Texas Winter 2023-2024

[tajmahal]

Dr. Judah Cohen believes that the steength of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) during meteorological winter is influenced by snow cover extent in Siberia during the preceding October. The more snow cover, the higher likelihood of a disrupted SPV.

Equally important as Siberian snow cover extent is sea ice extent in the Barents and Kara Seas during October. The less ice, the higher likelihood of a disrupted SPV.

A disrupted SPV dislodges Arctic air and causes it to migrate to mid–latitudes, not necessarily in North America. Where it goes depends on the orientation of the disrupted SPV. By "disrupted," he includes stretching as well as sudden stratospheric warmings.

At shorter time scales, he believes that prolonged 500 mb high pressure blocking in the Ural Mountains and the Barents and Kara Seas is usually predictive of a SPV disruption in the near to middle term. That's especially true when Siberia is abnormally cold for a prolonged period.

Like almost all other weather experts, he believes that North America will be the target of an Arctic air outbreak (caused by a disrupted SPV) only if there is 500 mb high pressure blocking over Greenland and Alaska. Otherwise, the Arctic air targets Eurasia.

This is merely a summary of his views.

[Ntxw]

Pretty strong agreement across the models on a dynamic system impacting the state out beyond Day 7. Classic El Nino Bowling Ball on tap!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023120112/gfs_z500_vort_namer_41.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023120112/gem_z500_vort_namer_41.png

We'll take Canadian at 500. Aleutian trough > GOA.

[Itryatgolf]

Pretty strong agreement across the models on a dynamic system impacting the state out beyond Day 7. Classic El Nino Bowling Ball on tap!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023120112/gfs_z500_vort_namer_41.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023120112/gem_z500_vort_namer_41.png

We'll take Canadian at 500. Aleutian trough > GOA.

Ntwx, do you think the mjo will be more in the colder phases around Christmas or could it be somewhat earlier or later?

[Ntxw]

Pretty strong agreement across the models on a dynamic system impacting the state out beyond Day 7. Classic El Nino Bowling Ball on tap!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023120112/gfs_z500_vort_namer_41.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023120112/gem_z500_vort_namer_41.png

We'll take Canadian at 500. Aleutian trough > GOA.

Ntwx, do you think the mjo will be more in the colder phases around Christmas or could it be somewhat earlier or later?

Itryatgolf I think we go 7-8-1 after mid month. There's a big WWB modeled around same time is likely a MJO constructive interference signal.

[Iceresistance]

We'll take Canadian at 500. Aleutian trough > GOA.

Ntwx, do you think the mjo will be more in the colder phases around Christmas or could it be somewhat earlier or later?

Itryatgolf I think we go 7-8-1 after mid month. There's a big WWB modeled around same time is likely a MJO constructive interference signal.

A lot of the models are showing that signal, we could have something huge by around Christmas, especially if the MJO slows down at those phases.

Take this example from the GEFS Mean Temperature Anomalies, note that despite the torch, look at NW Canada and Alaska

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJUn.png

[cheezyWXguy]

Ntwx, do you think the mjo will be more in the colder phases around Christmas or could it be somewhat earlier or later?

Itryatgolf I think we go 7-8-1 after mid month. There's a big WWB modeled around same time is likely a MJO constructive interference signal.

A lot of the models are showing that signal, we could have something huge by around Christmas, especially if the MJO slows down at those phases.

Take this example from the GEFS Mean Temperature Anomalies, note that despite the torch, look at NW Canada and Alaska
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJUn.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJUn.png

That’s certainly one of the boxes that needs to be checked, and in combination with ntxw’s post about the progression of the mjo, I like the prospects.

One thing that concerns me though is the drought in New Mexico and Arizona - If a favorable EPO/PNA combination did arise to allow for a cold air dump from Alaska, could this serve as hinderance for moisture return into whatever system we might depend on for precip in such a scenario?

[Iceresistance]

Itryatgolf I think we go 7-8-1 after mid month. There's a big WWB modeled around same time is likely a MJO constructive interference signal.

A lot of the models are showing that signal, we could have something huge by around Christmas, especially if the MJO slows down at those phases.

Take this example from the GEFS Mean Temperature Anomalies, note that despite the torch, look at NW Canada and Alaska
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJUn.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJUn.png

That’s certainly one of the boxes that needs to be checked, and in combination with ntxw’s post about the progression of the mjo, I like the prospects.

One thing that concerns me though is the drought in New Mexico and Arizona - If a favorable EPO/PNA combination did arise to allow for a cold air dump from Alaska, could this serve as hinderance for moisture return into whatever system we might depend on for precip in such a scenario?

This was from February 2021's extreme cold and snow in the Southern Plains on the Drought Moniter, the Drought was MUCH more intense to the west

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJZb.png

This is what it is now, it's much smaller and less intense compared to what it was in February 2021.

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJZx.png

[Stratton23]

12z EPS has a snow signal for parts of the state with this bowling bowl upper low

[cheezyWXguy]

A lot of the models are showing that signal, we could have something huge by around Christmas, especially if the MJO slows down at those phases.

Take this example from the GEFS Mean Temperature Anomalies, note that despite the torch, look at NW Canada and Alaska
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJUn.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJUn.png

That’s certainly one of the boxes that needs to be checked, and in combination with ntxw’s post about the progression of the mjo, I like the prospects.

One thing that concerns me though is the drought in New Mexico and Arizona - If a favorable EPO/PNA combination did arise to allow for a cold air dump from Alaska, could this serve as hinderance for moisture return into whatever system we might depend on for precip in such a scenario?

This was from February 2021's extreme cold and snow in the Southern Plains on the Drought Moniter, the Drought was MUCH more intense to the west
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJZb.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJZb.png

This is what it is now, it's much smaller and less intense compared to what it was in February 2021.
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJZx.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SRJZx.png

Thanks for this, I had completely forgotten how bad the drought was out west that winter. Makes it pretty clear it would come down to how the pattern plays out, how active the southern jet stream is, and the resultant characteristics of the trough.

[Ntxw]

Hopefully we can morph the W-Can blocking in the medium range to become a west based -AO/-NAO. That would really take us to 2009.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx would a west based canada blocking affect this cut off low the models are showing? Seems like ridging does really trap this thing

[Ntxw]

Ntwx would a west based canada blocking affect this cut off low the models are showing? Seems like ridging does really trap this thing

As the season goes on and El Nino forcing continues to permeate (its effects are most felt during NHEM winter of course) we will continue to see ridging up in Canada. We would definitely love for blocking to be over Alaska that extends through Hudson Bay. The big storms will break off the Aleutian trough and swing thru the southern plains like the golden years.

It would also be ideal to hold a -AO in December during El Nino. It typically returns in February if it happens in December.

[Ntxw]

There sure is growing support for a much weakened PV this month. The signs point in this direction. I don't expect a dislodging of some freak cold air mass like what occurs in La Nina sometimes, but rather a storm track fueled cold.

[bubba hotep]

Huge NE shift with the 18z GFS, the only reason this gives me concern b/c it shifts the precipitation pattern to more closely match what we have been seeing here lately (i.e. everything primarily east of I35)

[Cpv17]

Huge NE shift with the 18z GFS, the only reason this gives me concern b/c it shifts the precipitation pattern to more closely match what we have been seeing here lately (i.e. everything primarily east of I35)

Well they say the SE is gonna see the bulk of the precipitation over the next few months. Kinda feels like Texas will just get glancing blows.

[Stratton23]

Long ways to go with this system so plenty of time for shifts as expected, im very interested to see if the weakening of the PV does occur this month, definitely could have some big impacts down the road

[Brent]

Huge NE shift with the 18z GFS, the only reason this gives me concern b/c it shifts the precipitation pattern to more closely match what we have been seeing here lately (i.e. everything primarily east of I35)

Yeah im not worried about cold this winter I'm worried about precip. It's been a consistent theme for months that we've largely underperformed at every turn. I mean I hope things get better but yesterday was a prime example of why we have a long way to go

[Itryatgolf]

Huge NE shift with the 18z GFS, the only reason this gives me concern b/c it shifts the precipitation pattern to more closely match what we have been seeing here lately (i.e. everything primarily east of I35)

Yeah im not worried about cold this winter I'm worried about precip. It's been a consistent theme for months that we've largely underperformed at every turn. I mean I hope things get better but yesterday was a prime example of why we have a long way to go

What is yalls avg snow there? Ours is 4-5 inches here

[Iceresistance]

Huge NE shift with the 18z GFS, the only reason this gives me concern b/c it shifts the precipitation pattern to more closely match what we have been seeing here lately (i.e. everything primarily east of I35)

Yeah im not worried about cold this winter I'm worried about precip. It's been a consistent theme for months that we've largely underperformed at every turn. I mean I hope things get better but yesterday was a prime example of why we have a long way to go

What is yalls avg snow there? Ours is 4-5 inches here

Around 5-6 inches for me

[South Texas Storms]

Huge NE shift with the 18z GFS, the only reason this gives me concern b/c it shifts the precipitation pattern to more closely match what we have been seeing here lately (i.e. everything primarily east of I35)

Yep, that's my concern as well. Really hope we don't see the winter pattern set up with much of the precip east of IH-35. Would love to see a cut off low hanging out over Mexico in the 8-10 day time period like the Euro has been showing the past few runs.