April 27 tornado outbreak - Service assessment suggestions

[CrazyC83]

It is almost certain that a Service Assessment team will be assembled (if it hasn't already) on what went right and wrong during that catastrophic tornado outbreak. I wonder if you all have any ideas on what the NWS and local agencies did right and wrong during it and what could be done to prevent a future outbreak from having such a high death toll.

Here are some of my thoughts:

1) The most important thing is that most houses in the regions affected do not have basements, and in most cases, they are not easily (or at all) constructable. When you have an EF4-5 tornado hitting, even solid well-built houses will not withstand the winds and will likely be destroyed or flattened. Safe rooms need to be encouraged and developed for at least close availability, if not for every house. New residential developments should be designed to include such, and existing areas should see nearby rooms available able to withstand 250 mph winds. Such is imperative in mobile home parks where they cannot withstand even weaker tornadoes and obliteration is virtually guaranteed. Only deep underground or extremely strong rooms would have prevented such a high death toll.

2) I don't see anything that went obviously wrong with the SPC or NWS offices. Although I missed most of the warnings on April 27, it appears that the offices did a good job considering the extreme situation. Most of the killer tornadoes were in moderate or high risk areas and the watches were among the most strongly worded ever issued. It is likely that most people did what they could - but it wasn't enough given the extreme nature of the outbreak.

3) The vast majority of the fatalities occured in the daylight hours, primarily late afternoon and early evening. As a result, being caught asleep is not a real factor here.

[vbhoutex]

It is almost certain that a Service Assessment team will be assembled (if it hasn't already) on what went right and wrong during that catastrophic tornado outbreak. I wonder if you all have any ideas on what the NWS and local agencies did right and wrong during it and what could be done to prevent a future outbreak from having such a high death toll.

Here are some of my thoughts:

1) The most important thing is that most houses in the regions affected do not have basements, and in most cases, they are not easily (or at all) constructable. When you have an EF4-5 tornado hitting, even solid well-built houses will not withstand the winds and will likely be destroyed or flattened. Safe rooms need to be encouraged and developed for at least close availability, if not for every house. New residential developments should be designed to include such, and existing areas should see nearby rooms available able to withstand 250 mph winds. Such is imperative in mobile home parks where they cannot withstand even weaker tornadoes and obliteration is virtually guaranteed. Only deep underground or extremely strong rooms would have prevented such a high death toll.

2) I don't see anything that went obviously wrong with the SPC or NWS offices. Although I missed most of the warnings on April 27, it appears that the offices did a good job considering the extreme situation. Most of the killer tornadoes were in moderate or high risk areas and the watches were among the most strongly worded ever issued. It is likely that most people did what they could - but it wasn't enough given the extreme nature of the outbreak.

3) The vast majority of the fatalities occured in the daylight hours, primarily late afternoon and early evening. As a result, being caught asleep is not a real factor here.

I have seen it talked about and I believe one of the factors in the higher loss of life was the fact that there were actually 2 rounds of storms and the first round knocked out electricity to many that don't have or carry a weather radio with them so many may not have heard the warnings for the later round of storms since they didn't have a radio or tv available. I know it sounds big brotherish, but maybe the government needs to look into a way to provide everyone with a weather radio. It is either something like that or another mode of warning that wouldn't be knocked out if the electricity is off. Obviously something like this wouldn't be cheap, but can we put a price on human life? Same thing about sheltering. I think mobile home parks should be required to have enough shelter to accommodate their residents in the event of severe weather. Of course the rest of the equation is proper weather education for the masses and we all know you can't force people to learn or to care. JMHO

[brunota2003]

Perhaps there could be two things added? All mobile homes must be required to have a weather radio built into them (when sold new) with back up battery compartments, and all mobile home parks must have some kind of warning system in place in the event of severe weather.

[Dave]

1. Living in the ohio river valley tornado alley we do everything in our power to promote each citizen to obtain a weather radio (S.A.M.E.) and if they can't afford one or not sure what to buy the fire depts, rescue units, and/or the EMA keeps a supply of them in our stock piles and give them out free to anyone who asks.

2. Our tornado warning sirens are on automatic relays that switch to either a battery or generator backup just in case the electricity fails.

3. We provide shelters for people in all towns and especially close to mobile home parks so they are within walking distance to one.

4. When severe weather threatens IL, KY, MI, or OH our own weather team, 911 dispatch center, & all ema personnel monitor the weather 24 x 7 until any and all threats have dissipated. Every person in the various agencies are trained and retrained in severe weather and are prepared to alert the citizens of the county via police, fire, rescue bands & ham radio repeaters if threatening weather is detected. Plus TV stations 5, 9, 12, & 19 in Cincinnati Ohio, all radio stations in the SE Indiana, SW Ohio, and N Kentucky area + cable tv come on the air non stop until the severe weather has passed out of the KILN (Wilmington OH) district.

Out here we use NWS Indianapolis, NWS Louisville, first to gather the information because our county is the western most county for KILN Wilmington so what hits Indianapolis IN & Louisville KY will more than likely hit us before it hits Cincinnati and second we send our weather information into Wilmington OH NWS to our east so they have a ground view of what's going on west of them.

Basements aren't mandatory but many homes have them...I don't...but my house was built in 1942 and no thought was ever put into having one by my grandfather...I have an inner closet & a ditch approx 250 feet from my back porch. The newer homes here in our county almost all have basements but we sit on bedrock so a basement is a natural thing here.

The biggest problem we have is convincing the public that severe weather is dangerous and should be taken seriously. The old timers know this but some of the younger generation 35 and under seem to pass off the dangers these storms that roll through here, laugh about them and go on. We can't stop human nature but we can do our best to warn people...it's up to them after they've received the warnings to seek shelter or not.

We take severe weather serious out here...very serious.

[WeatherGuesser]

Perhaps there could be two things added? All mobile homes must be required to have a weather radio built into them (when sold new) with back up battery compartments, and all mobile home parks must have some kind of warning system in place in the event of severe weather.

http://kokomotribune.com/local/x5188835 ... dios/print

http://radio2020.wordpress.com/2008/02/ ... -kentucky/

http://www.wkrg.com/weather/article/bil ... 7_5-32-pm/

http://www.wkyt.com/wymtnews/headlines/15581647.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42888836/ns ... ile-homes/


First thing they have to do is stop those friggin' Amber Alerts from being sent by NOAA. Broadcast radio and TV is fine, so are roadside signs. But a weather radio should be for emergencies only.

[CrazyC83]

I heard somewhere that NOAA weather radio transmitters went down in the initial squall line? If that is true, in such situations, they need mobile transmitters if more severe weather is likely. Every WFO should have at least 1 or 2 that can be dispatched in emergency situations.

[brunota2003]

I heard somewhere that NOAA weather radio transmitters went down in the initial squall line? If that is true, in such situations, they need mobile transmitters if more severe weather is likely. Every WFO should have at least 1 or 2 that can be dispatched in emergency situations.

Not sure...in extremely strong winds, it is possible...or if the power goes out and the back up power fails to kick in. I also believe one of the stations took a direct hit from a tornado, if I remember right?

[CrazyC83]

Now after yesterday's catastrophe, more questions to be answered:

1) Why, with the devastation so fresh on peoples' minds, did even more people lose their lives?

2) Were people taking proper shelter? How many people have basements there?

3) Power was not out at the time, and sirens did go off, so that cannot be an issue.

The only issue I can see is that safe rooms NEED to be increased DRAMATICALLY. I think the business of them will take off.

[CajunMama]

Crazy, for some reason this area doesn't have many homes with basements. Homeowners are adults and you can't force them to have a weather radio or safe rooms or basements. This was possibly an older section of town? I don't know. Where the houses on blocks off the ground? I don't know. I know this is tragic but you can't force an adult to do what you suggest they do.

[CrazyC83]

Crazy, for some reason this area doesn't have many homes with basements. Homeowners are adults and you can't force them to have a weather radio or safe rooms or basements. This was possibly an older section of town? I don't know. Where the houses on blocks off the ground? I don't know. I know this is tragic but you can't force an adult to do what you suggest they do.

I never asked to mandate it, but people should REALLY be thinking about it. I agree that it should not be government-mandated. It is just common sense among homeowners. Maybe a tax incentive could be introduced, for example they could be sales tax-exempt or tax-deductible? (although that is complicated indeed)

Public buildings owned by governments are all they can really mandate.

[OverlandHurricane]

I know this is tragic but you can't force an adult to do what you suggest they do.

Structural aspects can absolutely be mandated, through state building codes. Ask builders in California whether they have to fit to their earthquake codes. Now the debate as to whether building codes should be modified to mandate safe rooms/cellars/basements is a different argument for another day, but it can absolutely be done.

[CrazyC83]

I know this is tragic but you can't force an adult to do what you suggest they do.

Structural aspects can absolutely be mandated, through state building codes. Ask builders in California whether they have to fit to their earthquake codes. Now the debate as to whether building codes should be modified to mandate safe rooms/cellars/basements is a different argument for another day, but it can absolutely be done.

True, building codes can be increased, but that is at the onus of the developers, and can be hard to enforce. It would be VERY expensive though to retrofit houses to fully survive EF5 tornadoes or Category 5 hurricanes. Housing costs would increase substantially.

[vbhoutex]

I know this is tragic but you can't force an adult to do what you suggest they do.

Structural aspects can absolutely be mandated, through state building codes. Ask builders in California whether they have to fit to their earthquake codes. Now the debate as to whether building codes should be modified to mandate safe rooms/cellars/basements is a different argument for another day, but it can absolutely be done.

Just a couple of thoughts here. Do we mandate retrofits? Who pays for it if the homeowner can't?(try insurance? in order to lessen their losses?). How do we determine where these must be done? Just some random thoughts. Definitely sending prayers up for all those affected by these storms in Minnesota and Missouri.

[brunota2003]

I don't know how it would be done, but like I said before, new mobile homes can be changed to an extent, in the addition of a cheap NOAA weather radio...along with mobile home parks having to have some kind of alert system.

Safe rooms for regular homes cannot be forced, but something has to be done...some sort of incentive. Perhaps a decrease in the cost of insurance, or something.

[CrazyC83]

According to the NWS Aware report, it should be out late this fall. I'm sure one for the Joplin tornado will follow shortly after, unless they decide not to do one since the findings would be very similar.

I think public response and building standards will be the key findings. I don't see anything obvious the NWS did wrong there, all of their offices and the SPC seemed to do very well with the outbreak and I don't think there is much more they could have done. The key problem is that it is very difficult to survive an EF5 tornado without a reinforced storm shelter, and even an EF4 tornado you definitely have to be underground at least. And basements are few and far between in many areas, including most of the South.

The "interior room on the lowest floor" shelter works very well for tornadoes up to EF2, and is somewhat effective in EF3 tornadoes if well-prepared, but beyond that it doesn't work. Just a rare tragic combination. Did people actually do that and still get killed?

Of course some of the deaths were in mobile homes which are unsurvivable in any intense tornado, and some were in vehicles or outdoors as well. Also it is certain that a few people did stupid things (like went out to look and watch it only to have it come right over them and kill them). But how many? Will we ever know?