C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

[Shoshana]

For some reason our weather radio went off with a severe thunderstorm warning. But the warning is for N Williamson County and we're in Travis Co...

Weird. It's SAME enabled too...

Wonder if we'll get any rain?

On another note, the skunks are happily digging holes in the yard but you know, as long as we don't have another skunking I don't care much.

[Shoshana]

LCRA tells water customers to prepare for cuts

By Asher Price | Friday, October 2, 2009, 01:03 PM

Lower Colorado River Authority officials told water customers Friday to prepare for a 35 percent cut in their use.

The LCRA board could declare the drought the worst-ever at its Oct. 21 meeting. That would mean an immediate and total cut of water to downriver farmers and give water customers about 90 days to start cutting their use by 35 percent. The possibility of such cuts was floated at the board’s September meeting.

“We want to make sure there’s enough water supply if the drought continues,” Karen Bondy, LCRA’s manager of river services, told customers at the LCRA’s Redbud Center. “Hopefully we won’t have to implement pro rata curtailment. We’re all doing our rain dances here, but we want to be prepared if the drought continues.”

Despite recent rains, the river system continues to suffer from the drought. Lakes Travis and Buchanan, which reached a low-point of storage of 786,165 acre-feet on Sept. 10, the lowest since a 1964 drought, now have a combined storage of 793,000 acre-feet. That’s about 40 percent of capacity.

Under the management plan, the LCRA must wait until the combined storage of the Highland Lakes falls below 600,000 acre-feet before it can make pro rata water supply cuts to all its customers, which include cities and industrial facilities. September rains have cut the chances the lakes will reach that trigger. According to the most updated modeling, released Oct. 1, the lakes have a 4 percent chance of reaching the 600,000 acre-feet trigger by May 1, and a 30 percent by Aug. 1. (This August, modelers said that if drought conditions persisted, there was a 10 percent chance they’d meet the 600,000 figure by May and a 40 percent chance by next August.)

But the river authority has signaled that it won’t wait for that trigger to be reached.

The LCRA in August asked its customers to implement mandatory outdoor water restrictions, which were aimed at cutting water use by 25 percent. Should the LCRA call for a 35 percent cut across the basin, it would effectively be asking customers to slice away an additional 10 percent of their average use. Strategies in that case could include further limiting the length of time residents could water their lawns or stricter enforcement of watering restrictions. An LCRA study of how other parts of the country managed dwindling water supplies during drought found strategies included special drought-period water use rates and bans on filling of residential swimming pools.

Austin would be somewhat insulated from an LCRA-mandated cut since the city has its own water rights. However, because of the negligible amount of water trickling into the river, at least a portion of its water comes from LCRA, and that portion would be subject to the pro rata cut. Most of all, the cut would affect cities such as Cedar Park, Leander, Burnet and Marble Falls, along with industrial users up and down the basin that rely on LCRA for their water.

Some customers already meet that 35 percent standard.

Kerry Spradley, the president of Windermere Oaks Water Supply Corp., which provides water to 232 homes in Burnet County, said the supplier is now capping water use at 7,000 gallons per home per month. He estimates that amounts to a 60 percent cut over normal use.

LCRA staff could order customers to use 35 percent less water than in 2008, the last dry year for which the river authority has water use records. It would give customers 30 days to appeal that edict, and then 60 days to submit plans to the LCRA about how they will meet that water use cut.

The river authority is considering allowing trading of allotments, so someone who is struggling to meet their 35 percent water use cut can buy water from a water customer who has had no problem meeting the cut, said Mark Jordan, manager of river management.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

TXC029-091-209-032245-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0116.091003T2051Z-091003T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
351 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN BEXAR COUNTY...
COMAL COUNTY...
HAYS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT.

* AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT EXTENDED FROM LEON SPRINGS NORTHEASTWARD TO STARTZVILLE AND
KYLE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RAINFALL RATES
WERE ESTIMATED AT 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR.

A TRAINED OBSERVER NEAR SPRING BRANCH IN COMAL COUNTY HAS REPORTED
2.90 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 90 MINUTES.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
506 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

TXC021-055-091-149-177-187-209-040000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0117.091003T2206Z-091004T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
506 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN BASTROP COUNTY...
CALDWELL COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTY...
FAYETTE COUNTY...
NORTHERN GONZALES COUNTY...
GUADALUPE COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN HAYS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN AN AREA
BETWEEN NEW BRAUNFELS...BASTROP...LA GRANGE AND GONZALES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE COMMON OVER THE ADVISED
AREA...WITH SPOTTY TOTALS NEAR THREE INCHES CAUSING FLOODING OF
CREEKS...STREAMS...SOME ROADS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC021-149-040215-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0047.091004T0011Z-091004T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
711 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BASTROP COUNTY...
FAYETTE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.

* AT 708 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN BASTROP AND
NORTHWEST FAYETTE COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA AND COMBINE WITH
RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SMITHVILLE...ROSANKY...LA GRANGE AND FAYETTEVILLE.

[Portastorm]

In San Antonio for a work conference. Had an INCREDIBLE storm around 3 am with about a dozen near-miss (or hit) lightning strikes downtown. Several inches of rain with the usual San Antonio flooding. The cloud-to-ground strikes continued for nearly 30 minutes. Sounded like artillery from Fort Sam Houston!!

[srainhoutx]

Stay safe over there Port.

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/04/09 1106Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1045Z LIDDICK
.
LOCATION...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...RAPIDLY COOLING CELLS OVER WEBB/DAMMIT COUNTIES
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IMAGERY SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING
CELLS OVER WEBB/DAMMIT COUNTIES HAS COOLED TO -77C BETWEEN 0945Z AND
1045Z. ESTIMATES ARE 2.0"-3.0" IN SOME AREAS IN THAT TIME GIVEN THE RAPID
COOLING OF THE CELLS AND PW VALUES AROUND 2.1" PER GOES SOUNDER/GPS.
GIVEN MOISTURE AND CELL RAINFALL PRODUCTION INT HE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...EXPECTING RATES OF 3.0"-4.0"/HR WILL BE LIKELY AS THE CELLS MOVE
EWD THROUGH S CNTRL TX.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THE LONGER TERM FUTURE WOULD BE IF THE CONVECTION
INVOF WILSON/BEXAR WOULD HANG UP AND EVEN MERGE WITH THE NEW CONVECTION
SOME AREAS COULD SEE RATES GREATER THAN 4.0"/HR. POTENTIAL MERGER AREAS
COULD INCLUDE SOME AREAS INVOF KARNES/GOLIAD/BEE/REFUGIO COUNTY THAT
SAW 3.0"-6.0" OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/04/09 1211Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1200Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...S TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...OLAF MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE EJECTION ACROSS S TX...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST SHORT WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
TOPS HEADING FOR AREA MOSTLY SOUTH OF CURRENT ACTIVE CONVECTION BUT ALSO
HEADING FOR AREAS EARLIER LAST EVENING THAT GOT HEAVY RAIN FROM CONVECTIVE
TOPS IN THE MCMULLEN/JIM WELLS TO LIVE OAK/SAN PATRICIO COUNTY AREA.
THOSE AREAS VERY VULNERABLE TO ADDITIONAL HVY RAIN WITH CURRENT SHORT
WAVE AND COLD TOPS APPROACHING. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES IN PLACE AT 2.2"
TO 2.5" AT NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/sp ... 41211.html

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
839 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

TXC029-041500-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0053.000000T0000Z-091004T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BEXAR TX-
839 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
BEXAR COUNTY...

AT 830 AM CDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER BEXAR COUNTY AT
830 AM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING COULD STILL CAUSE
FLOODING AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH
10 AM.

AS OF 830 AM CDT THIS MORNING...5.42 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT
SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS HAS BROKEN THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL AT SAN ANTONIO FOR OCTOBER 4TH. THE OLD RECORD WAS
5.29 INCHES ON OCTOBER 4...1942.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE TIMBERWOOD PARK...THE
DOMINION...LEON SPRINGS...HOLLYWOOD PARK...FAIR OAKS RANCH AND CROSS
MOUNTAIN.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Update...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
955 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2009

...VALID 15Z SUN OCT 04 2009 - 12Z MON OCT 05 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SE PSX 15 NE KRP 40 N RBO 45 W VCT 35 NW VCT 15 NNW 5R5
10 ENE LBX 30 SE LBX 30 SE PSX.

THE ONGOING MERGING OF CNVCTV CELLS INVOF THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX
COAST COULD RESULT IN INTENSE RNFL RATES AS AN IMPRESSIVE NWD MSTR
FLUX OFF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO SUSTAINS THE EVENT. SUSPECT THIS
AREA WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ENDING THE
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RNFL HERE. QUICK 2.00 INCH AMTS AND/OR
TOTALS APCHG 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THAT TIME.



SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N 05F 20 WSW LNC 4F4 30 NW ELD 35 WSW UTA 40 WNW MSL MDQ
20 WSW DNN 15 SSW RMG 15 ESE BHM 15 E TCL 45 SW GTR 35 N HKS
20 E MLU 25 W IER 20 SW LFK 20 NE AUS 25 NNW T82 35 N 6R9
25 N 05F.

WHILE SOME IFFINESS REMAINS ON THE EXACT LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF
THE MAX RNFL AXIS..SGFNT RNFL TOTALS ARE LIKELY ALONG AN E/W
ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS
SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THE WLYS INCLDG THE
UPPER REMNANTS OF OLAF FIRE ACTVTY HERE. HI MSTR AVBLTY PER
OBSERVED AND FCST PWS..A CONTG NWD MSTR FLUX OFF THE GULF AND FVBL
DIV ALOFT ARE ALL SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE EVENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CNVCTV CELLS REPEATING OVR LOCALIZED AREAS. MAJOR
CONCERN HERE WILL BE THE DURATION OF THE EVENT WITH PDS OF MDT TO
HVY RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR UP TO 6 TO 12 HOURS
RESULTING IN RUNOFF PROBLEMS. AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
AN COUPLE OF HOURS AND/OR ADNL TOTALS OF 4.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

KORTY

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I believe we got 5.42 inches of rain here in SAT. From about 3 a.m. to 7 a.m. it was quite an event. Dang, wish I would have had a video camera as the lightning show would have been entertaining to post on Youtube.

Some other guests at my hotel said they saw the Tower of the Americas get hit TWICE by C-to-G lightning.

[Shoshana]

Wow... here we got .3"

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009

.UPDATE...AT 11 AM...COLD FRONT NEAR A PARIS..SAN ANGELO..FORT STOCKTON
LINE PUSHING SOUTHWARD HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 15 TO 20 MPH AND WILL
CONTINUE THAT SPEED OR SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER
MIXING AND RESISTANCE. THE FRONT WILL MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. AS
THE FRONT STALLS..IT WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY THAT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CURRENT UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAVY RAIN
MENTION FOR THIS EVENING.

[Portastorm]

OK, I'm back in AUS now so hopefully I can monitor whatever "event" we have. I'll tell you this much, if it's anything like that San Antonio experience, Austin's in for a rocking night! And I'm not talking about the music clubs.

There were still areas of power outages in San Antonio today, some 48 hours after that storm. The out-of-state folks I talked to at this conference we're amazed at the amount of rain that fell. I told them: "we do everything big in Texas!"

[Shoshana]

We (my family including my Nana) once hit deep water on loop 410 near San Pedro Ave, lost all electric in the car, and spent the rest of the night in the lobby of a hotel with a bunch of drunk cowboys ... that was our "Welcome to Texas"!

[Portastorm]

Busy night ahead for us ...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
513 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-091015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
513 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING AS MUCH AS FIVE INCHES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
THESE STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREAT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NORMANDY TO LEON SPRINGS TO COUPLAND
INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[Portastorm]

All in all not a bad frontal passage. Probably about an inch of rain here in SW Austin with a little bit of lightning/thunder. Temps have dropped from 81 down to the mid 60s though. First real front of the fall ... I love it!

[lrak]

Well its reached Corpus Christi with light rain and cool moist air and I'm glad, don't like dry air, "itchy". The water vapor is a bit unique to me, I haven't seen it look like this before. Maybe looks more "predicable?"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[Portastorm]

Scattered showers in Austin this morning in between bouts of dense fog. A very damp day outside and it looks like we could see another half inch of rainfall today.

It is amazing to me how much our weather has changed in the last two months!

[Shoshana]

It is weird.

We got .4" of rain yesterday. Our yard looks funny - grass, weeds, mushrooms and bare spots!

[Portastorm]

It feels absolutely GLORIOUS outside today here in downtown AUS.

Close to lunchtime, temps in the low 60s, breezy north winds, and a sky that is clearing the clouds and promises to be cloud free later today. They call it "Chamber of Commerce" weather!