Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

Looks like SPC dropped the SVR weather for NTX and Oklahoma and and going fir east of DFW now. What changed?

Setup may have become more unfavorable for Next Monday, but Next Tuesday

It’s almost in the same spot as the last outbreak.

[CaptinCrunch]

We need the perfect cold 25-30 and lots of moisture. That is what we want, bring the snow with a 10/1 ratio.

I remember 1983 very well here in DFW, schools and non essentialn business closed for a week to conserve natural gas usage. 192 consecutive hours @ or below 32 had pipes popping all over the place. I remember our living room windows (old metal frame kind) having ice on the inside of the house. Dad had heat lamps on under the hood of his truck so it would crank to go to work every day.

[Cpv17]

Did other cold snaps have have way above average temperatures like we’re experiencing now? If so (which I’m pretty sure they did), then this adds even more meat to the bone.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Did other cold snaps have have way above average temperatures like we’re experiencing now? If so (which I’m pretty sure they did), then this adds even more meat to the bone.

1983 and 1989 certainly did. I’m struggling with 2021. I am not in a position to look, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Still a ways to go, but I’d take 40s for highs the 7 days leading up to Christmas like what most of the output is showing right now for Montgomery and Colorado Counties.

I’d like to see it trend ~10 degrees colder with highs in the 30s across that time period. 40s is perfect running weather, for me, though.

I don’t run outside when it’s humid and nasty like it is now.

[orangeblood]

Did other cold snaps have have way above average temperatures like we’re experiencing now? If so (which I’m pretty sure they did), then this adds even more meat to the bone.

1983 and 1989 certainly did. I’m struggling with 2021. I am not in a position to look, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

Here were the first several days of Dec 1983 before the Severe Outbreak….as you can see, not too anomalously cold and Alaska was warm.

[wxman57]

I'm liking what I'm seeing in the latest model runs. GFS has given up on the extreme cold in favor of seasonable temps. Gone are the -30F temps in Montana, replaced by -5F temps. Perhaps a light freeze or two prior to Christmas for the D-FW area. None down here in Houston. Upper-air pattern is not "right" for major cold down here over the next couple of weeks. Best to keep the excitement about major cold under wraps. As with the outbreak in 2021 and last winter, I'll shout out "cold is coming" when I really see it. For now, I don't see it. Unfortunately, this week's beautiful Christmas weather with lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s won't last much longer.

[orangeblood]

I'm liking what I'm seeing in the latest model runs. GFS has given up on the extreme cold in favor of seasonable temps. Gone are the -30F temps in Montana, replaced by -5F temps. Perhaps a light freeze or two prior to Christmas for the D-FW area. None down here in Houston. Upper-air pattern is not "right" for major cold down here over the next couple of weeks. Best to keep the excitement about major cold under wraps. As with the outbreak in 2021 and last winter, I'll shout out "cold is coming" when I really see it. For now, I don't see it. Unfortunately, this week's beautiful Christmas weather with lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s won't last much longer.

Regarding the Upper Level Pattern being not “right”, if you don’t mind what isn’t right about this 500 mb look. Looks primed for significant US cold week 2 IMO

[harp]

Read Larry Cosgrove’s latest Facebook post released 10 minutes ago…..

[HockeyTx82]

Read Larry Cosgrove’s latest Facebook post released 10 minutes ago…..

Can you copy the post here?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm liking what I'm seeing in the latest model runs. GFS has given up on the extreme cold in favor of seasonable temps. Gone are the -30F temps in Montana, replaced by -5F temps. Perhaps a light freeze or two prior to Christmas for the D-FW area. None down here in Houston. Upper-air pattern is not "right" for major cold down here over the next couple of weeks. Best to keep the excitement about major cold under wraps. As with the outbreak in 2021 and last winter, I'll shout out "cold is coming" when I really see it. For now, I don't see it. Unfortunately, this week's beautiful Christmas weather with lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s won't last much longer.

Regarding the Upper Level Pattern being not “right”, if you don’t mind what isn’t right about this 500 mb look. Looks primed for significant US cold week 2 IMO

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1670565600/1671580800-uNanIdqzvRk.png

Thank you for posting that, because while I immensely respect wxman57 and his knowledge, I do not see what he’s talking about across all models, and I’m not a Spring chicken. I trust him far more on the Tropics than Winter Wx


We are about to be locked into a multi week below average pattern. Yes, the million dollar question is how cold, but you can’t look at the blocking and say “seasonal”. I guess if seasonal is 10 below normal, then I could buy it. But that’s the warm end.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I pulled it from LinkedIn

With the holiday season in place, we need to look at the prospect of colder weather and winter storms.

By now, most model guidance is in agreement that a long period of very cold weather will arrive next weekend and probably stay through the first week of 2023. Many have questions regarding the strength of incoming cold, and the character of weather around North America after its arrival.

What makes some nervous in Texas is the potential for another "Dam Break" or "Blue Norther" that would completely scour out the current mild air and in the process bring energy and transportation problems. 1 in 3 model solutions say this is possible. We know that parts of the Intermountain Region, Great Plains and Upper Midwest are going to be visited by extreme winter weather; the forecast schemes are in nearly complete agreement on that scenario. But getting a classic "sudden drain" of cold with wind, ice and snow in the Lone Star State will only occur if a storm takes shape off of the Gulf Coast around December 17.

The energy for that storm would come from a now-diffuse disturbed area over the central Pacific Basin. Energy from that system is in place across Mexico and California. CAISO districts may be hit quite hard by precipitation, wind and unusual cold during the medium range. Due to a vast blocking signature stretching from Alaska to Greenland, this low pressure will not be able to recurve to the north like its predecessor early next week. Redevelopment off of the Gulf Coast would activate cold air drainage, and might create a chance for frozen precipitation in lower latitudes. This situation makes the 11-15 day forecast period very interesting!

On that note, have a great weekend!

[harp]

Read Larry Cosgrove’s latest Facebook post released 10 minutes ago…..

Can you copy the post here?

I wish I could, but I’m a Boomer and not that tech savvy. I’m sure someone will.

[Cpv17]

So if I’m reading this right, our only shot at cold is dependent upon a Gulf coast low that may or may not develop?

[harp]

So if I’m reading this right, our only shot at cold is dependent upon a Gulf coast low that may or may not develop?

He seems to think the cold is coming. Whether or not it moisture laden remains to be seen. That’s what I’m interpreting.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So if I’m reading this right, our only shot at cold is dependent upon a Gulf coast low that may or may not develop?

No, he’s saying if you are cheering for the extreme, bottom falls out solution, that would need to happen.

Otherwise, we are going to step down.

[DallasAg]

We need the perfect cold 25-30 and lots of moisture. That is what we want, bring the snow with a 10/1 ratio.

I remember 1983 very well here in DFW, schools and non essentialn business closed for a week to conserve natural gas usage. 192 consecutive hours @ or below 32 had pipes popping all over the place. I remember our living room windows (old metal frame kind) having ice on the inside of the house. Dad had heat lamps on under the hood of his truck so it would crank to go to work every day.

I was growing up in Plano for the big 1983 freeze. I recall the Friday before it started (12/16) we got a surprise snow - 2-3" across most of DFW. Not enough to close schools, but it was the last day of school before Christmas break, so it made it even more fun.

A couple of times during the event we were PROMISED an epic winter storm by all of the local mets. First one was supposed to have been on Day 1 of the chill (Sunday 12/18) and another one shortly after Christmas. Neither time did anything materialize other than some snow flurries and freezing drizzle. We had a decent freezing drizzle event Tuesday or Wednesday (12/20-12/21) which coated everything in ice, and it stuck around for a couple of days before it sublimated. Other than that it seemed like it was just day after day of cloudy with a few snow flurries or snow grains. Our pool froze over and we skated on it Christmas morning.

Overall it was a lot of "what could've been" it seemed. Plenty of cold but really no significant weather.

Of course in the spring we had to replace most of our landscaping that got torched by the cold. Sound familiar?

[harp]

Remember, we don’t need teens and 20’s for snow/sleet. 28-33 works just fine if the upper air cooperates.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1601218312418971648




 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1601135462831181825




 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1601169985766031360

[Ntxw]

CIPS analogs group. Historical analogs suggest the Plains and Rockies will be the focal point for the cold the rest of the month. Nothing new here, just another piece to back up that it will be an extended period of cold.

Used this during the Feb 2021 event when models were dumping cold to the east early or west late but eventually it did exactly what the analogs suggest, right down the middle back then.