Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Brent]

Huge NE shift with the 18z GFS, the only reason this gives me concern b/c it shifts the precipitation pattern to more closely match what we have been seeing here lately (i.e. everything primarily east of I35)

Yeah im not worried about cold this winter I'm worried about precip. It's been a consistent theme for months that we've largely underperformed at every turn. I mean I hope things get better but yesterday was a prime example of why we have a long way to go

What is yalls avg snow there? Ours is 4-5 inches here

9 inches which is crazy to me although we did get more than that in 21-22(most of it was one storm in February though)

Last winter ended with 2... And half that was sleet

[bubba hotep]

00z Canadian joins the GFS... lol

[Stratton23]

Doesnt mean much at this range lol, models will flip, still a good 8-9 days out

[Cpv17]

Well Louisiana and Mississippi have been extremely dry, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they now turn extremely wet to balance things out and Texas ends up just getting the edge of these systems. That’s what it’s looking like to me anyway.

[South Texas Storms]

Well Louisiana and Mississippi have been extremely dry, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they now turn extremely wet to balance things out and Texas ends up just getting the edge of these systems. That’s what it’s looking like to me anyway.

Yeah I'm fearing that will be the case. Watch their extreme drought completely be erased in a few months while ours persists

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not trying to jinx it, but typically the storms arent as deep as advertised and trend northward. Bowling balls that track along the NM/CO border bring monster snow totals here in Denver.

I think for Texas, it would be ideal if the ULL Digs down to the Ft stockton/Big Bend area. You dont want it digging down into the AZ/NM region.

Eery major model has this system and the ensembles are promising.

[Cpv17]

Well Louisiana and Mississippi have been extremely dry, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they now turn extremely wet to balance things out and Texas ends up just getting the edge of these systems. That’s what it’s looking like to me anyway.

Yeah I'm fearing that will be the case. Watch their extreme drought completely be erased in a few months while ours persists

Yep, the ensembles show this as well.

[Cpv17]

Not trying to jinx it, but typically the storms arent as deep as advertised and trend northward. Bowling balls that track along the NM/CO border bring monster snow totals here in Denver.

I think for Texas, it would be ideal if the ULL Digs down to the Ft stockton/Big Bend area. You dont want it digging down into the AZ/NM region.

Eery major model has this system and the ensembles are promising.

Ensembles have most of the rain from Louisiana to Georgia.

[bubba hotep]

12z runs are continuing the trend of replacing lower heights in the SW US with a ridge

[Cpv17]

12z runs are continuing the trend of replacing lower heights in the SW US with a ridge

Sounds about right tbh.

[Stratton23]

Looks like another significant trough ( at least on the gfs and cmc) could be diving down right on the heels of this bowling ball low, lots to watch

[Brent]

12z runs are continuing the trend of replacing lower heights in the SW US with a ridge

I really hope we end this trend before the heart of winter because yeah

[Cpv17]

12z runs are continuing the trend of replacing lower heights in the SW US with a ridge

I really hope we end this trend before the heart of winter because yeah

The climate models and most winter forecast have the SE getting hammered with precip this winter.

[PTrackerLA]

Finally got a drought denting rain in South LA and it was a doozy. Over 7.5" with this event putting a dent on the 22" (!) Rainfall deficit we were running this year. Hopefully our improvement starts spreading west into Texas as we go through Decemeber. EVERY desperately needed modeled rain event has been a bust this fall...until this one which nailed us!

[Brent]

12z runs are continuing the trend of replacing lower heights in the SW US with a ridge

I really hope we end this trend before the heart of winter because yeah

The climate models and most winter forecast have the SE getting hammered with precip this winter.

Of course they do thats my big concern this winter dry cold

[gpsnowman]

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/december72013
10 year anniversary of the "cobblestone ice"event. Some Saturday reading while we wait patiently for some rain, cold, and snow.

[Stratton23]

Big change in the 500 mb pattern on the GFS in the long range after our bowling ball low departs

[Iceresistance]

Happy Hour GFS with a big snowstorm in Fantasyland


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Si2fY.gif

[Itryatgolf]

Happy Hour GFS with a big snowstorm in Fantasyland

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Si2fY.gif
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Si2fY.gif

18zgfs usually never disappoints with happy hour. Nice system regardless

[Cpv17]

Love the blocking starting to pop over Alaska at the end of the 18z GFS but I doubt it happens.