Texas Spring 2022

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3737
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1901 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun May 22, 2022 5:40 am

Nice MCS moving across southeast TX early this morning. Looks like many areas should get at least 1 inch from this round, which is very much appreciated!
1 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1611
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1902 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sun May 22, 2022 7:45 am

Happy Fall everyone. :double:
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3899
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1903 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun May 22, 2022 8:17 am

62 here this morning, and 0.75" of rain last night! :D :flag: :lightning: :rain: :lightning: :rain:

Very nice after week of lows in the 70s and high near 100 with no rain.
1 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1338
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1904 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun May 22, 2022 10:37 am

WPC moved heaviest rain east again. But DFW still in 3-4 inch range. As long as it stays steady, I’m happy. Not sure the last time I got more than 2 inches of rain. Based on GFS and EURO, DFW may get less than this. It’s shifting south.
1 likes   

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1338
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1905 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun May 22, 2022 12:06 pm

I’m sure nobody is surprised. But, GFS says west central TX will get almost nothing. And I’m close to a bust here with maybe an inch-2.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 7847
Age: 48
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1906 Postby jasons2k » Sun May 22, 2022 12:35 pm

Woke-up to 2.44” overnight! I’ll take it :)
3 likes   

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4289
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1907 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 22, 2022 1:49 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:WPC moved heaviest rain east again. But DFW still in 3-4 inch range. As long as it stays steady, I’m happy. Not sure the last time I got more than 2 inches of rain. Based on GFS and EURO, DFW may get less than this. It’s shifting south.


Seemed like a lock given the overnight guidance. However, the 12z hi-res guidance pulls things back West for the next 48-72 hrs vs the WPC forecast. It's hard to predict precipitation placement when it is primarily driven by convective processes.
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19297
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1908 Postby Ntxw » Sun May 22, 2022 2:12 pm

I'm expecting some rain this week but will guess lower end 1-2" west of I-45. No doubt someone will get higher totals locally but grand scheme more of the same. This weekend was supposed to provide some with a good change in airmass in May that yielded basically nothing up here and to the west. That says something.

We have been fighting mid level dry air since March. Even blasting front was an uphill climb contending with it. This is the real story of this wet season.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4289
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1909 Postby bubba hotep » Sun May 22, 2022 7:40 pm

This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

Image

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3737
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1910 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun May 22, 2022 10:02 pm

bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.


Man I hope EWX is right with their rainfall total forecast for south central TX. But like Ntxw has said all spring, I would take the under on those due to the continued La Nina and unfavorable background state for TX rainfall.
0 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1776
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1911 Postby Haris » Sun May 22, 2022 10:11 pm

bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.


Not gonna lie those totals shocked me. I was thinking more 1-3
1 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3737
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1912 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun May 22, 2022 10:56 pm

Haris wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.


Not gonna lie those totals shocked me. I was thinking more 1-3


Same here. My most bullish forecast calls for widespread 2-4 inches for south central TX. 1-3 inches seems reasonable though and I would still be quite happy with that.
0 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3086
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1913 Postby Cpv17 » Sun May 22, 2022 11:56 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Haris wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.


Not gonna lie those totals shocked me. I was thinking more 1-3


Same here. My most bullish forecast calls for widespread 2-4 inches for south central TX. 1-3 inches seems reasonable though and I would still be quite happy with that.


I got a quarter inch last night and 15 miles to my east in Wharton they got 4.5”. I’m hoping for a big event here Tuesday and Wednesday.
1 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3381
Age: 21
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1914 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun May 22, 2022 11:56 pm

Tuesday is looking pretty interesting for a severe weather event in TX. Just a small slight risk for now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to enhanced at some point for wind potential, especially if the 48hr HRRR is correct, which is always up in the air at this range. Either way, should be a great week for rain across a good portion of the southern plains.
1 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

User avatar
Edwards Limestone
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 57
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:05 am
Location: San Antonio (N Bexar Co), Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1915 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon May 23, 2022 9:25 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.


Man I hope EWX is right with their rainfall total forecast for south central TX. But like Ntxw has said all spring, I would take the under on those due to the continued La Nina and unfavorable background state for TX rainfall.


I'm not really buying that EWX forecast tbh. Storms over the weekend seemed outflow-dominant and full of dry air (although a select few out west did cash in with 1-2 inches).

The Euro has been pretty stubborn over the past few days that the higher precip totals would be E and NE of us and that seems reasonable to me. Showing more like 0.75-1.5 inches for the same areas that EWX is showing 3-4 inches out in the Hill Country.

I guess we'll see but it seems like they are def leaning on the high res models.
0 likes   

HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1611
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1916 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon May 23, 2022 9:30 am

It's going to rain the next three days for sure, this I am certain.

My sprinklers ran overnight and did not stop from the fact the forecast is calling for rain........

:spam:
1 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19297
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1917 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 23, 2022 9:33 am

Edwards Limestone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:This would be big for those areas down there, esp. out in the Hill Country in the Bandera and Real counties area. Still need some big rains in West Texas and up into the Panhandle.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTZm7TEWAAAZKwW?format=jpg&name=medium

The hi-res ensemble models support this more so than the global ensembles.


Man I hope EWX is right with their rainfall total forecast for south central TX. But like Ntxw has said all spring, I would take the under on those due to the continued La Nina and unfavorable background state for TX rainfall.


I'm not really buying that EWX forecast tbh. Storms over the weekend seemed outflow-dominant and full of dry air (although a select few out west did cash in with 1-2 inches).

The Euro has been pretty stubborn over the past few days that the higher precip totals would be E and NE of us and that seems reasonable to me. Showing more like 0.75-1.5 inches for the same areas that EWX is showing 3-4 inches out in the Hill Country.

I guess we'll see but it seems like they are def leaning on the high res models.


To be fair EWX and FWD forecast maps I think we're tied to WPC qpf which since then has come down some. 1 to 2.5" or so.

I think little activity today, a few rounds of storms tomorrow will be the bulk of it. Cloudy Weds with lingering showers in Oklahoma/E and SE Tx.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4289
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1918 Postby bubba hotep » Mon May 23, 2022 10:12 am

Image
2 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
Edwards Limestone
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 57
Age: 33
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:05 am
Location: San Antonio (N Bexar Co), Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1919 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon May 23, 2022 10:59 am



Interesting...looks like the NAM could be suggesting some classic west-to-east oriented Edwards/Balcones escarpment precip training.
0 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3086
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2022

#1920 Postby Cpv17 » Mon May 23, 2022 11:53 am

WRF and FV3 look interesting for southeast Texas.
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests