Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6461 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:08 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:This talk of derecho in OK reminded me of the KS "inland hurricane" when I was a kid: https://www.weather.gov/ict/inlandhurricane

Very early for this type of storm considering it's February.


It's in the 50s now in Oklahoma and the line is supposed to move through Oklahoma overnight. It is a little early and linear might be the best mode.


Yeah still only 54 here. Such a weird day for severe weather. Its definitely gonna be a line for most of the state although they are talking about a high end line

Dew Points are in the mid 50s for me, I see DPs in the 60s start to creep into Southern Oklahoma.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6462 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:09 pm

I know the main focus for today is in Oklahoma but I wouldn’t let my guard down between the red river and i20. Tornado threat should be minimal as storm vectors will be nearly parallel to the orientation of the line, but the latest model runs make me think 60mph+ winds can’t be ruled out. Most notably, I see that 850mb winds on the hrrr are over 64kt as the line passes through, wouldn’t take a whole lot to mix some of that down if the storms don’t collapse
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6463 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:34 pm

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6464 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:36 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:I know the main focus for today is in Oklahoma but I wouldn’t let my guard down between the red river and i20. Tornado threat should be minimal as storm vectors will be nearly parallel to the orientation of the line, but the latest model runs make me think 60mph+ winds can’t be ruled out. Most notably, I see that 850mb winds on the hrrr are over 64kt as the line passes through, wouldn’t take a whole lot to mix some of that down if the storms don’t collapse


Clearing and warming appear to be ahead of schedule vs. the hi-res models from DFW up to the Red River. Don't know if that plays much of a role, given the timing of the line.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6465 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:47 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:I know the main focus for today is in Oklahoma but I wouldn’t let my guard down between the red river and i20. Tornado threat should be minimal as storm vectors will be nearly parallel to the orientation of the line, but the latest model runs make me think 60mph+ winds can’t be ruled out. Most notably, I see that 850mb winds on the hrrr are over 64kt as the line passes through, wouldn’t take a whole lot to mix some of that down if the storms don’t collapse


Clearing and warming appear to be ahead of schedule vs. the hi-res models from DFW up to the Red River. Don't know if that plays much of a role, given the timing of the line.

I guess the question is how much warmth, and by extension instability, we hold onto after dark. The forcing, shear (albeit quite unidirectional) and low level jet influence will definitely be present. Main thing that would get in the way is increasing cin that would eliminate the ability for storms to remain tapped into the surface layer resulting in collapse. That said, I think slight risk down to i20 is warranted
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6466 Postby dpep4 » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:05 pm

Dang, tornadoes are already firing up on the outer edges of the SPC gradients in the panhandle and western KS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6467 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:14 pm

This line is pretty incredible already. 114mph gust and golf ball size hail reported out of Memphis, TX. Those of you in Oklahoma be prepared
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6468 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:20 pm

This one looked nasty on radar as it crossed the state line.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6469 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:21 pm

High Wind event looks to be starting and will continue overnight.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6470 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:50 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6471 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:53 pm

Inflow is absolutely ripping here in Norman
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6472 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:13 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Inflow is absolutely ripping here in Norman

Would definitely keep an eye out for spinups in that portion of the line headed your way
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6473 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:16 pm

Tornado on the ground in OKC Metro…

——-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
912 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Oklahoma County in central Oklahoma...
Northwestern Cleveland County in central Oklahoma...
East central Canadian County in central Oklahoma...

* Until 1000 PM CST.

* At 912 PM CST, a tornado producing storm was located over
southwestern Oklahoma City, or near Mustang, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Oklahoma City, Edmond, Bethany, Mustang, Warr Acres, The Village,
Nichols Hills, Jones, Arcadia, Forest Park, Woodlawn Park and Lake
Aluma.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 35 between mile markers 130 and 146.
Interstate 40 between mile markers 139 and 151.
Interstate 44 between mile markers 116 and 145.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
storm shelter, safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6474 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:18 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:Inflow is absolutely ripping here in Norman

Would definitely keep an eye out for spinups in that portion of the line headed your way

Speak of the devil, you’re under a tornado warning now
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6475 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:18 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6476 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:19 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6477 Postby dpep4 » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:22 pm

I've been repeatedly refreshing and reloading the NWS OKC radar ever since the 9:12 pm tor warn was issued. It took 7 minutes for the radar to update with the new warn box.

Is that really the best that our tech can do?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6478 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:25 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6479 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:26 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6480 Postby Texas Snowman » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:27 pm

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