Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Edwards Limestone]

Is wxman just trolling us a little? He seems to be alone in here vs. our other pros.

He hedges in his statement with words like “for now”….

But yeah, I think he’s challenging some of the posters here to show their work…. Like the Professor did.

All I know is this…. When my clients start chirping and my trading buddies go all in, I’m positive something is coming. They are usually the last to be IN on the Arctic pattern change.

Nat gas is taking off again today, up 5% so I think you (and they) are definitely thinking that way...

[txtwister78]

That's insane cold on the Euro ENS.

[Iceresistance]

That's insane cold on the Euro ENS.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670587200/1671667200-Qmwv0gpqFEw.png

OP Euro with the EPO literally off the scales!

[Ntxw]

Severe cold is definitely on the table now. As noted earlier we get blinks of it because the time frame is too far out but as the period gets closer it becomes louder. It's a gradual succession of air masses beginning middle of the new week.

[harp]

Severe cold is definitely on the table now. As noted earlier we get blinks of it because the time frame is too far out but as the period gets closer it becomes louder. It's a gradual succession of air masses beginning middle of the new week.

Yes, the question remains, will it be with moisture or bone dry…. ? ?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Oh my… stunningly gorgeous!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Severe cold is definitely on the table now. As noted earlier we get blinks of it because the time frame is too far out but as the period gets closer it becomes louder. It's a gradual succession of air masses beginning middle of the new week.

Yes, the question remains, will it be with moisture or bone dry…. ? ?

I prefer snow, but I’ll take bone dry and frigid over the crap we have today.

[HockeyTx82]

Severe cold is definitely on the table now. As noted earlier we get blinks of it because the time frame is too far out but as the period gets closer it becomes louder. It's a gradual succession of air masses beginning middle of the new week.

OK so are we still in la la fantasy land or is this getting real. And how cold are we talking if that were to materialize, the post above.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Heart, be still.




Amazing flow. You even see the Siberian hang down trying to violate us. Cali probably doesn’t mind though.

[HockeyTx82]

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/E8C8CB1F-9774-4474-89AC-6186B72AD20D.png.4694e32c490c3880fe40b883ae73fce6.png

Heart, be still.


https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_speed-1883200.png.dafd44522397b481b83ca96d6c5213af.png

Amazing flow. You even see the Siberian hang down trying to violate us. Cali probably doesn’t mind though.

What are you posting and how often do we have images like this. Do these tend to show up every Winter and it never materialize.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/E8C8CB1F-9774-4474-89AC-6186B72AD20D.png.4694e32c490c3880fe40b883ae73fce6.png

Heart, be still.


https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_speed-1883200.png.dafd44522397b481b83ca96d6c5213af.png

Amazing flow. You even see the Siberian hang down trying to violate us. Cali probably doesn’t mind though.

What are you posting and how often do we have images like this. Do these tend to show up every Winter and it never materialize.

Top is Euro ensembles on 12/23. Just a textbook map of what you want down here from an upper level perspective.

Bottom is a great example of what you want our flow to look like if cold is coming.

[Iceresistance]

From BAMWX
 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1601303128510341120




Joe Bastardi has taken note of it as well
 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1601302834791604224

[Ntxw]

Severe cold is definitely on the table now. As noted earlier we get blinks of it because the time frame is too far out but as the period gets closer it becomes louder. It's a gradual succession of air masses beginning middle of the new week.

OK so are we still in la la fantasy land or is this getting real. And how cold are we talking if that were to materialize, the post above.

The potential big cold is not in realistic range yet. In general the playbook hasn't changed. The idea of 15th through Christmas is going to gradually get colder stands. Somewhere in the backend of that has the chance to discharge severe cold. The OP models are catching up to the consensus not the other way around.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Latest Euro Op about to lay the Arctic hammer down across lower 48 day 9-10…PV crashing into Great Lakes with 1060 HP forming in NW Canada. Pattern is ripe for this scenario

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1670587200/1671429600-mo2gL5iJQgI.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/mslp_anom/1670587200/16%20%2071429600-SLn2DB0Q8n4.png

Leading up to an arctic blast, cant draw it up any better. Attempting to remain calm......

It is 9-10 days out but if you look at the large anomalies which lead up to this scenario, those large anomalies are consistent on all model runs.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Severe cold is definitely on the table now. As noted earlier we get blinks of it because the time frame is too far out but as the period gets closer it becomes louder. It's a gradual succession of air masses beginning middle of the new week.

OK so are we still in la la fantasy land or is this getting real. And how cold are we talking if that were to materialize, the post above.

The potential big cold is not in realistic range yet. In general the playbook hasn't changed. The idea of 15th through Christmas is going to gradually get colder stands. Somewhere in the backend of that has the chance to discharge severe cold. The OP models are catching up to the consensus not the other way around.

I’m still of the belief that our “ringer” front comes around Christmas or shortly after and we stay in the ice box through January 3-5, roughly. But we will be below normal from the 15th through the first week of January.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Someone tell South Texas Storms to go thump wxman57 on the head and let him know, he needs to head to Australia.

[Ntxw]

OK so are we still in la la fantasy land or is this getting real. And how cold are we talking if that were to materialize, the post above.

The potential big cold is not in realistic range yet. In general the playbook hasn't changed. The idea of 15th through Christmas is going to gradually get colder stands. Somewhere in the backend of that has the chance to discharge severe cold. The OP models are catching up to the consensus not the other way around.

I’m still of the belief that our “ringer” front comes around Christmas or shortly after and we stay in the ice box through January 3-5, roughly. But we will be below normal from the 15th through the first week of January.

I kind of see as the week before Valentines week when it was below normal and hovering near/below freezing we all thought the big cold wasn't coming. Wxman57 touted Euro was warm and not yet cold up north and so on in the opening days of Feb 2021. It took about 7-10 days later before the real stuff showed up.

[orangeblood]

Severe cold is definitely on the table now. As noted earlier we get blinks of it because the time frame is too far out but as the period gets closer it becomes louder. It's a gradual succession of air masses beginning middle of the new week.

3-4 Standard Deviation Ridge above normal for a Mean across
Alaska this far out is about the best indicator you’ll find for a lower 48 Severe Outbreak week 2 forecast. Like you discussed earlier, this doesn’t look like a very difficult forecast for an outbreak…it’s just a matter of how severe at this point

Side note: The 3 most populated regions in the northern hemisphere are about to get hit pretty hard…should be very concerning for our energy supplies going forward if this drags on too long

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The potential big cold is not in realistic range yet. In general the playbook hasn't changed. The idea of 15th through Christmas is going to gradually get colder stands. Somewhere in the backend of that has the chance to discharge severe cold. The OP models are catching up to the consensus not the other way around.

I’m still of the belief that our “ringer” front comes around Christmas or shortly after and we stay in the ice box through January 3-5, roughly. But we will be below normal from the 15th through the first week of January.

I kind of see as the week before Valentines week when it was below normal and hovering near/below freezing we all thought the big cold wasn't coming. Wxman57 touted Euro was warm and not yet cold up north and so on in the opening days of Feb 2021. It took about 7-10 days later before the real stuff showed up.

Meaning you see late next week through the 23rd like that week? If so, I agree.

[South Texas Storms]

Someone tell South Texas Storms to go thump wxman57 on the head and let him know, he needs to head to Australia.

I think he's aware the cold is coming...he just doesn't want to accept it yet. My long-range coworker and I have been calling for a colder weather pattern to return in late December since Thanksgiving, but wxman keeps calling us cold misers.

He'll come around soon enough.