EURO advertising a change ... Blue Norther style

[Stormsfury]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

Also some potential for snows on the back side of that low pressure as cold air is forced southward ala the Blue Norther. Jacki .. this storm just might be for ya!

SF

[Stormsfury]

Also, the potential for a severe weather setup in the warm sector.

Actually two separate corridors. One associated with a squall line potentially from GA northward into the Mid-Atlantic. The second may be a shallow line crossing through Ohio.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf500s.html

Could get very interesting at the end of the week/early next week.

SF

[StormCrazyIowan]

I am ready and waiting, bring it ON!!!

[GAStorm]

Certainly something to keep an eye on! Thanks for the info SF!

[Guest]

Well well well.................Thought i would mention that the 00z GFS shows this system as well now...................GFS however has a ton of precip and as well has this system moving very slowly with alot of wrap around Precip/Snow for the Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley...................Gonna be a very intresting next couple of days as we follow this potential huge storm........................

[LehighValleyForcaster]

Thanks to storm fury I was able to locate you and where you are posting your forecast.

[wx247]

Yes indeed. Our local mets are mentioning this big change, too. :o

[JCT777]

This definitely looks like it was the potential to be a powerful storm. Very interesting indeed!

[Mr Bob]

Also, the potential for a severe weather setup in the warm sector.

Actually two separate corridors. One associated with a squall line potentially from GA northward into the Mid-Atlantic. The second may be a shallow line crossing through Ohio.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf500s.html

Could get very interesting at the end of the week/early next week.

SF

Indeed, SF, this has the potential to be very interesting...perhaps not as volatile as Nov 9-11 last year, but certainly enough to catch my eye this morning. The key west of the Apps will be how much moisture can get north. It will likely be a narrow band spiking rather quickly. Initiation somewhere along the GC in S MS then spreading into W AL and C TN (if we get "lucky"). I would also be concerned for some wedging in N GA which would stymie any big threat for ATL though it is always a race! I would be surprised if the good instability can get much farther north than TN Valley on west side of Apps though as you say a narrow line of low topped convection with some strong gusty winds along the front are certainly possible in the OH Valley....Nice to have something interesting to watch over the next few days!

[JetMaxx]

A severe wx outbreak in the SE US in late October would be unusual, but not unheard of...especially in southern sections of MS/ AL/ GA as well as Florida. I remember a rather potent outbreak in October 1993 that left several dead in SW Georgia near Albany and another fatality in northern Florida.

[Stormsfury]

Thanks to storm fury I was able to locate you and where you are posting your forecast.

Hey, LVF, glad to see you found us. Welcome to Storm2k.

SF

[Guest]

Thanks to storm fury I was able to locate you and where you are posting your forecast.

Hey there Lehigh long tim no see Im glad you finally found your way over here................Welcome aboard Storm2K.................Im looking forward to our discussions of the up comming winter!!!!!!!!!!!

[StormCrazyIowan]

Well, still no word from my local mets , but you all have definitely peaked my attention! I just pray it isn't a dud!!

[therock1811]

I hope it snows a little for H'ween!!! BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!

[Guest]

Well todays runs so far are still showing the same thing perhaps slightly eastward taking the low up right through eastern Ohio and up into SE canada across Lake Erie which in turn will keep the severe threat high along the eastcoast/TN Valley and the snow on the backside in the Lakes from about i70 north in IL,IN, and OH,PA as the system gets north of those last two states...................Looks like several (POSSIBLE)clipper type systems following the big storm with what should be cold enough air dropping into the northern plains then the Midwest and into the Ohio valley which could whiten alot of areas from the eastern Dakotas down into MN, IA, IL, WI and possibly along and more so north of the Ohio river into PA/WVA..............Which doesnt even account for MI who will probably see the most from the systems and added Lake effect............Farther out i wont even mention at this point untill later tonight or early tomorrow so i can see if the models hold up on a few more possibilities..................

[Colin]

Sounds good ... will be paying close attention to this developing situation!

[luke42]

I first heard of this potential storm today and I am a little excited about it. The only thing I will not like about it is the cold. The snow may be a little early, but heck, we already saw snow once this year, and that was the beginning of this month! Our local TV meteorologist has made mention of the pattern change and hinted at a possible storm, but the NWS is really making it sound promising. But, it's a little too early to tell whether this storm will happen or not.

[mathias1979]

Am I reading this right? The Low actually moves from SW PA on Day 6 to the UP of MI on Day 7? That's one hell of a negative tilt.

-Matt

[JCT777]

Am I reading this right? The Low actually moves from SW PA on Day 6 to the UP of MI on Day 7? That's one hell of a negative tilt.

-Matt

If that is correct, I agree it is an amazing negative tilt! You won't often see THAT kind of storm track! :o

[Stormsfury]

Am I reading this right? The Low actually moves from SW PA on Day 6 to the UP of MI on Day 7? That's one hell of a negative tilt.

-Matt

Major occlusion if the last night's EURO verifies. Quite a setup probably reminiscent of the setup in November 1950 (don't have any maps) Great Appalachain Snowstorm. It was colder in Atlanta, GA than many locales in the NE.

November 1950 (25th) - The HIGH in ATL was 17º and the LOW was 3º.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/cgi-bin/xmc ... &year=1950