Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

At least for now, HRRR and RAP models are pretty well aligned with where guidance feels the focus will be overnight into early/mid afternoon for frozen precipitation.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2023013121/027/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675198800/1675263600-dfRDJWXd5j8.png

The rest of that RAP run... things could go off the rails in DFW

[DallasAg]

Good morning Metroplex.

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1620424680497876994

Daily snowfall record for DFW for 1/31 is 1.2" in 1985 (start of a 2 day storm which began with sleet IIRC). Maybe DFW cashes in today and we make a run at it?

Last official 1" or more measurement in January...2003.

Officially 1.3" for the day. Daily record and ended the 20 year streak of <1" of daily January snowfall. Well done!

[txtwister78]

At least for now, HRRR and RAP models are pretty well aligned with where guidance feels the focus will be overnight into early/mid afternoon for frozen precipitation.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2023013121/027/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675198800/1675263600-dfRDJWXd5j8.png

Where is the NWS getting their guidance for issuing the ice storm warnings? According to most models I don’t see what they see.

Main focus/time period for DFW is going to be tomorrow afternoon into evening when ULL begins to eject out. Most guidance does boost temps a few degrees by then from where they stand now (27-28 to 30-32), but not sure if things get above freezing at that point. Have to watch trends with these models though. They can change and a few degrees either way makes a big difference in the overall outcome/amounts.

[DallasAg]

Daily snowfall record for DFW for 1/31 is 1.2" in 1985 (start of a 2 day storm which began with sleet IIRC). Maybe DFW cashes in today and we make a run at it?

Last official 1" or more measurement in January...2003.

Officially 1.3" for the day. Daily record and ended the 20 year streak of <1" of daily January snowfall. Well done!

And will finish with 8th warmest January at DFW. 8 days ago we were holding at #1 warmest by a decent margin.

[Ntxw]

Daily snowfall record for DFW for 1/31 is 1.2" in 1985 (start of a 2 day storm which began with sleet IIRC). Maybe DFW cashes in today and we make a run at it?

Last official 1" or more measurement in January...2003.

Officially 1.3" for the day. Daily record and ended the 20 year streak of <1" of daily January snowfall. Well done!

1.3" of sleet is impressive! Streak broken.

[cstrunk]

Temp still slowly dropping at my house. 32.4F. Just about the coldest rain you can get without issues.

[txtwister78]

Daily snowfall record for DFW for 1/31 is 1.2" in 1985 (start of a 2 day storm which began with sleet IIRC). Maybe DFW cashes in today and we make a run at it?

Last official 1" or more measurement in January...2003.

Officially 1.3" for the day. Daily record and ended the 20 year streak of <1" of daily January snowfall. Well done!

Yeah they count sleet on the ground as snow per that tweet even though it certainly looked like snow today. Pretty cool.

[CaptinCrunch]

At least for now, HRRR and RAP models are pretty well aligned with where guidance feels the focus will be overnight into early/mid afternoon for frozen precipitation.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2023013121/027/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675198800/1675263600-dfRDJWXd5j8.png

Where is the NWS getting their guidance for issuing the ice storm warnings? According to most models I don’t see what they see.

Main focus/time period for DFW is going to be tomorrow afternoon into evening when ULL begins to eject out. Most guidance does boost temps a few degrees by then from where they stand now (27-28 to 30-32), but not sure if things get above freezing at that point. Have to watch trends with these models though. They can change and a few degrees either way makes a big difference in the overall outcome/amounts.

Sorry, but I'm not going with guidance because the frozen ground cover will hold temps a few degrees below guidance. Don't see a above freezing temp till mid-day Thursday, and even then it's going to depend on how much frz precip covers the ground. The weekend is looking good though

[dpep4]

https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1620532552795570179?s=20&t=_SyaFqzFKUNnNORcyJjXGg

Nitpicking, but actually, if the Aust-SA NWS has a good handle on temps now (and they have so far today), Houston to San Antonio should be fine tomorrow afternoon. Supposed to get above freezing by mid-morning for SA-Seguin-Flatonia and stay above/rise Wed nite, while Columbus may not freeze tonight.

Of course I'd still check the actual temps and trends along the route tomorrow before committing to leave.

[TropicalTundra]

Family in Killeen telling me they’re getting thundersleet. Dry as a bone here and no sleet. I will report if I get any

[orangeblood]

I-30 between Rockwall and Sulphur Springs looks like a ice skating rink according to traffic reports

[Ntxw]

Took a nice walk through the crisp sleet. Cold without wind is lovely! Calm, serene, and the air isn't nippy.

[Texas Snow]

Took a nice walk through the crisp sleet. Cold without wind is lovely! Calm, serene, and the air isn't nippy.

Took a 30 minute walk after it stopped this morning and it was still loose and actually kind of felt like walking in the snow. Just took another walk before dinner and it’s already much harder and packed together.

[Ntxw]

Took a nice walk through the crisp sleet. Cold without wind is lovely! Calm, serene, and the air isn't nippy.

Took a 30 minute walk after it stopped this morning and it was still loose and actually kind of felt like walking in the snow. Just took another walk before dinner and it’s already much harder and packed together.

Yep it's packed for sure. It'll be tough to melt, not considering the glaze of ice that will rest over it soon.

[TropicalTundra]

SLEETING! Falling pretty heavy

[Iceresistance]

ISW for Denton and Fort Worth

[Ntwrkperk]

Hey Guys, Long time lurker here making my first post. I am located over here in West Monroe Louisiana eyeballing my chances if the freezing line can sneak its' way south into my area tonight. I figured I would finally get on here and say hello to you all. I have been enjoying reading you guys post for years and have really learned a lot. When it comes to winter weather and my chances here, I have always turned to you guys first. I have seen Weather Man 57 change his personality many times with his avatar throughout the years and was on here lurking back when some dude use to make all his post in CAPS... haha Some of you may remember that. Anyway with my introduction out of the way now, does anyone have a good link to where I can see the freezing temperature line in real time? One where I can zoom up on real close for my location?

Thanks again guys and congrats on your WX Win in TX. Stay safe out there.

Shane P

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/Fox4Weather/status/1620572375656923137

[bubba hotep]

00z runs will start rolling out in about an hour, but the 23z HRRR is a bit colder and, more importantly, brings in precipitation much sooner to DFW than 18z.



vs 18z

[EnnisTx]

ISW for Denton and Fort Worth

You’re about 4 1/2 hours late. Issued in the 2 o’clock hour. You must have taken a nap.