Texas Fall 2021

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#721 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:29 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntx and wxman are very right about the cold water near alaska. If there is a low sitting over the top of Alaska, does not bode well for the southern plains or for -EPO. I think an Oshtok low (sp?), which hangs just west of Alaska is a good/better sign for us and the EPO. Something to look for.

Meanwhile, here in Denver, next 7 days we will have temps around 65 for high. 16-18 degrees above normal.

An Alaska Ridge might do the trick here as well . . .
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#722 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:34 am

6z GFS is making me very concerned, the crazy post is on the Texas Winter 2021-2022 Forum.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#723 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:51 am

Pretty good temp bust. The forecast called for 26, the real temp was 20.9.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#724 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:52 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Pretty good temp bust. The forecast called for 26, the real temp was 20.9.


Those type of temp busts never happen here lol
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#725 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:03 am

Recorded 26°F this morning
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#726 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:05 pm

Starting to see some “consistency” in the very long range on the gfs of a cold air dump that would likely lend itself to a southern plains winter storm. The individual solutions themselves don’t matter at this point, but it seems like a general indicator that the large scale pattern is going to shift in a way that’s more conducive to the setups we would need to get some action.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#727 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:46 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Starting to see some “consistency” in the very long range on the gfs of a cold air dump that would likely lend itself to a southern plains winter storm. The individual solutions themselves don’t matter at this point, but it seems like a general indicator that the large scale pattern is going to shift in a way that’s more conducive to the setups we would need to get some action.


I do agree there is a pointer towards a dip in the jet that may allow some cold air in. But also do want to point out the GEFS (ensembles) do not agree with the OP and is torchy.

We just need the EPO to relax and not be so positive. There is so much cold air up there, it just needs to not be against us and we'd be rockin.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#728 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:03 pm

Boo! But until the SPV relaxes and we get some help from the Pacific this is probably a copy and paste type map. Looking out longer range, the MJO might be of some help?

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#729 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:07 pm

Ntxw wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Starting to see some “consistency” in the very long range on the gfs of a cold air dump that would likely lend itself to a southern plains winter storm. The individual solutions themselves don’t matter at this point, but it seems like a general indicator that the large scale pattern is going to shift in a way that’s more conducive to the setups we would need to get some action.


I do agree there is a pointer towards a dip in the jet that may allow some cold air in. But also do want to point out the GEFS (ensembles) do not agree with the OP and is torchy.

We just need the EPO to relax and not be so positive. There is so much cold air up there, it just needs to not be against us and we'd be rockin.


12z GEFS Ensemble Member #13 says otherwise.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#730 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:11 am

Looking so hard for something positive in the models for the last 3 days, and there is nothing there. Might take a break till Monday lol.

Keys start way out in the pacific. None of those said keys are working in our favor.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#731 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:26 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Looking so hard for something positive in the models for the last 3 days, and there is nothing there. Might take a break till Monday lol.

Keys start way out in the pacific. None of those said keys are working in our favor.


Yeah. Texas could even go into a pretty bad drought by the summer but I’m really hoping that’s not the case.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#732 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:11 am

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Looking so hard for something positive in the models for the last 3 days, and there is nothing there. Might take a break till Monday lol.

Keys start way out in the pacific. None of those said keys are working in our favor.


Yeah. Texas could even go into a pretty bad drought by the summer but I’m really hoping that’s not the case.

Yeah it doesn’t look great right now. Ensemble support is pretty lacking so the op solutions that sometimes show favorable setups don’t hold much water.

No reason to get invested in the ups and downs though. Last winter looked like it would be another dud for most of the state (outside of central tx) until feb came around. It always looks boring until it magically doesn’t. The tropics are the same way.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#733 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:51 am

Based on the 00z ensembles, maybe some positive changes by mid-Dec. There is pretty good agreement that we will see a strengthening Pacific Jet streak in the WPAC around mid-month. Now, we need that to extend out into the Pacific, with a more equatorward shift than we have seen so far this winter, drive wave flux poleward, and shake things up enough to deliver some cold air... so we are almost there! (lol) There is some support for this from the MJO but can it overcome the Nina background state that will try to interfere with it as it tries to amplify and propagate?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#734 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:31 pm

In a bonafide -PDO Nina I would prefer to test the waters with a negative PNA and cold spilling into the west. We can be the eastern clip of it than the current +pna slop.

Reminder we will move to the official winter thread on Dec 1st. Some have already posted there for possible December clues.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#735 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 27, 2021 12:44 pm

Ntxw wrote:In a bonafide -PDO Nina I would prefer to test the waters with a negative PNA and cold spilling into the west. We can be the eastern clip of it than the current +pna slop.

Reminder we will move to the official winter thread on Dec 1st. Some have already posted there for possible December clues.

I can confirm that the waters south of Alaska has warmed up lately, so maybe there is a chance for a powerful December Cold Wave & maybe February 2022?
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#736 Postby Ntxw » Sat Nov 27, 2021 1:17 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:In a bonafide -PDO Nina I would prefer to test the waters with a negative PNA and cold spilling into the west. We can be the eastern clip of it than the current +pna slop.

Reminder we will move to the official winter thread on Dec 1st. Some have already posted there for possible December clues.

I can confirm that the waters south of Alaska has warmed up lately, so maybe there is a chance for a powerful December Cold Wave & maybe February 2022?


The cold waters in itself is a reflection of zonal flow setting pattern. It is a staple of second near coupled La Ninas -PDO. The last one being 2011-2012. 2017-2018 was during warm PDO period. This doesn't mean there can't be immense cold dumps with it, only at the moment it's well coupled with ++EPO. The reason for the long range model of cold and then backing off is the +EPO verifying stronger than the models anticipate. It's hard to rid of such a pool of anomalous waters in a single season.

It's not just going to dump cold just because, something has to change it up. Be it SSW, MJO amping up moving, large wave-break coming from Asia etc, anything before we can believe it may come to fruition.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#737 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:46 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:In a bonafide -PDO Nina I would prefer to test the waters with a negative PNA and cold spilling into the west. We can be the eastern clip of it than the current +pna slop.

Reminder we will move to the official winter thread on Dec 1st. Some have already posted there for possible December clues.

I can confirm that the waters south of Alaska has warmed up lately, so maybe there is a chance for a powerful December Cold Wave & maybe February 2022?


The cold waters in itself is a reflection of zonal flow setting pattern. It is a staple of second near coupled La Ninas -PDO. The last one being 2011-2012. 2017-2018 was during warm PDO period. This doesn't mean there can't be immense cold dumps with it, only at the moment it's well coupled with ++EPO. The reason for the long range model of cold and then backing off is the +EPO verifying stronger than the models anticipate. It's hard to rid of such a pool of anomalous waters in a single season.

It's not just going to dump cold just because, something has to change it up. Be it SSW, MJO amping up moving, large wave-break coming from Asia etc, anything before we can believe it may come to fruition.


Would be an extreme case if the EPO is positive for the entire winter? It MUST become Negative at some point!
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#738 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:In a bonafide -PDO Nina I would prefer to test the waters with a negative PNA and cold spilling into the west. We can be the eastern clip of it than the current +pna slop.

Reminder we will move to the official winter thread on Dec 1st. Some have already posted there for possible December clues.

I can confirm that the waters south of Alaska has warmed up lately, so maybe there is a chance for a powerful December Cold Wave & maybe February 2022?


The cold waters in itself is a reflection of zonal flow setting pattern. It is a staple of second near coupled La Ninas -PDO. The last one being 2011-2012. 2017-2018 was during warm PDO period. This doesn't mean there can't be immense cold dumps with it, only at the moment it's well coupled with ++EPO. The reason for the long range model of cold and then backing off is the +EPO verifying stronger than the models anticipate. It's hard to rid of such a pool of anomalous waters in a single season.

It's not just going to dump cold just because, something has to change it up. Be it SSW, MJO amping up moving, large wave-break coming from Asia etc, anything before we can believe it may come to fruition.


Joe Bastardi tweeting today about a Stratwarm event…

“Big Stratwarm develops front 2 weeks of December Lag points toward late Dec/Jan response.”
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#739 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Nov 27, 2021 7:15 pm

Some good rains falling across North Texas. Nice to see something before some boring 70's greet us for several days next week.
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Re: Texas Fall 2021

#740 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:04 am

Winter Cancel
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