Severe Weather & Heavy Rain Possible for SE Texas

[southerngale]

I think we may see our first threat of severe weather this year. I don't think we have before now, have we? :?
Seems like the rain we've received has just been plain old boring rain. I'd like a good thunderstorm, but without any tornadoes. :o


SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
155 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE AREA.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FORECASTED VALUES. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS STILL HANGING BACK IN KANSAS. THE FRONT
WILL NOT MAKE ANY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE KICKS EAST. 50H TROF WILL SLOWLY
DEEPEN AS IT HEADS EAST WITH THE TROF AXIS CROSSING SE TX SOMETIME
SAT AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF VORT LOBES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO
STRONG SFC AND 85H CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC AND 85H FRONTS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SE TX WILL ALSO LIE IN A
STRENGTHENING 90 KT RRQ BY 12Z SAT MORNING. TIMING OF THE VORT LOBES
IS DIFFICULT...BUT FEEL THE FIRST ONE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH A SECOND STRONGER VORT ON SAT MORNING.

TWO CONCERNS...SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN

1) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE
EXISTS AS A LAYER OF DRY AIR IS EVIDENT AROUND 900 MB. WET BULB ZERO
IS RATHER HIGH SO HAIL IS NOT AS LIKELY...BUT COULD STILL OCCUR.
THERE IS ENOUGH WIND SHEAR PRESENT THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.

2) FEEL THE MAIN THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT ORIENTED WITH THE UPPER FLOW...HIGH PW'S
NEAR TWICE THE NORMAL...STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TENDS TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
FOR SATURDAY. FLASH FLOOD DECISION TREE INDICATES THAT THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS MINIMAL BUT THAT ISOLATED RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 4
INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL STILL CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS. WILL UPDATE
THE HWOHGX BY 4 PM WITH THE DETAILS.

MUCH COLDER AIR ON SUN/MON MORNINGS WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE UK AMD ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NEXT WEEKS 50H
TROF WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS/FRI. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
GOING FOR NOW. 43/46

[ColdFront77]

Yes, the first two Severe Thunderstorm Watches of 2003 were issued this afternoon... on the 45th day of the year.

Perhaps you read the thread I posted on this in this forum.

[vbhoutex]

We've already had one line just developing go through Houston this afternoon. It should be well on the way to severe levels by the time it gets to you in Beaumont. Past that I can already see the first of the two vorts developiong out in the western hill country. I'd say their timing of midnight sounds like a good bet. I guess we're going to have a long night! :o Then of course there is tomorrow when the second should come through in ahead of the actual front.

[southerngale]

Yep, my alert went off a little while ago...severe thunderstorm warning for Jefferson County and then it went off again...severe thunderstorm warning for Orange County. I'm about 1 mile (or less) north of Jefferson County and it wasn't very bad here. We had a thunderstorm with a little wind but no big deal. They said our best chance for severe weather is late tonight into tomorrow.