Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

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Tammie
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4761 Postby Tammie » Sat Jan 28, 2023 6:05 am

NWS Ft Worth AFD wants to keep almost everything frozen west of DFW. Time will tell I guess.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4762 Postby funster » Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:02 am

Another cold rain guaranteed situation. Maybe some ice in DFW if temps a couple degrees colder. No one seems to be sure at this point.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4763 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:10 am

Tammie wrote:NWS Ft Worth AFD wants to keep almost everything frozen west of DFW. Time will tell I guess.


Yeah they aren’t even hedging for DFW winter weather in that. All north and west in that discussion.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4764 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:43 am

I really don't want the 0z CMC, that is the definition of an Ice Storm for me and DFW.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4765 Postby gboudx » Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:52 am

From jeff. Seems he's not expecting the arctic airmass to make it down to SETX.

Wet pattern for much of the next week.

Marginal severe weather threat on Sunday…this will NOT be a repeat of Tuesday 1-24-23

Coastal trough has developed and is resulting in inflowing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Radar shows widespread light rain, drizzle, and a few showers over the area this morning in association with a 35kt low level jet. A warm front will move northward today and into the area with showers continuing. Will likely see a break in the light rain this evening ahead of the approaching cold front on Sunday. High resolution guidance has been trending slower with this front and also highlighting areas east of I-45 with the greatest potential for heavy rainfall and a strong or severe thunderstorm.

Heavy Rainfall:
Moisture levels will steadily increase today into Sunday with values exceeding the 90th percentile for late January. Lift associated with both a coastal trough/low passing across the coastal waters on Sunday and the approaching front from the north will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The greatest concentration appears to be along the coast from Brazoria and Galveston Counties and then inland toward the northeast across SE Harris into Liberty and Chambers Counties. If sustained thunderstorms can develop, heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches in an hour will be possible. Additionally, with the slow moving front in the area, there is some potential for cell training, although this looks most likely east of I-45 and really more toward the Sabine River into Louisiana.

Rainfall amounts of .50-1.5 inches will be possible west of I-45 and 1-2 inches east of I-45, could see an isolated total of 3 inches in and around Galveston Bay.

Hydro:
Run-off continues from the heavy rainfall on Tuesday with creeks and rivers still elevated over the region and grounds are fully saturated, so additional rainfall is going to convert into run-off. Appears the maximum rainfall amounts of Sunday will be south of the area that saw the heaviest rainfall on Tuesday and over watersheds that are not significantly elevated, but it would not take much of a shift to the north or west in the rainfall to bring heavier rains into areas where elevated creeks and rivers are in play.

Severe Threat:
SPC has expanded the marginal (1 out of 5) risk level to include all of SE TX. Wind field parameters are significantly weaker than this past Tuesday and low level rotation values much lower. However, with mid and upper 60 degree dewpoints moving into the area and slightly cooler air aloft overspreading the region form the southwest, the air mass will become slightly unstable on Sunday. A few strong to severe storms may develop over the region with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and large hail. There is an isolated tornado threat…but again this threat is significantly lower than what the area faced last Tuesday.

Next Week:
Front stalls near the coast or offshore and moisture will continue to override the boundary with several disturbances aloft moving across the area. This will result in a cloudy and at times wet period from Monday-Thursday. Cold arctic air mass attempts to push southward, but looks to be held up into NW/C TX and never really is able to funnel into SE TX. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period with the greatest chances likely on Wednesday as another storm system moves across the area from the SW US.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4766 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:10 am

For those of us in central TX, the NAM has backed off some on freezing temps. The 0z run had Austin at 33 Tue AM but subsequent runs now have us in the upper 30s. Something for us to watch closely though.

For you Metroplexers and North Texans however I think it’s GAME ON.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4767 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:25 am

1053 mb HP in NW Canada right now per WPC Analysis.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4768 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:46 am

Portastorm wrote:For those of us in central TX, the NAM has backed off some on freezing temps. The 0z run had Austin at 33 Tue AM but subsequent runs now have us in the upper 30s. Something for us to watch closely though.

For you Metroplexers and North Texans however I think it’s GAME ON.


Think it's just a little slower now bringing freezing temps that far south as opposed to previous runs but eventually they get there outside the cities (hill country). Interesting that it's later in the day on the 12z run.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4769 Postby Gotwood » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:48 am

Portastorm wrote:For those of us in central TX, the NAM has backed off some on freezing temps. The 0z run had Austin at 33 Tue AM but subsequent runs now have us in the upper 30s. Something for us to watch closely though.

For you Metroplexers and North Texans however I think it’s GAME ON.

Has y’all hitting the freezing mark on Wednesday now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4770 Postby Gotwood » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:49 am

txtwister78 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:For those of us in central TX, the NAM has backed off some on freezing temps. The 0z run had Austin at 33 Tue AM but subsequent runs now have us in the upper 30s. Something for us to watch closely though.

For you Metroplexers and North Texans however I think it’s GAME ON.

Yeah I think the cold wins out.
Think it's just a little slower now bringing freezing temps that far south as opposed to previous runs but eventually they get there outside the cities (hill country). Interesting that it's later in the day on the 12z run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/austin/t2m_f/1674907200/1675209600-SwqovAIgE94.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4771 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:53 am

Gotwood wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:For those of us in central TX, the NAM has backed off some on freezing temps. The 0z run had Austin at 33 Tue AM but subsequent runs now have us in the upper 30s. Something for us to watch closely though.

For you Metroplexers and North Texans however I think it’s GAME ON.


Think it's just a little slower now bringing freezing temps that far south as opposed to previous runs but eventually they get there outside the cities (hill country). Interesting that it's later in the day on the 12z run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/austin/t2m_f/1674907200/1675209600-SwqovAIgE94.png

Yeah I think the cold wins out.

The Shallow Cold Air is more likely to win out because it ignores the upper patterns and follows the cold front.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4772 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:05 am

Models are trending slower with the system kicking out of the SW and are swinging the TPV through Eastern Canada a bit faster. This is creating a more favorable upper pattern that might allow for a more dynamic system and the associated marginal chances for snow to move across Texas.

12z GFS Today

Image

vs. 12z Yesterday

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4773 Postby cstrunk » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:19 am

Looking forward to cold rain this week. :spam:

Not.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4774 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:23 am

bubba hotep wrote:Models are trending slower with the system kicking out of the SW and are swinging the TPV through Eastern Canada a bit faster. This is creating a more favorable upper pattern that might allow for a more dynamic system and the associated marginal chances for snow to move across Texas.

12z GFS Today

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023012812/gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

vs. 12z Yesterday

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023012712/gfs_z500_vort_us_23.png


Plus more cold air to work with this time around vs this past weeks system
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4775 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:43 am

12z GFS says, "There might be a wee chance" (This is later in the week and not the potential freezing drizzle event)

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4776 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:48 am

bubba hotep wrote:12z GFS says, "There might be a wee chance" (This is later in the week and not the potential freezing drizzle event)

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023012812/168/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png


Canadian on board and has been leading from 1st tee box…consistency heavily favored in setups like this

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4777 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:51 am

What about the latest NBM?

I know I've been asking the same question for a while, but I can't see it and it has a surprisingly good signal for an Ice Storm and Sleet Storm considering how conservative it usually is.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4778 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:02 pm

cstrunk wrote:Looking forward to cold rain this week. :spam:

Not.

I think us in E TX will get in on this one, freezing rain will be borderline Tue and Wed with temps in the 31 to 34 range. Wed to Thu could end up pretty snowy though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4779 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:09 pm

orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z GFS says, "There might be a wee chance" (This is later in the week and not the potential freezing drizzle event)

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023012812/168/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png


Canadian on board and has been leading from 1st tee box…consistency heavily favored in setups like this

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674907200/1675501200-4DryqL9twZY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1674907200/1675501200-MhxPWRiwvQU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1674907200/1675501200-w2LNg18z25g.png


For the high on Tuesday, FWD is pretty close to the GFS/Euro. The 12k NAM has DFW below freezing and the CMC is in the twenties. Who is going to bust - FWD/Euro/GFS or CMC/12kNAM?
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4780 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:18 pm

Looking like mostly cold rain, to me. I don't buy the Canadian's major ice storm for a second.
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