Texas Summer 2022

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Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#401 Postby Edwards Limestone » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:17 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Surprise surprise. SA missed out on the rain again today. 10 inch rainfall deficit for the year keeps growing. Brutal.


It’s getting so frustrating it’s almost hilarious. The 0” QPF line is currently just north of Loop 1604. That outflow boundary running southwest this afternoon totally wiped out our instability somehow.

Just a remarkable streak of bad luck. Less than 5” of precip at SAT so far this year. Awful.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#402 Postby cstrunk » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:05 am

This Gulf low coming up in a few days seems interesting. A few people in southern/central/eastern TX may get surprised with some heavy, but localized rainfall according to the Euro.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#403 Postby gto67 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:51 am

We got 3" in Weimar and it doesn't look like it rained. The ground cracks closed somewhat.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#404 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:47 am

What a wild weather day it was yesterday in the Austin area! Outflow-palooza! Got about an inch and a quarter of liquid gold at the Portastorm Weather Center. Also lost power for more than an hour after a CG lightning bolt with ill intent struck a nearby transformer. Hoping for more rain today.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#405 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:13 pm

Edit: pretty large shift to the east now

Invest 95L. Consensus track (TVCN) makes landfall near Baffin Bay and takes CoC inland over south central TX within 72 hours.

Probably will be highly asymmetric mess with convection/moisture heavily favoring east side?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Image

Image
Last edited by Edwards Limestone on Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#406 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:24 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Surprise surprise. SA missed out on the rain again today. 10 inch rainfall deficit for the year keeps growing. Brutal.


It’s getting so frustrating it’s almost hilarious. The 0” QPF line is currently just north of Loop 1604. That outflow boundary running southwest this afternoon totally wiped out our instability somehow.

Just a remarkable streak of bad luck. Less than 5” of precip at SAT so far this year. Awful.


:x :x :x :x :x

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#407 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:34 pm

I’m expecting nothing in DFW and an east shift. We will see. Hopefully we get lucky.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#408 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:16 pm

Finally, San Antonio is getting some rain!!! I don’t even live there but this makes me happy lol
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#409 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:00 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Finally, San Antonio is getting some rain!!! I don’t even live there but this makes me happy lol


Me too! But my parents and a couple brothers live there. :D. My brother said he got 0.90", about what I got. ;)
Last edited by weatherdude1108 on Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#410 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:03 pm

Portastorm wrote:What a wild weather day it was yesterday in the Austin area! Outflow-palooza! Got about an inch and a quarter of liquid gold at the Portastorm Weather Center. Also lost power for more than an hour after a CG lightning bolt with ill intent struck a nearby transformer. Hoping for more rain today.

.
We ended up with exactly 1". I will take it! :D High of only 92 at my abode! Camp Mabry below normal for the first time in 20-something days.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#411 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:51 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Finally, San Antonio is getting some rain!!! I don’t even live there but this makes me happy lol


Finally! My parents picked up over 1 inch of rain today for the first time in way too long! We're thankful :D
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#412 Postby underthwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:55 pm

Portastorm wrote:What a wild weather day it was yesterday in the Austin area! Outflow-palooza! Got about an inch and a quarter of liquid gold at the Portastorm Weather Center. Also lost power for more than an hour after a CG lightning bolt with ill intent struck a nearby transformer. Hoping for more rain today.


Outflow palooza!!!.....Rock on Port!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#413 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:49 pm

:wink: Cashed in today with 1.4”

Took me a sec to figure out what that liquid was falling from the sky :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#414 Postby cstrunk » Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:50 am

Looks like the tropical low will hug the Texas coast towards Houston then head up into East Texas. Looks pretty weak and doesn't bring a lot of rainfall with it, except along the coast. But anything is better than nothing.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#415 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:40 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Finally, San Antonio is getting some rain!!! I don’t even live there but this makes me happy lol


Finally! My parents picked up over 1 inch of rain today for the first time in way too long! We're thankful :D


My brother picked up 0.90". So a little more widespread. :)
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#416 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:50 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with easterly winds
this morning turning more southeasterly this afternoon which will
persist through tonight. Scattered coastal storms will impact
HOU, SGR, LBX and GLS through the midmorning before a lull in the
activity. This lull will be short lived as scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop along and south of I-10 this afternoon
impacting potentially IAH southwards. These storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The precipitation will
again dissipate after sunset, but expect additional showers and
thunderstorms Thursday morning and through the day as a low
pressure system approaches from the south.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 503 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Get ready for a wet few days across Southeast Texas. Some nocturnal
thunderstorms developed across the coastal waters early this morning
that may move onshore during the mid morning, but these storms will
dissipated by the late morning. But, additional rain chances are on
the way today. A broad area of low pressure located off the Southern
Texas coastline will be strengthening through the day today. The
northern edge of the rain associated with this developing system
will reach into our region this afternoon, but how far northwards
will heavily depend on the located of the low pressure system. Weak,
unorganized systems like this can be a real forecasting nightmare as
location errors can be very large bringing large differences in the
forecasted rain amounts for a certain location. CAM guidance for
today has been indicating that a band of showers and thunderstorms
will develop across the area along and south of the I-10 corridor in
the mid afternoon and persist through around sunset. PWATs today
will be climbing to around 2 inches along the coast, so the storms
that do develop will be able to produce some locally heavy rainfall.
Generally through the day today rainfall amounts will be between
0.5" to 1.5" with some locally higher totals. However, there will
still be a scattered nature of the developing storms so expect large
variations in the rainfall amounts where one street may get the 1"+
totals while a few streets down may get a trace. Extremely dry
antecedent conditions along the coast will really limit any flooding
potential, but could expect some street ponding in areas of low
lying areas and in areas of poor drainage (construction
areas/underpasses). This is the most likely scenario for today, but
again want to emphasize that the location of the rainfall today will
be highly dependent on the location of the system to our south. If
it develops further south then we could very will get very little
rainfall with the bulk of the storms remaining off the coast, or
could get the storms further inland to the northern part of Harris
County if the system develops further north. The loss of daytime
heating will result in a reduction of the storms later this evening.

This lull in shower activity will not last long as the marine
nocturnal storms develop again after midnight. Then additional
showers and thunderstorms developing across the southern half of
the region. Some isolated storms may extend to Bryan/College
Station area as the low pressure system to the south begins to
move northwards. Additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1" with locally
higher amounts is expected along and south of I-10 on Thursday
with isolated spots of up to 0.5" north of I-10.

Temperatures through the short term will see near seasonal highs
in the low to mid 90s and mild overnight lows in the mid to upper
70s.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

The beginning of the extended period will continue to be highly
dependent upon the evolution and track of the aforementioned surface
low as it pushes inland along the Middle TX coast on Friday. Global
models are in slightly better agreement on the system`s development
in the most recent runs, with the GFS/EC/NAM showing the low to the
southwest of Matagorda Bay by early Friday. As the system advances
inland throughout the course of the day, the local environment will
be favorable for the development of scattered to numerous showers
and storms which at times could result in periods of locally heavy
rain. Total PW values of 2.0-2.25" continue to indicate abundant
moisture availability, while the continued presence of a stalled
frontal boundary and robust PVA in the midlevels will be conducive
to storm development throughout the day. Locations near the coast
will continue to have the greatest chances for locally heavy rain,
with rainfall amounts steadily decreasing to the north of the I-10
corridor. Widespread additional totals of around 0.5-1" near the
coast are expected while areas north of the I-10 corridor should see
widespread values of around 0.25"-0.5". However, heavy downpours may
produce locally higher amounts at some locations and as such the WPC
has placed our southern zones within a Marginal Risk area for
excessive rainfall (i.e., a 5% chance that flash flood guidance will
be exceeded within 25 miles of a given point within the area).
Widespread cloud cover and precipitation will give us our coolest
day in quite some time, with daytime highs maxing out in the upper
80s.

A gradual return to a more typical summertime pattern will begin on
Saturday as the system pushes out of the area, though associated
lingering showers/storms will continue throughout the day. Aloft,
strong midlevel ridging will build back into the South Central CONUS
with 500mb heights reaching around 594-596 dam by early Sunday while
at the surface a steady onshore flow will redevelop. As this pattern
takes hold through the weekend and into next week, a gradual
increase in temperatures will drive highs into the mid/upper 90s by
Monday and the mid/upper 90s by mid-week. Typical sea/bay breeze
thunderstorm activity will keep PoP values around 15-20% across the
southern zones through mid-week, although these chances will begin
to diminish thereafter as mid/upper ridging builds in directly
overhead. Overnight lows remain relatively steady in the upper 70s
inland and low 80s along the coast.

Cady


.MARINE...

A weak area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The
low will move slowly west to west-southwest towards the middle Texas
Coast over the next day or two. As a result, winds of 15 to 20 kts
with gusts to 25 kt and seas up to 4 to 6 feet will persist
through Friday. There will also be continued chances of scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Friday over the Gulf waters.
The low has a medium chance of developing into a short-lived
tropical depression on Thursday before moving into the middle
Texas Coast. Small crafts should exercise caution. There will also
be an increasing risk of rip currents tomorrow through the end of
the week. Rain and thunderstorm chances along with winds and seas
will decrease by the weekend.

Self


.TROPICAL...

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential
for tropical develop of the low pressure system located off of
South Texas (95L) before moving into Southeast Texas. The NHC
gives it a Medium Chance (40%) chance of development into a short
lived Tropical Depression within the next 2 days. Whether or not
this system develops tropical features will not really change the
main impacts to our region which is locally heavy rainfall each
day through Friday along with increased threat of strong rip
currents.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 97 74 94 74 89 / 20 10 30 20 40
Houston (IAH) 95 76 90 77 87 / 40 20 60 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 89 81 86 / 50 40 70 50 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#417 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:35 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Finally, San Antonio is getting some rain!!! I don’t even live there but this makes me happy lol


Finally! My parents picked up over 1 inch of rain today for the first time in way too long! We're thankful :D


My brother picked up 0.90". So a little more widespread. :)


Well that’s great! Happy for you and your family!
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#418 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:58 am

Edwards Limestone wrote::wink: Cashed in today with 1.4”

Took me a sec to figure out what that liquid was falling from the sky :lol:


Yes, I have heard the elders speak of this wet stuff, I believe it's called rain, send some this way my friend!...But seriously, 1.4" sounds great right now.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#419 Postby cstrunk » Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:49 am

Well unfortunately the rain chances from this tropical low over the next few days don't seem like they are going to be very helpful for many people, except for Houston and areas along and very near to the SE TX coast. Other areas of East Texas may average 0.25"-0.5" through Sunday if they get lucky.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022

#420 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:16 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers and thunderstorms are moving their way onshore this
morning impacting LBX, GLS, SGR, and HOU. Coverage of these storms
will expand northwards through the day to IAH and possibly CXO.
The storm activity will diminish this evening inland, but may
persist at the coast through the entire day near GLS and LBX. More
widespread showers and thunderstorm move in from the coast around
midnight tonight bringing SHRA to LBX and GLS. The precipitation
coverage will expand northwards through the night to SGR/HOU by
9-10z, and then to IAH/CXO by sunrise. Precipitation will persist
for most of the day on Friday along and south of I-10 with
scattered showers lingering on Saturday. Periods of heavy rainfall
are possible tonight into Friday resulting in lowering
visibility. MVFR CIGs if 1500-2500ft will begin tonight along with
the rain showers. South to southeasterly winds will persist
through the period.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 417 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

This short term period will be the wettest short term period we have
experienced in quite some time thanks to the surge of tropical
moisture from Invest 95L making its way into SE Texas. This system
is currently located down off the South Texas coast and will be
sliding up into SE Texas tonight into Friday morning. There is a
medium percent chance of development for this system into a short
lived tropical depression, but whether or not it does will not
change the expected impacts. But first we have some of the typical
nocturnal showers and thunderstorms developing over the coastal
waters this morning. This activity will move onshore around
sunrise bringing some early rumbles of thunder across the coastal
counties like yesterday. A very brief lull in thunderstorm
activity between sunrise and the midmorning before the return of
thunderstorms moving up from the coast. Afternoon heating will
help expand the precipitation to most areas south of Conroe.
Expecting scattered coverage like yesterday, so you may experience
nothing or up to an inch of rain depending on where exacting
those storms develop. Those scattered storms will diminish after
sunset, but the main surge of precipitation from the low pressure
system to our south arrives overnight tonight.

The onset of the potential heavy rain tonight may start between
midnight and 3am across the coast, and then up towards the US-59
corridor between 3am and sunrise on Friday. Deep moisture profiles
(saturated up to 400-500mb with PWATs around 2.3") support
rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour for stronger embedded storms
within the more widespread rainfall (0.25" to 0.5" per hour
rates). The 1 and 3 hour FFG for the coast is between 4 and 5"
thanks to the drought conditions, so not expecting any widespread
or major flooding issues. But if there is any training of storms,
then low lying areas and areas of poor drainage could experience
some minor flooding issues (thinking more flood advisory type of
stuff versus flood warning). WPC has placed Harris County and
areas south and east of Harris County in a Slight Risk for
Excessive rainfall for tonight and Friday. The potential for
locally heavy rainfall will persist through the day on Friday,
though there will be a very sharp cutoff of precipitation. Areas
north of Harris County may see very little rainfall through the
short term while areas along the immediate coast may experience 3
to 6" with locally higher amounts to 8". There is a high "bust"
potential with these higher rainfall totals due to this sharp
cutoff and it all depends on where exactly the low pressure system
tracks. With weak, unorganized systems like this disturbance
guidance will struggle on the exact locations. If it ends up
tracking further offshore, then all the heavy rain will stay off
shore. If it ends up sliding more inland, then the heavy rainfall
will follow suit. The most likely scenario though is that portions
of coastal Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers counties
may get those higher rainfall totals.

By Friday evening, expecting the rain to end west of Harris County
with lingering showers and thunderstorms persisting for
Galveston, Chambers, southern Liberty, and eastern Harris
counties. Precipitation will expand in coverage across the
northern portion of the region on Saturday, but more on that in
the Long Term below. With this rainfall, hopefully we can make a
dent in the drought conditions.

Temperatures through the short term will be closer to seasonal
during the daytime hours thanks to cloud cover. For today, expect
highs in the low to mid 90s north of Conroe, upper 80s to low 90s
along the I-10 Corridor, and mid to upper 80s along the coast. With
the rainfall tomorrow, expect temperatures to stay in the 80s area
wide. Overnight lows will remain on the mild side with temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Dense tropical moisture associated with 95L will linger over the
region into Saturday. Therefore, much of the CWA can expect another
day of beneficial rainfall. Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms
are expected to occur considering precipitable water values are
likely to exceed two inches over much of the region. Beyond
Saturday, the heat becomes the primary story once again.

A large building ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather
next week. PoPs will decrease as temperatures become progressively
hotter as 500 mb heights build into the 592-596 dm range. There will
be a risk of isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms. However, I
wouldn`t count on the atmosphere watering your lawn next week.
Conditions are likely to remain quite dry for most locations,
especially once we reach Monday and beyond.

Despite being dry rainfall wise, dew points are unfortunately
looking to be quite high. Heat index values could approach heat
advisory levels (108F) starting on Monday. Drinking plenty of
water will be a must for anyone planning to spend their 4th of
July holiday outside. Temperatures are expected to slowly inch
upward as the week progresses. Most of the latest model guidance
is indicating very little in the way of dry air mixing down to the
surface during the heating of the day. This suggests that heat
index values will be increasing as well. I hope you like water
cause you are going to need it!

Self


.MARINE...

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a disturbance in
the Western Gulf, with a medium chance of this system developing
into a tropical depression today as it pushes westward before
advancing inland along the Middle TX coast tomorrow. Regardless of
the system`s classification as a tropical depression or lack
thereof, it will produce elevated winds and seas across the bays and
coastal waters while also bringing widespread thunderstorms.
Additionally, the rip current risk along Gulf-facing beaches will be
increasing over the next few days as a result. As the system moves
further inland on Saturday, precipitation coverage will decrease and
winds and waves will begin to diminish. Light to moderate onshore
flow with 2-3ft seas will prevail well into next week.

Cady


.TROPICAL...

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the low
pressure system off of South Texas for the potential of tropical
development. Formation chance over the next 2 day is 40 percent
(medium). If it does form, it would be a short lived tropical
depression this afternoon/evening before it moves onshore later
tonight. Whether or not it forms will have little influence on the
expected impacts to the area with locally heavy rain along the
coast being the main concern.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 74 88 75 89 / 30 10 50 30 50
Houston (IAH) 89 76 86 76 89 / 70 50 80 40 70
Galveston (GLS) 87 80 88 82 88 / 80 70 80 40 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
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