Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

Hello ntxw. How many different analogs have a -pdo and an intense El niño during winter and what were their outcomes?

Thanks in advance

That -PDO better get the heck outta here & fast!

[Ntxw]

Hello ntxw. How many different analogs have a -pdo and an intense El niño during winter and what were their outcomes?

Thanks in advance

The PDO won't likely stay negative in winter. The Nino will eventually force it positive. The idea is will it remain positive?1963, 1972, and 2009 are three possibilities. El Nino going in from -PDO is usually pretty good with a cold source region. ++PDO in winter will flood the country with warmth.

This is the best winter prospect with an El Nino we have moved into since 2014. It doesn't guaranty a cold winter per se, but a true STJ cool south, warm north. Typical question is what will the high latitude polar regions do.

Sometime in October we will transition a complete reversal of the summer pattern. Where there were ridges, there should be troughs vice versa.



Eventually it will settle with the longwave pattern starting in the southwest with lower heights (STJ) and ridging over the Atlantic Canada and Greenland. This is a staple of strong El Ninos.

[Itryatgolf]

Hello ntxw. How many different analogs have a -pdo and an intense El niño during winter and what were their outcomes?

Thanks in advance

The PDO won't likely stay negative in winter. The Nino will eventually force it positive. The idea is will it remain positive?1963, 1972, and 2009 are three possibilities. El Nino going in from -PDO is usually pretty good with a cold source region. ++PDO in winter will flood the country with warmth.

This is the best winter prospect with an El Nino we have moved into since 2014. It doesn't guaranty a cold winter per se, but a true STJ cool south, warm north. Typical question is what will the high latitude polar regions do.

Sometime in October we will transition a complete reversal of the summer pattern. Where there were ridges, there should be troughs vice versa.

https://i.imgur.com/upyVE1e.png

Eventually it will settle with the longwave pattern starting in the southwest with lower heights (STJ) and ridging over the Atlantic Canada and Greenland. This is a staple of strong El Ninos.

https://i.imgur.com/2J66Bbu.png

I know there is talk about the pdo staying negative for most of the winter and that is why I asked how many analogs for strong niños are there with a -pdo? -ao/nao is important every winter

[Cpv17]

Hello ntxw. How many different analogs have a -pdo and an intense El niño during winter and what were their outcomes?

Thanks in advance

The PDO won't likely stay negative in winter. The Nino will eventually force it positive. The idea is will it remain positive?1963, 1972, and 2009 are three possibilities. El Nino going in from -PDO is usually pretty good with a cold source region. ++PDO in winter will flood the country with warmth.

This is the best winter prospect with an El Nino we have moved into since 2014. It doesn't guaranty a cold winter per se, but a true STJ cool south, warm north. Typical question is what will the high latitude polar regions do.

Sometime in October we will transition a complete reversal of the summer pattern. Where there were ridges, there should be troughs vice versa.

https://i.imgur.com/upyVE1e.png

Eventually it will settle with the longwave pattern starting in the southwest with lower heights (STJ) and ridging over the Atlantic Canada and Greenland. This is a staple of strong El Ninos.

https://i.imgur.com/2J66Bbu.png

I know there is talk about the pdo staying negative for most of the winter and that is why I asked how many analogs for strong niños are there with a -pdo? -ao/nao is important every winter

I’ve not heard of that talk anywhere…

The PDO is supposed to start warming from what I’ve heard.

[Ntxw]

There's definitely been some chatter about a good cryosphere (AO domain) and PNA region. Some +PNA is OK with a performing STJ. It doesn't scream severe cold blasts but maybe we can get more strong systems to pull enough for wintry weather!

Honestly I would take some cold rain right now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Got this nugget in a newsletter this morning….

SSW events occur in approximately 60% of Northern Hemisphere winters, and usually occur in January or February, so are more impactful during the back half of winter. These events are driven by upward transport of air from closer to the ground, which acts as a braking mechanism to slow/reverse the westerly winds. When the SPV slows/reverses, we often see a rapid warming, sometimes up to 50C in a few days. This is called a SSW Event. This warming then descends, breaking down the entire vortex, weakening the jet stream, allowing cold Arctic air near the surface to spread southward into the mid-latitudes. SSW events are somewhat predictable 2-3 weeks before the event. And the timeframe for this to impact the surface is around 4-6 weeks after the event. However, it should be stressed that not all SSWs are the same.

We are currently heading into a descending easterly phase of QBO. Research has linked an EQBO to a weaker SPV in winter and that SSWE occur in 90% of all winters with an EQBO.

While with regards to El Nino, a higher percentage of years than normal have SSW events with a moderate to strong El Nino.

[Itryatgolf]

Got this nugget in a newsletter this morning….

SSW events occur in approximately 60% of Northern Hemisphere winters, and usually occur in January or February, so are more impactful during the back half of winter. These events are driven by upward transport of air from closer to the ground, which acts as a braking mechanism to slow/reverse the westerly winds. When the SPV slows/reverses, we often see a rapid warming, sometimes up to 50C in a few days. This is called a SSW Event. This warming then descends, breaking down the entire vortex, weakening the jet stream, allowing cold Arctic air near the surface to spread southward into the mid-latitudes. SSW events are somewhat predictable 2-3 weeks before the event. And the timeframe for this to impact the surface is around 4-6 weeks after the event. However, it should be stressed that not all SSWs are the same.

We are currently heading into a descending easterly phase of QBO. Research has linked an EQBO to a weaker SPV in winter and that SSWE occur in 90% of all winters with an EQBO.

While with regards to El Nino, a higher percentage of years than normal have SSW events with a moderate to strong El Nino.

SSW events are good if they happen early enough to make an impact and also happen on our side of the world. Really not many analogs with a -pdo and strong niño. From what I understand

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Got this nugget in a newsletter this morning….

SSW events occur in approximately 60% of Northern Hemisphere winters, and usually occur in January or February, so are more impactful during the back half of winter. These events are driven by upward transport of air from closer to the ground, which acts as a braking mechanism to slow/reverse the westerly winds. When the SPV slows/reverses, we often see a rapid warming, sometimes up to 50C in a few days. This is called a SSW Event. This warming then descends, breaking down the entire vortex, weakening the jet stream, allowing cold Arctic air near the surface to spread southward into the mid-latitudes. SSW events are somewhat predictable 2-3 weeks before the event. And the timeframe for this to impact the surface is around 4-6 weeks after the event. However, it should be stressed that not all SSWs are the same.

We are currently heading into a descending easterly phase of QBO. Research has linked an EQBO to a weaker SPV in winter and that SSWE occur in 90% of all winters with an EQBO.

While with regards to El Nino, a higher percentage of years than normal have SSW events with a moderate to strong El Nino.

SSW events are good if they happen early enough to make an impact and also happen on our side of the world. Really not many analogs with a -pdo and strong niño. From what I understand

Nino is going to be moderate to strong but not super, and I’m not worried about the PDO going deep into Fall. It will push positive.

[BTAYLOR5021]

Super strong events kill our cold and snow chances in north Texas. Moderate ninos such as 09-10 would be a perfect set up.

[Itryatgolf]

Got this nugget in a newsletter this morning….

SSW events occur in approximately 60% of Northern Hemisphere winters, and usually occur in January or February, so are more impactful during the back half of winter. These events are driven by upward transport of air from closer to the ground, which acts as a braking mechanism to slow/reverse the westerly winds. When the SPV slows/reverses, we often see a rapid warming, sometimes up to 50C in a few days. This is called a SSW Event. This warming then descends, breaking down the entire vortex, weakening the jet stream, allowing cold Arctic air near the surface to spread southward into the mid-latitudes. SSW events are somewhat predictable 2-3 weeks before the event. And the timeframe for this to impact the surface is around 4-6 weeks after the event. However, it should be stressed that not all SSWs are the same.

We are currently heading into a descending easterly phase of QBO. Research has linked an EQBO to a weaker SPV in winter and that SSWE occur in 90% of all winters with an EQBO.

While with regards to El Nino, a higher percentage of years than normal have SSW events with a moderate to strong El Nino.

SSW events are good if they happen early enough to make an impact and also happen on our side of the world. Really not many analogs with a -pdo and strong niño. From what I understand

Nino is going to be moderate to strong but not super, and I’m not worried about the PDO going deep into Fall. It will push positive.

It would be nice to see the pdo turn more neutral and then positive. Over at American weather they are talking about the atmosphere is still weak niño, despite the ocean with it is in strong status currently. Relating to the MEI and ONI and other things

[Ptarmigan]

Hello ntxw. How many different analogs have a -pdo and an intense El niño during winter and what were their outcomes?

Thanks in advance

The PDO won't likely stay negative in winter. The Nino will eventually force it positive. The idea is will it remain positive?1963, 1972, and 2009 are three possibilities. El Nino going in from -PDO is usually pretty good with a cold source region. ++PDO in winter will flood the country with warmth.

This is the best winter prospect with an El Nino we have moved into since 2014. It doesn't guaranty a cold winter per se, but a true STJ cool south, warm north. Typical question is what will the high latitude polar regions do.

Sometime in October we will transition a complete reversal of the summer pattern. Where there were ridges, there should be troughs vice versa.

https://i.imgur.com/upyVE1e.png

Eventually it will settle with the longwave pattern starting in the southwest with lower heights (STJ) and ridging over the Atlantic Canada and Greenland. This is a staple of strong El Ninos.

https://i.imgur.com/2J66Bbu.png

The winter of 1963-1964, 1972-1973, and 2009-2010 were quite cold. 1963, 1972, and 2009 had years that went from La Nina to El Nino.

[tajmahal]

A negative PDO moderates, i.e., decreases, an El Niño's effects.

[TropicalTundra]

[Tejas89]

[texas1836]

https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/test-map-avg-snowfall-anom-el-nino-winters-moderate-to-strong-jfm-2000.jpg?c=original

Where did everybody go???????

[Cpv17]

https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/test-map-avg-snowfall-anom-el-nino-winters-moderate-to-strong-jfm-2000.jpg?c=original

Where did everybody go???????

We’re in the fall thread. We won’t start using this one regularly till December 1st.

[Cpv17]

Looking at some longer range guidance, I’m beginning to be intrigued about the Christmas/New Years timeframe.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looking at some longer range guidance, I’m beginning to be intrigued about the Christmas/New Years timeframe.

These next 10 days being true Fall fronts and not Arctic blasts may save the Christmas timeframe for us! I’ll wait if it means a very cold Holidays.

Thanksgiving will feel great.

[Brent]

Looking at some longer range guidance, I’m beginning to be intrigued about the Christmas/New Years timeframe.

Well if we follow the trend there should at least be a cold front around the holidays(I know this one isn't that impressive but still)... Halloween... Thanksgiving... Christmas?

On another subject I said it in the fall thread but I'll say it here too... There's been some very bullish winter forecasts up here lately and while there are a couple bad analogs no doubt there are more analogs that were very big here so we'll see what happens. I'm almost certain regardless it'll be a lot better than last winter

[Itryatgolf]

Looking at some longer range guidance, I’m beginning to be intrigued about the Christmas/New Years timeframe.

Well if we follow the trend there should at least be a cold front around the holidays(I know this one isn't that impressive but still)... Halloween... Thanksgiving... Christmas?

On another subject I said it in the fall thread but I'll say it here too... There's been some very bullish winter forecasts up here lately and while there are a couple bad analogs no doubt there are more analogs that were very big here so we'll see what happens. I'm almost certain regardless it'll be a lot better than last winter

Brent, I hope you are correct. We did see a big cold blast last December and a mini ice/sleet event for a few days in beginning of February last winter and it would be good to see more winter weather this winter