Ntxw wrote:In a bonafide -PDO Nina I would prefer to test the waters with a negative PNA and cold spilling into the west. We can be the eastern clip of it than the current +pna slop.
Reminder we will move to the official winter thread on Dec 1st. Some have already posted there for possible December clues.
I can confirm that the waters south of Alaska has warmed up lately, so maybe there is a chance for a powerful December Cold Wave & maybe February 2022?
The cold waters in itself is a reflection of zonal flow setting pattern. It is a staple of second near coupled La Ninas -PDO
. The last one being 2011-2012. 2017-2018 was during warm PDO period. This doesn't mean there can't be immense cold dumps with it, only at the moment it's well coupled with ++EPO. The reason for the long range model of cold and then backing off is the +EPO verifying stronger than the models anticipate. It's hard to rid of such a pool of anomalous waters in a single season.
It's not just going to dump cold just because, something has to change it up. Be it SSW, MJO amping up moving, large wave-break coming from Asia etc, anything before we can believe it may come to fruition.