will be ICY RAIN. However, during the day temps will inch toward 32 in Dallas (and east) ...but stay more 29-30 in FTW and west. Hence the NWS Ice Storm Warning from Tarrant and Denton west. We haven't had much ice on trees/power lines so far...so this is "borderline", but better to err on the side of caution.
From Dallas east it will gradually become more liquid (rain) as we get into PM-eve and stay 32-33 overnight. I have less concern for anyone from I-35E and east.

He's thinking temps reach freezing and above in Dallas by tomorrow afternoon... hmmm.

Seems to be similar to the NAM idea of warming things up tomorrow afternoon Dallas on east, but I'm skeptical.

I am very skeptical. I highly doubt it “warms” up after sundown.

[bubba hotep]

21z HRRR for tomorrow morning is a degree or so colder vs. the 18z run. Also, the Euro EPS (which has a warm bias) has a high for DFW at 31F tomorrow. There are some dynamic reasons why temps will warm tomorrow and tomorrow night, but in many areas, the damage may already be done by the time temps reach freezing.

[opticsguy]

Evan Andrews posted this update on Facebook:

Tonight looks relatively quiet. Relative to this morning though. It's still in the mid 20s (26-27) most areas. Won't go down. Might go up a degree tonight. While we can't rule out some very light freezing rain this evening, the tendency will be to have "not much" overnight. That said, any drizzle and 20s will make untreated roads slick and could freeze over slush. Be careful.
Tomorrow. We do have another good SLUG of moisture heading in. Looks to be a bit later than today...more towards mid to late morning. INITIALLY it will be ICY RAIN. However, during the day temps will inch toward 32 in Dallas (and east) ...but stay more 29-30 in FTW and west. Hence the NWS Ice Storm Warning from Tarrant and Denton west. We haven't had much ice on trees/power lines so far...so this is "borderline", but better to err on the side of caution.
From Dallas east it will gradually become more liquid (rain) as we get into PM-eve and stay 32-33 overnight. I have less concern for anyone from I-35E and east.

He's thinking temps reach freezing and above in Dallas by tomorrow afternoon... hmmm.

Seems to be similar to the NAM idea of warming things up tomorrow afternoon Dallas on east, but I'm skeptical.

The 18Z NAM is still 2-3 degrees warmer at DFW than observed

[Gotwood]

Looks like east Texas (Tyler, Sulpher Springs) is taking the brunt of the power outages right now.

[Ghost0321]

DFW will be lucky to reach 30 deg tomorrow, especially with this much ice and sleet already on the ground.

[txtwister78]

At least for now, HRRR and RAP models are pretty well aligned with where guidance feels the focus will be overnight into early/mid afternoon for frozen precipitation.

[Gotwood]

At least for now, HRRR and RAP models are pretty well aligned with where guidance feels the focus will be overnight into early/mid afternoon for frozen precipitation.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2023013121/027/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675198800/1675263600-dfRDJWXd5j8.png

Where is the NWS getting their guidance for issuing the ice storm warnings? According to most models I don’t see what they see.