Halloween AFDs

[KatDaddy]

Something cheerful to add.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
745 PM CST MON OCT 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS A BIT OF A CAP IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. PW`S ARE LOW RUNNING NEAR 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DECENT GRADIENT IN PLACE SO AM NOT EXPECTING
WINDS TO DECREASE MUCH OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MARINE AREA...WILL BUMP
THE SCEC TO AN SCA FROM 20-60 NM OFFSHORE AS BUILDING SEAS
OFFSHORE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE 20-60 WATERS. REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. THINK RAIN CHANCE WILL REMAIN VERY LOW BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL MENTION OF POPS FROM THE NORTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS. ONLY UPDATE
WITH CHANGES WILL BE THE MARINE. ISSUED A CLIMATE PNS EARLIER THIS
EVENING. SOME RATHER HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS DURING OCTOBER WITH
22.57 INCHES AT DACUS AND 21.27 INCHES IN LIBERTY LEADING THE
PACK. MOST SITES ACROSS SE TX HAVE EXCEEDED ANNUAL RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF MONTHS TO GO. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 308 PM CST MON OCT 30 2006)

DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF LIFT FROM NEAR EWX TO CLL TO SHV...SO FAR LOOKS LIKE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CORRIDOR WITH SOME VIRGA THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
FROM THIS FEATURE. DRYLINE AND PACIFIC FRONT INTERSECT AROUND SPS
WITH THE DRYLINE TRAILING SW TO NEAR FST-6R6. PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...CANADIAN
COLD FRONT NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER. LEAD VORT MAX IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH THE MAIN CENTER OVER WESTERN NM. THIS LEAD VORT MAX
TO TRACK EAST AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE GPS IPWV DATA
INDICATING ABOUT .3" INCREASE SINCE 12Z. MODELS PROG 1.1-1.4" PW
TO OVERLAY THE REGION ON A WEAKENING LLJ 12Z TUESDAY. AS THE LEAD
S/W EXITS WE COULD GET A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE AREA. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
WIND PROFILES AND CAPE. NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS PANNING OUT SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF SEVERE IN ZFP...WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO
MENTION THIS MARGINAL THREAT. AS FOR THE SWEETSPOT OF THE
FORECAST...HALLOWEEN. AROUND 00Z THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTH IN THE COLLEGE STATION-CROCKETT AREA AND CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH MOVING INTO THE LIBERTY-HOUSTON METRO-COLUMBUS AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE LACKING INGREDIENT INITIALLY IN
THE CONCOCTION...PERHAPS AFTER THE LITTLE GHOULS AND GOBLINS HAVE
PUT THEIR SUGAR-LADEN BODIES DOWN TO DREAM OF VAMPIRES AND
WITCHES THE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 06-12Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION.

[CajunMama]

Nice to see your guys have a sense of humor. The Lake Charles guys wit is as dry as toast.