About king of weather's winter prediction

[rob22]

i would really like for that to happen but i think you may be a bit optimistic. While i do agree that this winter should be at least a bit below normal temp wise, your snow call is too high for now. data says equal chances for those areas you have in best chance of the most snow relative to normal. i cant ignore 79-80 or 58-59 totally. i also cant go nuts with 60-61 or if the qbo goes west, 77-78 or 63-64.

[JCT777]

Hey rob, just wondering if you are going to post a winter weather outlook. I would be interested in what your thinking is, given the analogs you mentioned.

At this juncture, I personally think that this winter (Dec. through Feb.) will feature slightly below normal temps east of the Mississippi, and probably in the northern plains too. Precip will be above normal in the east, with snowfall just slightly above normal due to expected swings in temps (which will cause some of the precip to be ice or rain). So this won't be a repeat of last winter, but it won't be anywhere near as dreadful for snow lovers as the winter of 2001-02.

[Colin]

I don't think this winter will be as great as some are saying...normal temps and normal or slightly below normal precipitation...I'm going with KA.

[Guest]

i would really like for that to happen but i think you may be a bit optimistic. While i do agree that this winter should be at least a bit below normal temp wise, your snow call is too high for now. data says equal chances for those areas you have in best chance of the most snow relative to normal. i cant ignore 79-80 or 58-59 totally. i also cant go nuts with 60-61 or if the qbo goes west, 77-78 or 63-64.

Not beeing optimistic Rob Even though for us it may seem that way........
I am more or less going with data i have found and with most of the analogs i have looked at thier is very opposing outcomes depending on where you are located which for that reason i used a very little of this (some but not much)...............Too many variables................Yea you can do a little comparison however no year is like another and with the kind of setup we are looking at this winter its almost imposible to even suggest this winter will be like one we may have had before..........................

This winter as far as the main driving force goes El'Ninio/La'Ninia we are La nada which you already know......................Yea ole EL may begin to rear his head a little late in the winter (which i did take into account towards the end of the winter) but overall as you know it shouldnt be much as a factor the majority of the winter...................Then take into account such things as HM has discussed (Which you have seen so i dont need to go into all of that) such as QBO (which you just mentioned)/ Pacific anomalies/ Canadian Snowcover (More recently because its only just begun and so far looking good) which btw my outlook is now beeing supported by alot of other outlooks that i have seen with the exception of KA and one or two others who more or less imo took a crap shot at it without no data with the exception of KA of course who as well focused to much imo on 79/80 analog....................Trust me when i say i DIDNT do this with my heart......................For something like this and with it beeing shown like it is (On its own page for the site) i took my time and made sure i did some research into it when i did it......................Yea it took awhile to do especially beeing so early but it was a must......................

You will notice as well i didnt say exactly how much above normal a place may see which im about to do a update to include that and other slight adjustments that may be needed for it.......................As of right now i dont see many needed especially from i95 west to the Rockies.....................Only thing left to consider a little will be of what happens in the tropics which believe it or not as Don and others have said it has some impact on our winter which i did somewhat account for and so far so good because the tropics are pretty much behaving like i expected them to back when i did this outlook!

As you know there is no 100% gaurentee with such a outlook like this which covers the Country as a whole and not just a region.

I hope this helps some........................